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Redcliffe form analysis for Thursday 12 October

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Redcliffe form analysis for Thursday 12 October RACE ONE

BLUE EYED CREATION (5) looked to take them all the way from gate 1 at AP last start over the 2138m trip when running fav. Setting a tempo that he couldn’t sustain he faded out. In his previous 6 starts, he had been runner-up on 5 occasions and back to Redcliffe in this field he looks to get his chance.

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (4) worked hard in the run over this trip 2 starts back and couldn’t finish it off. Last start he was coming with a strong closing burst over this same trip after starting from the 2nd line and went within a head of victory. In an open contest he can feature.

IDEAL HOLMBOY (1) will strip fitter following 1 run back from a break when starting from a 2nd line draw. That was a much tougher contest than he meets here and he has the benefit of the ace draw. With a cosy trip he can look to find a podium position.

IM ROLLING STONED (7) does well under these types of conditions and can look to offer a late challenge. 3 starts back she started from the 2nd line and was able to weave a passage to score over the 2040m trip. Facing a big ask from the 2nd line in a Gold Pot final last start she is better suited in this.

SELECTIONS: BLUE EYED CREATION (5), SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (4), IDEAL HOLMBOY (1), IM ROLLING STONED (7)
SUGGESTED BET: BLUE EYED CREATION (5) to win
 
RACE TWO

THERESACHANCE (1) has placed in 3 of his past 4 starts with 2 of those when starting off the 2nd row and the other from gate 6. He hit the line strongly last start when running home in good sectionals and the start prior had merit when he worked forward to find the front. With the improved gate he looks to get his chance.

ARCH EMPRESS (7) has been given a freshen following a 4-start career opening prep. Successful at her 2nd outing she was able to lead all the way and post an 8m margin. Her effort last start when working wide off the track after starting from gate 6 was good and with the cosy trip can take the last shot.

MODERN THOUGHT (8) hasn’t been too far away of late and has been able to place in 3 of her past 5 starts. Working forward from gate 4 last start she worked in the run and fought on gamely to be within 2m of the winner PITTSWORTH MAN. She can drop down to the pegs for a cheap run and can place with that run.

DONT ARK WITH ME (4) scored a maiden breaking win here 3 starts back after finding a suitable target and was sent forward early from the 2nd line. Pressing on to the front she held the chasing pack off. Settling in a handy spot from this gate she has some claims.

SELECTIONS: THERESACHANCE (1), ARCH EMPRESS (7), MODERN THOUGHT (8), DONT ARK WITH ME (4)
SUGGESTED BET: THERESACHANCE (1) to win

RACE THREE

REGAL NIGHTSHADE (5) resumes from a break and has featured in a stable change since he last raced. Now prepared by Mark Dux, he was beaten no further than 5m at each of his last 3 starts in much tougher races than what he meets here including a tidy mid-field finish in a Rising Stars final. He looks to get into this race nicely.

SPLASH OF GOLD (1) will strip fitter following 1 run back from a spell and can look to make the most of her gate advantage here. Returning over the 1780m trip last start she was sent to the post as the fav when beaten 1.5m after striking some trouble in the run. The gat is a big plus and she looks the best of the rest.

COUNTOURLUCKYSTARS (7) can look to secure the cosy trip from this gate and limiting the early burn can be looking to fill a minor placing. 2 starts back she took on a stand-start race at Albion Park and was buried away on the pegs when holding her ground.
 
ARCHIECANO (8) started from gate 4 when working home wide off the track and hitting the line in good order 4 starts ago when grabbing 2nd. He was out of his depth last start in a qualifier taken out by MAVE ROONRAKER and returning here to the triangle is a big plus.


SELECTIONS: REGAL NIGHTSHADE (5), SPLASH OF GOLD (1), COUNTOURLUCKYSTARS (7), ARCHIECANO (8)
SUGGESTED BET:  REGAL NIGHTSHADE (5) to win

RACE FOUR

SONNY SAVEAO (5) has placed at his past 3 runs in succession with the latest when working forward to face the breeze at AP over the 2138m trip. With a strong closing 800m panel, he held on gamely for 3rd. That followed a pair of 2nd placed efforts and he gets the chance to be sent forward early here and taking control will be hard to stop.

BOB GAGE (10) should appreciate this type of race and went within a nose of victory 2 starts back when taking on a very similar race and starting from the same gate. Sent forward there to face the breeze, he battled all the way. With the right luck in the run he can go mighty close.

CHANG (2) has finished in the money at 3 of his past 5 starts the latest a strong effort to hold the silver. Sent forward from gate 6 he worked in the run when finishing 2.5m from the winner ZEROS SHOUT. He can be 1st to the pegs and with the options thereafter is right in the fight.

MASTER MONTANA (9) was successful in a Gold Pot final 5 starts back when pressing forward to find the front and keep them chasing over the 1660m trip. His latest run was here on Tuesday where he was buried away in a strong race against the markers pegs.

SELECTIONS: SONNY SAVEAO (5), BOB GAGE (10), CHANG (2), MASTER MONTANA (9)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE FIVE

MIRACLESDOAPPEN (1) will look to make it successive wins after breaking through for a deserved win last start over this trip. Sent forward from gate 5 she worked her way to the front and once in control packed too many guns. That followed a strong 2nd from gate 6 and with the improved gate she can look to control this.

LEVI JADE (2) looked to have found his race last start from this same gate and was sent to the post in red figures. Unable to find the pegs, he worked in the run and held on for the bronze behind the swooping MERRYLANDS MISS. He will be hoping to secure some running line cover and if he does, won’t be far away.

TARIN KOWT (9) out-toughed them over the 2040m trip here on the triangle 5 starts back when facing the breeze and holding on for the win. Placing at his next start, he returned a strong 2nd when finishing 1.5m from RIVERBOAT PRINCE. Freshened since his last start he has place claims here.

RED ROCKER (10) scored over the 1780m trip here 5 starts back when working home wide out and coming with a closing play to arrive in the stretch for a 2m victory. He has been off the 2nd row in every start since that and despite gate 10 again he can be working home into the money.


SELECTIONS: MIRACLESDOAPPEN (1), LEVI JADE (2), TARIN KOWT (9), RED ROCKER (10)
SUGGESTED BET: MIRACLESDOAPPEN (1) to win

RACE SIX

NUI TOC TIEN (10) has been in the money at 4 of his past 5 starts, the latest when a 5m 3rd to RUATO BAY after starting in red figures. Sitting in the breeze after launching from gate 2, he was unable to reel in the leader and winner. His run 4 starts bag was solid and while needing some luck off this gate, he gets his chance.

RAZEN TROUBLE (1) started from a 2nd line gate here 3 starts back and hit the line strongly to grab the silver behind RUATO BAY and finishing ahead of NUI TOC TIEN. His 2 starts since that run he has been well held in strong races at AP and returning to the triangle, he lands the perfect gate to take the all the way. Big threat.

RUBYS BAD BOY (3) returned a tough effort 3 starts back when holding on for 2nd and franked that with a solid win over the 2040m trip here after starting from gate 6. Settling well back in the run, he finished hard to take the win. His run on Tues had merit and he won’t be far away in this.

FRENCH GLOBE (6) has the wide gate to contend with, but if able to find position without burning too hard he will have some bullets for the finish. Last start from gate 5 over the 2040m he was sent forward and did the hard yards and proved too strong. That followed a forgive run and from the gate can podium.

SELECTIONS: NUI TOC TIEN (10), RAZEN TROUBLE (1), RUBYS BAD BOY (3), FRENCH GLOBE (6)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics with 1-3-6-10

RACE SEVEN

AARCADO (2) resumed off a break from gate 5 over the 2040m trip and was working home strongly after coursing wide the latter stages and went under a head. Starting fav a this 2nd up run from gate 10, he was given plenty of time to find his rhythm before arriving in time for the win. From the improved gate he can settle closer and look to get his chance.

ELMAUR JOY (3) secured the pocket trail over the 2040m trip and went within a head of victory. Off the 6 hole for her next outing she was taken back and then closed out the race strongly to take victory. Luckless here last start, she can take an early shot for the pegs and will have some chance from in-front.

EMARGEE (1) resumes from a spell and lands the perfect gate for her return. 5 starts back she led all the way for victory at Armidale and then took on tougher assignment at her next few. Her last run prior to spelling she finished 2nd in a stand start when beaten 5m. The draw helps.

MERRYLANDS MISS (8) made in 2 wins in 5 starts with a swooping finish here last week to arrive and put some space in them near the line. She ran some tidy closing panels to take the win and despite facing a tough gate, if she can get the right trail into the race she will sprinting hard in the stretch.

SELECTIONS: AARCADO (2), ELMAUR JOY (3), EMARGEE (1), MERRYLANDS MISS (8)
SUGGESTED BET: AARCADO (2) to win

RACE EIGHT

IMA SEA STORM (1) has been contending with some unsuitable gates in recent starts which have hampered his performances. He has been releasing the front but over the sprint trip and no real pressure to his outside, he can look to hold top and take them all the way to turn his fortunes around.

YOUNG AMERICAN (7) returns to Qld following and is now prepared by Shane Graham. He should be tightened for 3 runs back following a 9 month break with the latest a 3rd over the long trip at Newcastle. He will be seating on the 1 looking to go all the way and will take the closing shot.

MISTER ELEGANT (4) has now faced the starter 3 times since returning from a lay-off with the latest effort a tough performance when facing the breeze and fighting on to be within 4m of the winner WIN OR DIE. His return effort in a band event was strong and he can look to have an early dip for the front and if getting there, his stocks will rise sharply.

RORY MACH (9) was beaten 8m in a claiming race on Tues to warm-up for this with his past 4 starts having been in the claiming ranks. 5 starts back his effort in a Rising Stars final was tidy and with even luck in transit from this gate can fill the exotics.

SELECTIONS: IMA SEA STORM (1), YOUNG AMERICAN (7), MISTER ELEGANT (4), RORY MACH (9)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 1-4-7-9
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