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Form Analysis: Redcliffe Feb 21

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON- @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter. 

RACE ONE

PALE BEAR BOO (4)
has been brutal at his past 3 with an average winning margin of 27.4m in the 3 victories. Last start he went straight to the front and once in control ripped home in a sub 57 last 800m. This will be his biggest test since going on the streak, but the dominance of his wins makes it hard to go past him.

MUCHO MACHO MAN (1) shoots for a hat-trick after successive wins here over the 2040m trip. Last start he took them all the way and did it easy with 10m to spare on the line. He lands the options here and with there looking to be some pressure can release. He looks a danger.

SELECTIONS: PALE BEAR BOO (4), MUCHO MACHO MAN (1), MISTER HART (9), HERITAGE BEACH (3)
SUGGESTED BET: PALE BEAR BOO (4) to win

RACE TWO

COULDNTBETOLD (3) started fav from the 2nd line here last week over the 1780m and worked home strongly to arrive in time for victory. That followed a tidy effort when too far back in a Gold Pot final behind OUR MAJOR DAY. With a solid Redcliffe record he can go back-to-back.

XTRAORDINARY LOMBO (5) took the bronze last start after a luckless effort when buried away in the run and the leader MUCHO MACHO MAN was able to dictate the tempo. That followed successive wins from gate 10 and with even luck he can lay down the challenge.

SELECTIONS: COULDNTBETOLD (3), XTRAORDINARY LOMBO (5), HANDSOME MAJOR (2), MISS POSITIVITY (7)
SUGGESTED BET: COULDNTBETOLD (3) to win

RACE THREE


LUCKY NED PEPPER (7) will be fitter for 3 runs back from a break with the latest effort strong when looking to take them all the way from gate 5. Sent forward to find the front he was grabbed late by ROCKNROLL AMBER. He will need a slice of luck but following a good beginner can be coiled and ready to strike.

SUMMER MONEY (1) was buried away from inside the 2nd line last start and was never a factor and that followed a tough run where he faded off after working hard. With the improved gate he gets the chance to try for an all the way win and will be gripping on in the stretch.

SELECTIONS: LUCKY NED PEPPER (7), SUMMER MONEY (1), WHAT A FLIGHT (2), ILLAWONG LIVELY (8)
SUGGESTED BET: LUCKY NED PEPPER/SUMMER MONEY (1/7) quinella

RACE FOUR

SONNY ORLANDO (5)
has placed in his past 3 starts and strikes a winnable contest here. From the pocket trail last start he chased home the handy HERES MY NUMBER who took them all the way and was a comfortable 3rd. He can find early position and look to break his Qld maiden.

NOTTELLINYA (7) gets the gate to be effective to his preferred pattern and despite likely of being buried away can charge when the gaps open. Last week he dropped to the pegs and worked home well for the bronze and can look to repeat the result.

SELECTIONS: SONNY ORLANDO (5), NOTTELLINYA (7), PURE MADNESS (9), LOCKTON ART (8)
SUGGESTED BET: NOTTELLINYA (7) to place

LYNCHMAN (5) was in the pocket trail from inside the 2nd line last start and chased the leader and winner MISS POSITIVITY all the way to hold the silver. He has struggle to land a suitable gate in 3 starts prior to that run and from this gate can go forward and strikes a winnable race here if he can take control.

SHERKHAN (1) has not produced much in 3 runs back from a break, but there can be an excuse given for each run, the latest when he lost his chance by going off stride.  With an improved gate here he can hold the front and release the right runner and with the cosy trip can be an improver.

SELECTIONS: LYNCHMAN (5), SHERKHAN (1), MISTER CHOMP (6), ANY WONDER (7)
SUGGESTED BET: LYNCHMAN (5) to win

RACE SIX

LONGSHANKS (1)
looked to have found his race on Sunday here over this trip and was sent to the post a red figure fav. Striking trouble when launching his raid at the 400m he lost his chance and then flashed late for 2nd. From the gate he can dictate here and atone.

SPLASH OF GOLD (7) finished in the money again last start to make it 9 in a row that she has been top 3. Settling in the pocket trail she was getting to them with every stride and ended a head from the winner COULDNTBETOLD. From the gate she will be right there once again.

SELECTIONS: LONGSHANKS (1), SPLASH OF GOLD (7), NICKY MATTGREGOR (8), HERES MY NUMBER (9)
SUGGESTED BET: LONGSHANKS (1) to win – peg-line trifecta

RACE SEVEN

FEEL THE REIGN (2) lands his best gate for some time and in this line-up can look to take full advantage. 5 starts back he looked to take them all the way over the 1660m at AP and led everywhere bar where it counted. His runs have been good from bad gates and he gets every chance here.

GETINANHANGON (1) was working wide off the track here 2 starts back when finishing down the line behind SPIRITO NERO and followed that with a 4th in a tidy effort with the closing 400m making it impossible for anything chasing behind JUSTALITTLE TORQUE. He will have the closing shot.

SELECTIONS: FEEL THE REIGN (2), GETINANHANGON (1), SPIRITO NERO (7), MAJORDOIT (4)
SUGGESTED BET: FEEL THE REIGN (2) to win