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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Apr 20

Form Analysis: Albion Park Apr 20

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

COLT THIRTY ONE (4)
will resume from a freshen and the Derby winner should be able to toy with his rivals here. Powering home to win the Victorian Blue Riband event 3 starts back he was then a NSW Derby Heat winner. Gunned down after setting the tempo in the Final by the star colt POSTER BOY, they will be lining up for the minor placings.

MISTER BLACKJACK (1) returns from a freshen and was last seen in a Rising Stars heat when not comfortable and well beaten. His form prior to that run was solid and included an all the way win here 5 starts back. With the speed to hold the front early and the cosy trip he can run the exacta.

BUMPER (3) had 2 starts to resume his 4YO term and was not beaten far in either, the most recent when 3rd to FIRE AND ICE and holding his ground in a 55.4 closing 800m sectional. He will take benefit from the run and will pay to follow.

WOODLEA BEAU (8) returns to Qld and should be fitter following 4 runs back from a 2 year break. Resuming in late January at Goulburn he was 10m from the winner when finding the line well. With a trial win over subsequent AP winner GOVINNI, he stays under notice with the easy trip from gate 8.

SELECTIONS: COLT THIRTY ONE (4), MISTER BLACKJACK (1), BUMPER (3), WOODLEA BEAU (8)
SUGGESTED BET: Peg line trifecta 4-1-8

RACE TWO

MY PRECIOUS YANKEE (1) returns to the track following a 4 start beginning to his career where he displayed obvious ability when taking on seasoned horses. 2 starts back he led them up and was only grabbed on the line by the 11 time winning LOCHABER. Stepping cleanly he will give them plenty to chase.

HIGH CLOUD LASS (3) settled in the pocket trail last start at Redcliffe and when easing into space ran home to grab the silver when 2m from the winner IVANOV. Now runner-up at 8 of her past 9 starts, she is safe at the tapes and if she hasn’t forgot to get past the line 1st, can do it here.

JUSTABITLIKEMUM (2) started in red figures here 2 starts back and from the pocket trail could only manage a 5m 4th to ZAIRE DIVA. Buried 3 back last start she was 10m from the winner LANSBURY and with the 10m advantaged over the 3rd line can look to make the most of things early.

GALAXY HUNTER (6) pressed forward early and found good position from the 30m tape to grab the silver behind STEVES STAR at Redcliffe 4 starts back. A Marburg winner 2 starts back when giving HIGH CLOUD LASS 10m more than he does today, he looks well placed here and can challenge.

SELECTIONS: MY PRECIOUS YANKEE (1), HIGH CLOUD LASS (3), JUSTABITLIKEMUM (2), GALAXY HUNTER (6)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-2-3-6

RACE THREE

SOMWHEREOVARAINBOW (5) put things together to score his 1st 3YO victory here 3 starts back and closed strongly from back in the pack to land a 4m victory. Hitting the line hard in a Gold Pot heat to run MAYWYNS COURAGE to a half-neck, the tempo was against him in the final. He looks to have every chance in this line-up.

QUEEN ZENOBIA (1) will strip fitter flowing her latest run when 2nd up and forced to work hard after the sulky tire was flattened. Landing gates 6 and 7 at the 2 runs back, she can look to make the most of the improved gate and lighting the lamps will give them something to chase.

MEANT TO BE ME (8) has been freshened since her last start when finishing strongly down the centre of the track for a tidy win. That was well deserved after bumping into some handy fillies in her previous few runs and with the cosy trip here has podium claims.

TORQUE FEELS GOOD (2) has faced 2nd line gates at her past 4 starts and will relish the return to the front line. Forget her last start when striking trouble, with the right run in transit she looks an exotic hope.

SELECTIONS: SOMWHEREOVARAINBOW (5), QUEEN ZENOBIA (1), MEANT TO BE ME (8), TORQUE FEELS GOOD (2)
SUGGESTED BET: SOMWHEREOVARAINBOW (5) to win

RACE FOUR

STIRLING WILLIAM (3)
is another that will see his best gate in some time and has been doing a great job from wider gates that includes placings in 4 of his past 5 starts, Taken back from gate 6 here on Tues in a conditioned race he was hitting the line strongly last start and was only 8m from the winner FIFTH EDITION. This is well within reach.

COMPLY OR DIE (4) is better suited at the mile yet he is still effective at this trip and with his brilliant early speed can find the pegs and look to pinch a panel in the middle stages and then fight them off. His run in a Band 5 race on Sat was a good effort when 7m from the winner and back to the claiming ranks looks ideal.

IMA MORVEN LAD (2) had a shot for the front off gate 5 last start in a claiming challenge heat but was unable to get across and under the circumstances the run was a tidy effort. From his best gate since returning this campaign, he can find the pegs first and then have the options and is right in the fight here.

MOHEGAN SUN (1) should get a perfect trail here and be ready to strike in the stretch. Forget he went around on Tues where he struck trouble, his run from the trail 3 back was good when 7m from the in-form INA GREAT PLACE and he has exotic hopes here.

SELECTIONS: STIRLING WILLIAM (3), COMPLY OR DIE (4), IMA MORVEN LAD (2), MOHEGAN SUN (1)
SUGGESTED BET: STIRLING WILLIAM (3) to win

RACE FIVE

THE CARINGBAH KID (9) gets in here on a big class drop having been meeting much stronger types than he faces here. 4 starts back he worked hard in the run facing the breeze when beaten 3m and in 2 of his past 3 has been beaten by JOSSIE JAMES and ROCK WITH SAM. He gets every possible in this even from the 2nd line.

MY WINGMAN (2) will strip fitter from his latest start when resuming at Marburg in a stand start race. He gets back to mobile conditions here which suit and with good speed off the arm can look to get to the front early and if able to get an easy time in front can sneak away for the prize.

MY AJAYE (8) was a winner here on Tues when finding the front and once in control was able to get a big 2nd panel breather and hold on for the win. He will need plenty of luck from this gate but if he can force into space with track to work with can feature.

SLIPASLYGRIN (6) has a tricky gate but can look to work across and apply the heat here. On Tues from gate 5 he worked across to the breeze and fought hard when beaten 5m behind MY AJAYE and rolling forward here will in the fight once again.

SELECTIONS: THE CARINGBAH KID (9), MY WINGMAN (2), MY AJAYE (8), SLIPASLYGRIN (6)
SUGGESTED BET:
THE CARINGBAH KID (9) to win

RACE SIX

ROCK WITH SAM (8)
shoots for the hat-trick after successive wins here over the mile. Holding up from gate 2 last start he was never in danger and put them away in a 55.8 closing 800m when never tested. The 1 is a fast beginner and he will just need to see the gaps in time to take this.

ONLY ONE PROMISE (6) is having a superb season and has missed the money just once from 11 starts for the term. A Rising Stars final winner 3 starts back when finishing over the top his latest win was when and rolling up the sleeves and doing it tough in the breeze. He is a big threat.

WESTERN COVE (1) has started twice since arriving in Qld and been rundown on both occasions when looking to go all the way. His latest run was a much sharper effort when 6.5m from HEZ RAZOR SHARP and in front he will be gripping to the lead.

COULDNTBETOLD (4) found the line in good order here 3 starts back when 7m from SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE and was luckless at his next run from gate 7. Taken back to Redcliffe he was too strong in scoring easily running nice closing sections. He can podium from this alley.
 

SELECTIONS: ROCK WITH SAM (8), ONLY ONE PROMISE (6), WESTERN COVE (1), COULDNTBETOLD (4)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 6-8 / 6-8/ 1-3-4-5

RACE SEVEN

BODHI TREE (3) will be further tightened from his latest start when 2nd up since returning to Qld and after a 5 week break between runs. From the pocket trail he held his ground to the line to finish 4.5m in arrears of the winner CLINTAL DO. From the good gate he can look to press forward early and taking control can land AP win number 13.

PSYCHEDELIC (1) aimed for the hat-trick last start in a Rising Stars Final and after settling back in the running line finished over the top to score a nice win. From the ace gate he can look to take the trail early and with the cosy trip will be looking to take the closing shot.
GEORGIA GRACE (8) is likely to be buried in the run here but once she can see space will be sprinting sharply. A Band 5 winner 2 starts back when too good from the front and ripping home a slick closing panel, she met a strong mid-week FFA last start. With the luck she is in the mix.

OUTLAW FELLA (7) has the tough gate to overcome but he is a consistent performer that is never far from the action. Last start he rolled to the front over the 2138m trip and it was only the passing lane winner JACKAROO BROMAC that got past him. He has exotic claims with the tough gate.

SELECTIONS: BODHI TREE (3), PSYCHEDELIC (1), GEORGIA GRACE (8), OUTLAW FELLA (7)
SUGGESTED BET: BODHI TREE (3) to win