1. Home
  2. News & Guides
  3. February 2018
  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park 3 Feb

Form Analysis: Albion Park 3 Feb

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter. 

QUADDIE SELECTIONS:

1-6-8-12/ 2-8/ 1-8/ 1-3-8-10

 

Driver to Follow:

Pete McMullen- following on from his quartet of winners last Saturday night, Pete has a solid book of drives at this meeting. His main hopes appear to be Bettabe Perfect and Karloo Mac. While Glenferrie Hood, Releven Dream and Kotare York are all chances with McMullen's poise and guile.

RACE ONE

BETTABE PERFECT (12)
used the passing lane to get within a half-head of VILLAGE WITHC 4 starts back and then 2 starts back finished best over the 2138m trip to arrive for a neck victory. His run last week was solid from gate 7 when only 6m and predicting a slick tempo he can look to be finishing over the top.
BEAVER (4) will be further tightened following his 2nd run back from a spell. Taking on the FFA last week he went back from gate 5 and was a long way back in the pack and hit the line in good order through the centre of the pack.
COLD IDEAL (2) lands his best gate for some time and can look to take full advantage of his good early speed.
WRITTEN IN RED (1) not entirely suited from the inside gate but his form warrants inclusion in the exotics.

SELECTIONS: BETTABE PERFECT (12), BEAVER (4), COLD IDEAL (2), WRITTEN IN RED (1)
SUGGESTED BET: BETTABE PERFECT (12) each-way

RACE TWO

MOHEGAN SUN (8) has started from the 7-hole in 3 of his past 5 appearances where he has been forced to go back early and then come with the closing run. His heat run in this series had merit and from the gate should get the perfect trail into the race and be ready to make the closing sprint when the gap presents.
GOTTA GLOW (6) shoots for the hat-trick of claiming wins after a tough win when sent to the breeze was followed with the heat win. She will need to work in the run but she is in top touch and can go close.
HORACE FOXLEY (1) will have the early speed to hold them off and will be gripping to the lead in the stretch.
OUR MELS DREAM (12) arrived in time for a win in the heats and will be steaming home again.

SELECTIONS: MOHEGAN SUN (8), GOTTA GLOW (6), HORACE FOXLEY (1), OUR MELS DREAM (12)
SUGGESTED BET: MOHEGAN SUN (8) to win

RACE THREE

CASINO TOMMY (2) put in a huge effort last week when sitting 3-wide the trip and was still fighting to the line to get within 2.5m of the winner TOP TRIO and hold 3rd. He is racing in good touch but without the rub of the green. He can make his own luck here and be too good.
SPEEDIE MCARDLE (8) was aiming for a hat-trick last week when finding the pocket trail off gate 3 and finishing best of the chasing pack to be 4m from the leader and winner. He will get the right trip here.
RUATO BAY (1) was too far back last week and couldn’t make ground behind TOP TRIO and returned a fair effort on Wed at Redcliffe. The gate suits and he will be thereabouts.
TOP TRIO (4) might not be as suited at 2138m yet in this line-up from the gate he gets his chance.

SELECTIONS: CASINO TOMMY (2), SPEEDIE MCARDLE (8), RUATO BAY (1), TOP TRIO (4)
SUGGESTED BET: CASINO TOMMY (2) to win

RACE FOUR

OUTLAW FELLA (8)
has won 2 of his past 3 starts with both victories coming when leading throughout. His run last start when closing out a strong mile was good and 3 starts back he held on over the 2138m trip. He will be coiled and ready to strike behind the leader.
GANGSTER BOY (1) has found some nice form with a top 3 in 3 of his past 4 including a 2138m win. His good form has come from tough draws with his win from gate 11 a top effort. Landing his best gate for some time here he can take every advantage.
FEEL THE FAITH (9) hit the line nicely along the passing lane when 2nd to FIREBBY last start and can take an early option to drop to the markers and take the soft trip.
POMPIDOU (4) returned a solid effort 2 starts back when only beaten 2m. He can roll forward to again apply the acid and will fight all the way.

SELECTIONS: OUTLAW FELLA (8), GANGSTER BOY (1), FEEL THE FAITH (9), POMPIDOU (4)
SUGGESTED BET: OUTLAW FELLA (8) to win

RACE FIVE

VILLAGE WITCH (1) had enough speed to hold them wide before GLENFERRIE HOOD arrived and assumed control last week. Using the passing lane she was a 3m 2nd. 3 starts back she was beaten a half-neck behind AVONNOVA and in this open FFA gets her chance.
FEEL THE COURAGE (3) made the most of gate 2 last start when taking them all the way and from the gate can fire the 1st shot and will be trying to grip to the lead late.
JOYS A BABE (10) has 3 runs back from a spell and should be close to fully fit. Not suited when facing the breeze outside GLENFERRIE HOOD last week. Look for her swooping late.
GLENFERRIE HOOD (8) shoots for the hat-trick but lands a tricky. Starting from the 6 hole his past 2 starts he has been able to roll forward. He can’t be dismissed but will be relying on luck here .

SELECTIONS: VILLAGE WITCH (1), FEEL THE COURAGE (3), JOYS A BABE (10), GLENFERRIE HOOD (8)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-3-8-10

RACE SIX

FIREBBY (2)
 has wins in 4 of her past 7 and shoots for the hat-trick. Straight to the front from this gate over this trip last start, she slipped home in 55.8 and was never in danger. 1st to the pegs in this and will take some catching.
GUYS BETTOR BET (1) was closing out strongly last start and went within a head of the win. A winner in a mid-week conditioned event 3 starts back he will get the perfect trail here and be ready to strike.
CONSTANTLYSIDEWAYS (8) faces a tricky gate and looks resigned to being buried away. He is in great touch but is being deserted by the barrier draw angels having drawn closer than gate 5 once in 12 appearances. Look for him charging when he sees daylight.
GASMONKEY (10) was a qualifying winner 2 starts back when away from the inside draw early to work around them to the breeze and then prove too strong. He can repeat those sort of tactics here.

SELECTIONS: FIREBBY (2), GUYS BETTOR BET (1), CONSTANTLYSIDEWAYS (8), GASMONKEY (10)
SUGGESTED BET: FIREBBY (2) to win

RACE SEVEN

CHANTREY (2) pressed forward from gate 7 to face the breeze in claiming grade 3 starts back and was beaten a half-neck behind COMPLY OR DIE. His run from gate 5 last start was a strong effort when working outside the leader and fighting on late. He looks to get his chance.
KOTARE YORK (1) has been enigmatic in 5 starts this prep with a lone win surrounded by 4 duck eggs. The win came when leading all the way from gate 1 and running home a 27.5 closer. If that KOTARE YORK shows up, he will be hard to stop.
NUI TOC TIEN (3) returned from a freshen last start and from gate 6 went back to find position before finding the line in good order. He can settle handy here and be ready to sprint.
LEXUS ON THE BEACH (6) hit the line nicely to grab the silver 2 starts back and then last start was wide off the track when making ground. The wide draw hurts but he can still podium.

SELECTIONS: CHANTREY (2), KOTARE YORK (1), NUI TOC TIEN (3), LEXUS ON THE BEACH (6)
SUGGESTED BET: CHANTREY (2) to win

RACE EIGHT

KARLOO MAC (2)
looked to take them all the way over the 2138m trip 4 starts back and was grabbed late by CONSTANTLYSIDEWAYS. Since that run he has not drawn a marble yet his runs have had merit. Back to the tight gate he can take them all the way.
LORNE BEACH (1) will find these opponents more suitable than last start when the closing speed was too slick when 9m behind FIREBBY from the pocket trail. With the cosy trip he can podium.
LEVI JADE (8) was warmed up for this with a Redcliffe 3rd on Thursday. Prior to that he didn’t get the cleanest shot when beaten 7m the cosy run against the pegs suits
SWAROVSKI (9) resumes from a break and returns to Qld after campaigning in Syd. He returned a tidy trial effort to prepare for this and can challenge in the exotics.

SELECTIONS: KARLOO MAC (2), LORNE BEACH (1), LEVI JADE (8), SWAROVSKI (9)
SUGGESTED BET: KARLOO MAC (2) to win

RACE NINE

WYNBERG TERROR (1)
went straight to the front from the 3-hole last start over the 2138m and once in control held enough on the line to take a half-head victory. He drops back to the claiming ranks here and looks hard to stop.
BROADWAY PLAYBOY (8) wasn’t suited from gate 7 here 2 starts back yet was closing out in good style behind MONTANA FALCON. Last start his effort was sound and with a cosy ride here will get the last shot.
WAR DAN APOLLO (5) was unable to reel in WYNBERG TERROR last week from the 2nd line. 2 starts back he was beaten a half-head by MONTANA FALCON in this grade.
STORMFORTHEBOYS (6) has been freshened since his last appearance in a mid-week FFA when only 6m from the smart MAJOR CAM. He should relish taking on this class of horse.

SELECTIONS: WYNBERG TERROR (1), BROADWAY PLAYBOY (8), WAR DAN APOLLO (5), STORMFORTHEBOYS (6)
SUGGESTED BET: WYNBERG TERROR (1) to win

RACE TEN

OUR OVERANOVA (7)
resumes from a freshen after taking out the DJA Final. He gets back to mobile conditions where his record here is unbelievable with 11 wins from 12 starts and a narrow 2nd. He can press forward and add another victory.
OUR DAINTY LADY (6) worked home well in the DJA Final to finish 4th when beaten 4m. Since that she has landed a pair of wins and a half-head 2nd. She can look to make an early tactical play to get ahead from the gate and will give a good sight.
RELEVEN DREAM (9) found the 30m just a shade too far over the 2138m trip last week peaking on his run after looming strongly. Back to the mobile he can challenge.
SENITAS SUCCESS (8) stepped cleanly last week to settle in the trail and finished best along the passing lane to score. He has a 50% top-3 strike rate from the mobile and will get a soft trip.

SELECTIONS: OUR OVERANOVA (7), OUR DAINTY LADY (6), RELEVEN DREAM (9), SENITAS SUCCESS (8)
SUGGESTED BET: OUR OVERANOVA (7) to win