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Racing and Sports' early thoughts: Queensland Oaks

2 June 2022

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By Simon Dinopoulos

Race favourite Gypsy Goddess will start from the car park on Saturday but what does it actually mean for her chances?

Barriers only become important if they dictate your settling position.

If drawing barrier 22 resulted in Gypsy Goddess settling at the rear then, yes, it is important.

However, if they elect to roll forward and negate the wide draw, suddenly it all means nothing.

It would come as no surprise that leaders have the best strike rate over 2200 metres at Eagle Farm, close to 20 per cent.

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That percentage almost halves for horses who are positioned fifth on the turn.

When looking at runners who are positioned 10th or worse suddenly your likelihood of success is very poor.

Ridden cold in the Gold Coast Bracelet last start, Gypsy Goddess was defeated for the third time this preparation, however it was not due to a lack of talent.

She ran a similar race in the Vinery Stud Stakes when allowed to find her feet towards the rear of the field.

On both occasions she was beaten by poor race tactics.

In the Australian Oaks it was game on from the outset, hunted forward to settle on-speed.

She was again beaten on the day, however that is easily the best piece of staying form we’ve seen this season, it was a true staying test.

On Saturday she strikes a good track for just the second time this preparation, a key pointer to her likely success.

Looking at her first campaign, she was successful on a soft track, however her best efforts against the clock were on top of the ground.

That was the chink coming to Sydney and while she has performed well, adamant she will be much better suited on Saturday.

Eagle Farm is a horses for courses set up and she is unbeaten in two attempts.

Gypsy Goddess' rider William Pike is striking at 42 per cent over this distance range this season (19 rides) and 20 per cent overall (556 rides).

He is slightly beating the market the last six months (69 wins against an expected 64) and while yet to win aboard Gypsy Goddess, this looks his best chance and she is currently her biggest price this preparation.

All aboard!