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  4. Form Analysis: Redcliffe Apr 5

Form Analysis: Redcliffe Apr 5

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

HEAVENS HURRICANE (2)
gets in here on a big class drop and looks to pack too much for this line-up. In 3 of his past 5 starts he has run into RED CHARMER, OUR MAJOR DAY and COREY WILLIAM and returned good efforts in each. Looks a case of first out, first home.

WAVEDANCER (4) has started 5 times since returning from a break and been in the money in 4 of those. Last start from the pocket trail he held on for the bronze behind MATRON JUJON which followed a 3rd behind BETTOR WATCH HIM. Another placing looks available here.

JACK DOUBLEYOU (7) will need a slice of luck from the gate and be looking to find the gaps when they open. He worked home in good order last start at Marburg to be 7m from the winner after working wide out and will be probing for openings.

YARRAMAN DOLLY (6) was well supported last start when making her race debut off the back of a nice trial effort. Making a complete mess of her debut she was sent back to the trials where she was again returned a nice trial. If she gets it right she can be much better this time around.

SELECTIONS: HEAVENS HURRICANE (2), WAVEDANCER (4), JACK DOUBLEYOU (7), YARRAMAN DOLLY (6)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 2 /4-6-7 / 4-6-7

RACE TWO

MONIVAE (3) has been meeting some stronger types than he meets here following 4 runs since arriving in Qld. 1st up he used the passing lane to claim the silver behind the in-form STATEMENT MADE. Last start in a 2nd division qualifier he was charging late after settling back in the pack from a 2nd line gate and looks to get his chance here.

RUATO BAY (1) released the speed 2 starts back and once he secured the cosy run made the most of the passing lane to sprint sharply to victory in the closing stages. He can look to repeat that pattern here and with the soft trip will be making the closing play.

MONTCALM (7) is the lone 2nd line runner so can look to get way from the pegs early if need be. Close to a fitness peak now following 4 runs back from a break, this will be easier than his latest assignment behind LUCIFERS LEGEND.

SHEZABONNYGEM (4) finishes top 3 in 50% of her Redcliffe appearances and she looks to get the chance to continue that here. A tough run for the bronze here 3 starts back followed with a tidy effort at AP on Sat night behind DARK ENERGY. She can feature again here.

SELECTIONS: MONIVAE (3), RUATO BAY (1), MONTCALM (7), SHEZABONNYGEM (4)
SUGGESTED BET: MONIVAE (3) to win

RACE THREE

NICKY MATTGREGOR (1) was buried away on the pegs last start over the 2040m trip and using the passing lane finished best to arrive in time for the victory. 3 starts back at AP she found the line nicely for the bronze behind NOTMUCHUPTOP and with a cosy run in transit gets a repeat chance.

OYSTER STRIDE (4) had the speed to hold them out off gate 1 last start and once in control with no pressure dictated terms for an all the way win. He can look to get forward here and looking to get across to the pegs he can give some cheek once again.

SOPHIES PRIDE (2) finished off strongly from the running line 3 starts back and arrived in time to take victory. Following that with a bronze from the pocket trail she can podium in this with the right run.

FLASHING GOOD TIME (9) was wide off the track last start when looking to work into the contest after starting from the 2nd line. Only 2m from the winner 2 starts back she has some hope in this.

SELECTIONS: NICKY MATTGREGOR (1), OYSTER STRIDE (4), SOPHIES PRIDE (2), FLASHING GOOD TIME (9)
SUGGESTED BET: NICKY MATTGREGOR (1) to win

RACE FOUR

MILLY BROMAC (2)
will have her chances decided at the start and if able to muster the speed to find the pegs she will be right in this. If she can’t get across, that may well be her race done. Not suited off the 2nd line her last 2, going with her to find the front and in control take them all the way.
 
MAHALO (1) has the favours of the options here and stay out of any furious speed battle if necessary. Last start at Marburg she chased home in good order for 3rd to NOTMUCHUPTOP and 2 back was grabbed late when looking to go all the way.

LONG LEGS LOU (7) secured the pocket trail from this gate last start and chased home for the silver behind TELLELLA, Only 4m from GINA MACH 2 starts back she will be probing for the gaps late.

NEVERHAVEIEVER (9) rolled forward from gate 3 last start and was forced to work hard in the run when fading off after the work behind TELLELLA. She attacked the line strongly the start prior and can be steaming home again here.

SELECTIONS: MILLY BROMAC (2), MAHALO (1), LONG LEGS LOU (7), NEVERHAVEIEVER (9)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-2-7-9

RACE FIVE

ALWAYS MY MATE (5) was a big winner last start at Marburg when pressing forward in the middle stages to find the front and keep the tempo on to score by a big margin and set a new track record in the process. This will be his 1st race start at Redcliffe but with a big trial win here, he can take this.

PLAYNSERIOUS (1) held the front off gate 1 last time out at AP and looked to dictate when run-down in the closing stages and beaten a half-head by PSYCHEDELIC. With the speed to hold early, he will then have available options and has some chance here.

ANNIKA MAGIC (8) resumes from a freshen and was last seen when only beaten 7m behind FIREBBY. That followed a nice effort when 3.5m away over 2138m at AP and with a strong record on the triangle warrants inclusion.

MASTER MONTANA (7) looks likely to get a cosy trip here and can look to sprint when the gaps appear. Taken back to look for luck last start off a wide gate, the soft run will suit here.

SELECTIONS: ALWAYS MY MATE (5), PLAYNSERIOUS (1), ANNIKA MAGIC (8), MASTER MONTANA (7)
SUGGESTED BET: ALWAYS MY MATE (5) to win

RACE SIX

COAST WARNING (8)
has been winless since August and despite a 2nd line gate he strikes a winnable contest where many of these are looking for a breakthrough. Off gate 10 last start he couldn’t get into the race in the closing stages. He gets a chance in a wide-open contest.

HOT DOGMA (9) has been in the money in 3 of his past 5 starts. 3 starts back he was best of the chasing pack behind the big winner BANGKOK BRAVADO and last start he again was best of the pack behind JOEY TEE at Marburg. He shouldn’t be far away.

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (4) will be fitter for 2 runs back from a break with the latest when releasing the front over the sprint trip and finishing 10m behind CRYPTIC CHANCE.  He can roll forward to find position and has claims.

ARES (3) is yet to win in Australia and has a winless stretch dating back almost 3 years, He will be fitter for 2 runs back from a break and if able to settle closer than last start can be an improver.

SELECTIONS: COAST WARNING (8), HOT DOGMA (9), SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (4), ARES (3)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE SEVEN

COLADA RAINBOW (3) did some early work looking for position last start until finding the running line and the effort was there when not far from MACH SAM. 4 starts back he looked to go all the way from gate 1 at AP when run-down late. He can find the front here and sneak away with this.

SWAFFHAM WATER (7) will need a slice of luck to see space in time as she in danger of being buried in the run. Last start was a strong effort when working hard throughout and fighting on to be under 4m from MACH SAM. With a cosy trip she can fill the minors.

DAMINGO (1) has not seen a gate this close to the pegs in some time and can look to hold the early advantage. With the option for a cosy trip, look for a much improved effort here.

ANN MATTGREGOR (9) features in a stable change and will race for Dale Belford. 1st up since October without a trial, if she can bring the form from her last prep where she made 4 successive Gold Pot finals, she can give this a shake.

SELECTIONS: COLADA RAINBOW (3), SWAFFHAM WATER (7), DAMINGO (1), ANN MATTGREGOR (9
SUGGESTED BET: COLADA RAINBOW (3) to win