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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Feb 17

Form Analysis: Albion Park Feb 17

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter. 

Race 1 UBET $50,000 guaranteed Trifecta Pool

Box 1-2-5-9 & 9/F/1

QUADDIE

Leg 1           1-3-8
Leg 2          1-2-4-8
Leg 3           3-11
Leg 4           1-4-6

BEST BET

R10 N4 Covert Beauty

RACE ONE

KOTARE YORK (9)
took them all the way to win a qualifier 5 starts back and then out in 2 shockers before bouncing back with an all the way win from gate 1 last week and then a late charge from the 2nd line here on Tues. With frontline tempo he can swoop home again to land the three-peat.
ROYAL COUNSEL (1) will strip fitter for her latest outing when attacking the line strongly in the closing stages to get within a half-head of the winner IMA GRUMPY POSSUM. That was her return from a spell and with options she is right in this.
ARROKEEFE (5) has placed his past 3 and is knocking on the door for another win.. Early position is key to his chances and with the right run he features.
REDS JET STAR (2) was sent forward from the 2nd line last start to face the breeze and fought on well to hold the bronze. She can have a dip for the front and won’t be far away.

SELECTIONS: KOTARE YORK (9), ROYAL COUNSEL (1), ARROKEEFE (5), REDS JET STAR (2)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 1-2-5-9

RACE TWO

FEEL THE FAITH (5) started fav last time out and was cutting the breeze for most of the trip when fading late in a strong 2138m taken by BULL MARKET. Only 3m from MAJESTIC MAJOR at her 1st run back from a spell 4 starts back, she can roll forward early and looks ready to strike.
FIREBBY (3) looked to take them all the way last start when searching for a hat-trick and after burning through the 3rd panel couldn’t hold on. Quick out she can go straight to the pegs and if able to dictate will take some catching.
IMA GRUMPY POSSUM (1) settled well back in the pack from gate 4 last start and charged home strongly to score. She had been warming up to that with some tidy runs and can take the last shot.
MAGOOGAN (8) is likely to be buried in the run here, but if the tempo is controlled by FIREBBY, the pegs will be the perfect place to be.

SELECTIONS: FEEL THE FAITH (5), FIREBBY (3), IMA GRUMPY POSSUM (1), MAGOOGAN (8)
SUGGESTED BET: FEEL THE FAITH (5) to win

RACE THREE

OCEANS PREDATOR (2) finished a 3m 2nd to the flying MAKO BANNER when returning from a break 4 starts back. 2 starts back he met a much stronger line-up than he meets here when hitting the line in good order. He can fire the first shot here and from the front would take some catching.
HARD TO HEAR (8) took the pocket trail behind WEEDONS EXPRESS last week and couldn’t make much ground on him in the stretch. Likely to be 3 back along the pegs here, if he can see space in time look for him charging late.
BACK PAGE NEWS (1) was run down last week from in front, he can take cover here and look to run into the money.
LORNE BEACH (4) followed the leader here 3 starts back in a strongly run last 800m behind FIREBBY. He was attacking the line strongly last start  and settling handy he can be charging late.

SELECTIONS: OCEANS PREDATOR (2), HARD TO HEAR (8), BACK PAGE NEWS (1), LORNE BEACH (4)
SUGGESTED BET: OCEANS PREDATOR (2) to win

RACE FOUR

ELENIARK (11)
has been runner-up at each of her past 2 starts when starting from gate 6 on both occasions. Her closing sections were strong last start behind BUNDABURRA when chasing him into the race. There should be some mid-race temp here which will suit and she can finish over the top.
THREE OF THE BEST (3) handed up the front here 2 starts back in a strong C2-5 event when finishing 9m from ELENIARK. Freshened after that run he looked to take them all the way in the heat and controlled the speed to rip home in a pair of sub 28 sec panels. He will be gripping on in the stretch.
POMPIDOU (4) pressed forward from this same gate in the heats to sit outside THREE OF THE BEST. With similar tactics he can go to the breeze again to apply the acid and will dig in for the fight.
MACHIN OUT (12) held 3rd last week but was no match for the quinella pair that cleared out but with the right trail he can fill the exotics in this.

SELECTIONS: ELENIARK (11), THREE OF THE BEST (3), POMPIDOU (4), MACHIN OUT (12)
SUGGESTED BET: ELENIARK (11) to win

RACE FIVE

ONE WISE MAN (6) has landed 2 wins at AP since arriving in Qld with both of those wins coming via the passing lane. Last start he took the gap and arrived to defeat MASTER WIZARD in a stronger line-up than this. His 3rd to OUTLAW FELLA was solid and with early heat he can charge over the top.
WEEDONS EXPRESS (4) found his race last week in a 2nd division qualifier and was sent straight to the front from gate 5 over the mile and dictated for a nice win. This is tougher but with some confidence of that win he has some claims.
SURFACE TO AIR (3) was crossed in the early stages last week and then from the trail finished 1.5m from the winner. Settling just in behind them here and be trying to launch a closing raid.

CASINO TOMMY (1) was buried on the pegs last start from inside the 2nd line and hit the line strongly once seeing space to finish under 2m from the winner. He is knocking on the door.

SELECTIONS: ONE WISE MAN (6), WEEDONS EXPRESS (4), SURFACE TO AIR (3), CASINO TOMMY (1)
SUGGESTED BET: ONE WISE MAN (6) to win

RACE SIX

GLENFERRIE HOOD (7)
completed a hat-trick of victories last start when sticking to the inside and then taking the passing lane to score. 3 starts back he was strong from the breeze after starting from the 6-hole and cutting the breeze. He is the form FFA’ller in Qld and looks hard to stop again here.
MAJESTIC MAJOR (6) has won 2 of his past 3 starts and last week dictated terms from the front to score a strong win over the 2138m trip. 2 starts back he was 4m from GLENFERRIE HOOD when making good late ground. Despite a tricky gate he is right in the mix.
JACKAROO BROMAC (1) found himself a long way back in the pack last week and was hitting the line strongly in the closing stages. From this gate he can settle handy and be ready to strike.
ALLELUIA (8) turned things around last week to end the longest winless streak in his career. With early options as the lone 2nd line runner he can podium.

SELECTIONS: GLENFERRIE HOOD (7), MAJESTIC MAJOR (6), JACKAROO BROMAC (1), ALLELUIA (8)
SUGGESTED BET: GLENFERRIE HOOD (7) to win

RACE SEVEN

REMEMBER THEM (3) returns from a Sydney campaign that a 2nd from 3 starts. Leading them up over the mile from gate 6 he finished 4m from the winner MURANO who got past him. Last start he was only 5m from the winner and with the speed to find the pegs 1st he has the options and looks the one to beat.
THE SHADY ONE (5) went back from gate 6 here on Tues and then was closing hard down the centre of the track to finish 1m from the winner KOTARE YORK. There should be plenty of tempo in the middle stages allowing him to wait for his chance to launch the closing raid.
GANGSTER BOY (6) is racing in close to career best form with a top-3 finish in 6 of his past 8 starts including 2 wins, the latest here last week. He is right in the fight again.
MAKO BANNER (7) was grabbed right on the line last week to go under by a neck. Spearing out from gate 6 to lead and take them all the way 2 starts back, he can go forward and throw down a challenge.

SELECTIONS: REMEMBER THEM (3), THE SHADY ONE (5), GANGSTER BOY (6), MAKO BANNER (7)
SUGGESTED BET: REMEMBER THEM (3) to win

RACE EIGHT

LUCKY UNLUCKY (1)
will strip fitter for his return to attack his 3YO term after a solid 1st up effort. Settling with cover from gate 2 he held 3rd behind the NSW Oaks aspirant LISA LINCOLN. A G2 winner at Menangle 2 starts back he lands the perfect gate and can look to dictate.
RED CHARMER (9) would not have been out of place in the NSW Oaks heats alongside her stable-mates, yet she lines up here where she will be a huge threat. Winning her 1st 2 runs back from a spell, the early speed of OUR MAJOR DAY was the difference in her last start when beaten 3.5m.
DAPPER BESSIE (6) went straight to the front last start and once in control and able to pinch a 2nd stanza breather had them all chasing. The gate hurts but she won’t be far away.
COREY WILLIAM (7) settled with running line cover in a Gold Pot final last start and found the line in good style. His run 2 starts back when 6m from RED CHARMER had merit and he has podium claims.

SELECTIONS: LUCKY UNLUCKY (1), RED CHARMER (9), DAPPER BESSIE (6), COREY WILLIAM (7)
SUGGESTED BET: LUCKY UNLUCKY / RED CHARMER (1/9) Quinella

RACE NINE

NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (11)
will strip fitter following his 1st up run when taking out a heat of this series at Marburg. Put away after a late closing finish to score from gate 7, his heat run was a great effort with the closing 27.8 panel possibly the fastest ever seen at Marburg. He looks tough to beat.
NEVAEH (3) started fav here 4 starts back and had to settle for the silver behind the in-form SPEEDIE MCARDLE who franked that with a qualifying win last week. Beaten 1m in the heat, she can be 1st to the pegs here and can go close.
ITS ALL GO (5) has been in the top 3 at 8 of his past 10 with 1 of those misses coming when striking trouble and being retired from the race. 7m from NEWMEREALLA SHARKIE in the heat he can be thereabouts again here.
 IM ROLLING STONED (1) was forced to work in the run when beaten a head behind NEWMERELLA SHARKIE with that heat looking the best guide at the chances here in the final.

SELECTIONS: NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (11), NEVAEH (3), ITS ALL GO (5), IM ROLLING STONED (1)
SUGGESTED BET: NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (11) to win

RACE TEN

COVERT BEAUTY (4)
started fav for the mares qualifier last week over the 2138m. Starting off the 2nd line she settled in the running line but never really looked a threat in finishing 3rd. Her run 2 starts back was a strong effort in the breeze and a repeat of that run back to the mile in this will see her salute.
ROCKNROLL AMBER (2) was taken back early from gate 5 last week and was fair in the run to the line to be 11m from the winner THE MUSE. Better suited at the mile she can look to fire the 1st shot and if able to pinch a panel will be hard to run down.
ROCKONBYE (1) settled in the pocket trail last start from gate 1 and in a bunched finish was a 1m 4th to IMA TOP TYCOON. From the gate will be in position to take the closing shot.
RECIPROCITY (5) travels north for visiting NSW trainer Mitch Faulkner and arrives with wins at 3 of her past 4 starts. She set a strong tempo at Menangle in a country final 2 starts back and has some claims in this.

SELECTIONS: COVERT BEAUTY (4), ROCKNROLL AMBER (2), ROCKONBYE (1), RECIPROCITY (5)
SUGGESTED BET: COVERT BEAUTY (4) to win