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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Apr 28

Form Analysis: Albion Park Apr 28

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

BEST BET
R9 N2 NEWMERELLA SHARKIE

KEEN ON
R10 N5 FRANCO TOTEM

QUADDIE

L1- 2-4-6-10
L2- 1-3
L3- 4-9
L4- 1-2
 

RACE ONE

CASINO TOMMY (10)
was an all the way winner from gate 1 here 4 starts back running a strong 2138m. He followed that with a tough run from the breeze and last start was hitting the line nicely for 2nd to THE SHADY ONE. He will need some factors to go his way but he is knocking on the door.

JESSICA AMBER (2) has been runner-up at her past 2 starts when looking to take them all the way on each occasion. Last start at Redcliffe she was grabbed right on the post to go under a nose. This is harder but if she can pinch a panel in front can run a bold race.

TOP TRIO (5) rolled to the front from gate 3 last start and once in control took them all the way. He had been racing well from bad gates leading into the last start and is in the mix here.

ANNIKA MAGIC (3) will take further benefit from her latest run when 2nd up off a freshen. Pressing forward from a wide gate she finished strongly in good time at Redcliffe and can go well here.

SELECTIONS: CASINO TOMMY (10), JESSICA AMBER (2), TOP TRIO (5), ANNIKA MAGIC (3)
SUGGESTED BET: CASINO TOMMY (10) to win

RACE TWO

OUTLAW FELLA (4) has been runner-up in 3 of his past 6 including the last 2 in succession. Rolling forward from gate 7 last start he worked hard in the breeze outside BODHI TREE and went within a head of victory. He can settle close to the speed here and finish the strongest.

MAFUTA VAUTIN (6) was too far back from a 2nd line gate last start when the race was controlled at the front by the winner FRANKIE ROCKS. His closing sections were still strong and in this he can look  to get a nice cart into the contest and will be descending on them in the closing stages.

CROFT BAY (10) came from the same race as MAFUTA VAUTIN last week and was doing his best work in the closing stages. He will need some luck from this gate but with even luck is right in this.

MARKEY OH MARKEY (2) has started 3 times this campaign and been off the 2nd line in each. With a return to the front line and with good early speed he can show some sharp improvement.

SELECTIONS: OUTLAW FELLA (4), MAFUTA VAUTIN (6), CROFT BAY (10), MARKEY OH MARKEY (2)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 2-4-6-10

RACE THREE

SWEET AS (1) won a mares qualifier 5 starts back and then struggled at her next 2. From this gate over this trip 2 starts back she took the pocket trail and held the silver behind the all the way winner SPARKLING CULLECT. Her run was strong last week behind FRANKIE ROCKS and from the gate will be poised to strike.

DRIVE THE DREAM (3) was buried in the run last start off a 2nd line gate and found the line in good order to be 7m from the winner TOP TRIO. Only beaten a half-head here 5 starts back when drawn to take them all the way, she can spear out early and try to dictate.

FEEL THE FAITH (4) loomed up strongly from the breeze looking to put the leader away at the 250m but went off stride and ended her chances. Fitter now from 2 runs back she can atone here.

WITH AUTHORITY (8) finished strongly to score here 3 back. He will need his share of luck from this gate as the map looks to see him buried but with the cosy trip can be probing for gaps and closing hard.

SELECTIONS: SWEET AS (1), DRIVE THE DREAM (3), FEEL THE FAITH (4), WITH AUTHORITY (8)
SUGGESTED BET: SWEET AS (1) to win

RACE FOUR

SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (4)
took them all the way to win a Rising Stars heat 3 starts back and hold them off comfortably over the mile. Luckless from inside the 2nd line in the Final he was again void of luck off gate 12 last start and wide off the track. He can fire the early shots here and dictate terms.

CLINTAL DO (9) started from gate 6 last start over the 2138m and was a red figure fav to open his band assessment. Rolling forward at the mile he was then left parked but was a spent force at the 400m. He can look to get an easier run through here and issue the challenge.

PLAYNSERIOUS (2) worked into the race to face the breeze from gate 12 here 2 starts back and once he was in the breeze held them all off. Back to the good gate he can feature in this.

PARISIAN ROCKSTAR (3) out it together here on Tues to take them all the way after looking to have his chance in his 2 runs prior. With the confidence from the win he can feature again here.

SELECTIONS: SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (4), CLINTAL DO (9), PLAYNSERIOUS (2), PARISIAN ROCKSTAR (3)
SUGGESTED BET: SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (4) to win

RACE FIVE

VILLAGE WITCH (2) led from this gate over this trip last week and it was only the breezing FRANKIE ROCKS that was too good in winning an M0 event. She was a tidy winner from the trail over the 2138m trip 2 starts back and with the speed to take up the running here is the one to beat.

SMOOTH SHOWGIRL (1) was a mid-week FFA winner here 3 starts back when sitting at the rear and watching the speed up front and then coming with a well-timed sprint to score. Facing 2nd line draws at her past 2 starts, she looks certain to enjoy a great trip and will be ready to issue the closing shot.

ALLELUIA (8) will take good benefit from his run last week when resuming off a 7 week break between runs. Sent to the front his condition faded when 4m from the winner. With a soft trip he will be closing hard.

JOYS A BABE (3) looks likely to do some work in the run here and might not be able to finish them off after the tough run. A mid-week winner 3 starts back she will be fighting all the way.

SELECTIONS: VILLAGE WITCH (2), SMOOTH SHOWGIRL (1), JOYS A BABE (3), ALLELUIA (8)
SUGGESTED BET: VILLAGE WITCH (2) to win

RACE SIX

THE HARLEM HAMMER (4)
couldn’t find position last start and had to snag back to the rear and from the back then had it all against her with the leader and winner zipping home in a sub 56 800m section. This looks easier than what she has been meeting and back to mares only is a huge plus. With good early speed she can look to fire off the arm and from the front dictate.

SKYLARHAIN (1) looked to take them all the way in a similar race 2 starts back and after setting an even tempo was grabbed near the post to finis 4m from the winner ROCKONBYE. Her run was fair last week behind FIRE ONE and from the gate can enjoy a cosy trip.

INVITE ONLY (5) turned in a good effort in a mares race 2 starts back and after unable to find position closed out well behind GET IN THE GROOVE. She goes around Redcliffe Thurs and is in the mix.

MISS KENNY (10) makes her Qld debut for the Adam Richardson barn and arrives with handy form around the South-West of NSW. A Wagga winner 3 starts back when closing strongly she has podium claims.

SELECTIONS: THE HARLEM HAMMER (4), SKYLARHAIN (1), INVITE ONLY (5), MISS KENNY (10)
SUGGESTED BET: THE HARLEM HAMMER (4) to win

RACE SEVEN

MAYWYN NO REGRETS (5) has missed the money just once in 5 career starts and that came when 4th in the Paleface Adios Classic from a 2nd line gate and only beaten 4m behind MISS MONEYBAGS. Scratched from the fillies Repechage, she lines up here and despite the wide gate gets her chance.

TIMELESS APPEAL (4) will take further benefit from her latest run when finding the front early from gate 4 and then releasing the speed and holding on for the silver behind MISS MONEYBAGS. With similar tactics she will be in the perfect position and can land in the money again.

OVERTHEMOON (8) started fav last start at Redcliffe off the back of an eye-catcher here 2 starts back when flashing home late. Unable to find position he was too far back and although likely to be buried here, look for him swooping late.

SEA HAWKE (6) worked hard in the run at debut when facing the breeze outside MAYWYN NO REGRETS. Making the most of gate 1 last start he finished best up the passing lane and has place claims here.

SELECTIONS: MAYWYN NO REGRETS (5), TIMELESS APPEAL (4), OVERTHEMOON (8), SEA HAWKE (6)
SUGGESTED BET: MAYWYN NO REGRETS (5) to win

Insufficient exposed form from these 2YO's for speedmap

RACE EIGHT

NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (2)
lands his best gate for some time and comes into this as the runner-up at his past 3 in succession. He found the line nicely last start behind the smart ARGYLE BEACH to make it successive runs she has beaten him. This looks a perfect race for him and he gets every chance.

VANTO HANOVER (8) went back from gate 6 at Redcliffe last start and was working home strongly to arrive in time for a tidy win over the 2040m trip. Given a freshen since that win, she will need a slice of luck from this gate but will be charging home when the gaps arrive.

LEO THE LION (1) stepped away well from the tapes at Marburg 3 starts back and once in front was able to control the tempo to score. Too far back on the grass at Kilcoy last start he should get a great run in transit.

THE DREAM MAKER (5) arrived from NZ with some handy numbers and went straight into a Rising Stars heat where she made an error. Trialling twice in good order since that, if she brings her NZ form she is a threat.

SELECTIONS: NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (2), VANTO HANOVER (8), LEO THE LION (1), THE DREAM MAKER (5)
SUGGESTED BET: NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (2) to win

RACE NINE

COLT THIRTY ONE (7)
was clinical in putting them away in the heat of this series when working to the breeze and then displaying his class to pull away to an 8m victory. He will take good benefit from that run and can press ahead here and assert his dominance. Bigger things lie ahead for this star on the rise.

ROCK WITH SAM (11) was away from the pegs early in the heat and sent to the breeze was then able to control the tempo and forge clear for a strong 5m victory. He gets no favours from the gate but with 3 wins in succession he can look to finish best of the chasing pack.

FIRE AND ICE (2) was wide in the early stages before having to retreat to find position in his heat behind ROCK WITH SAM. Quick out of the machine he can be 1st to the pegs and then has options.

OASIS DREAM (1) found the line in good order in the heat to get within 9m of the winner COLT THIRTY ONE. He maps to get the perfect trip here and can close out late to finish in the money.

SELECTIONS: COLT THIRTY ONE (7), ROCK WITH SAM (11), FIRE AND ICE (2), OASIS DREAM (1)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifecta 7/ 1-2-8-11

RACE TEN

FRANCO TOTEM (5)
was a long way back in the pack last start and was rattling home in the closing stages to finish 5.5m from the winner PSYCHEDELIC. He ran the fastest closing 800m of the night in that run and after taking a few runs to wind up this campaign, he looks to get every chance in this.

LEVI JADE (1) should get a great run from this gate and be in a perfect position when things get serious. His form has been fair in similar type races that included a nice 2nd to YANKEE STRUTTER. Given a pipe opener at Redcliffe on Thurs, the gate suits.

MONIVAE (3) settled with running line cover last start over the 2138m trip when fighting on to claim the bronze behind SUBTLE DELIGHT. With good early speed he can take a shot early and is right in the mix.

PROJECTILE (8) resumes from a spell and lands the perfect gate first up. He should enjoy a cosy trip and be ready to issue a challenge when the gaps open.

SELECTIONS: FRANCO TOTEM (5), LEVI JADE (1), MONIVAE (3), PROJECTILE (8)
SUGGESTED BET: FRANCO TOTEM (5) to win