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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park 7 July

Form Analysis: Albion Park 7 July

RACE ONE

UNTITLED (4)
started from gate 7 on a strong M0 at Menangle last start when looking to track into the race wide out. His run 3 back behind CONVICTION was a solid effort from back in the pack and was franked here last week when EFFRONTE scored. With running line position he can arrive in time.

LOCKTON LUCK (1) was 2nd up in Qld last week when going straight to the front over the mile and after getting a big gasp of air through the middle stages was able to rip home in 27.7 for a comfortable win. He steps up to the 2138m but will be in front for a long way.

ROCK WITH SAM (11) is in great touch but has just struggled to land the knockout blow. Looking to take them all the way last start he was grabbed in the last stride by EFFRONTE. He will be in the fight again.

I AM SERENGETI (10) was a slick all the way winner at Newcastle 2 starts back and then from gate 9 last start was strong to the line behind THE BATCHELOR. With the right cart into the contest he can feature.

SELECTIONS: UNTITLED (4), LOCKTON LUCK (1), ROCK WITH SAM (11), I AM SERENGETI (10)
SUGGESTED BET:  Flexi F4 UBET Jackpot 1-4-10-11

RACE TWO

HASHTAG (1) tracked into the race strongly last week over the mile and packed too many guns to the line to score stylishly. This is his best gate since arriving in Qld with his past 3 off the 2nd line and each run has been good. From the gun draw he holds all the aces.

CONSTANTLYSIDEWAYS (5) has taken on open company at his past 2 starts since taking out the Redcliffe Cup in a strong front-running display. He found the line strongly behind ALLELUIA 2 starts back and with a solid tempo can throw down a challenge in this line-up.

CELESTIAL ARDEN (2) followed inside runs last start when mid-field in the Len Smith Mile behind CRUZ BROMAC. If he can find position and be close enough, he will be a huge threat.

OUR WALL STREET WOLF (10) has been in super touch and won his past 3 in succession but faces his toughest test here. Strong when working 3-wide last week he has been strong and warrants consideration.

SELECTIONS: HASHTAG (1), CONSTANTLYSIDEWAYS (5), CELESTIAL ARDEN (2), OUR WALL STREET WOLF (10)
SUGGESTED BET: HASHTAG (1) to win

RACE THREE

COMPLY OR DIE (1) pressed ahead from gate 5 and after a 275 stinger to open was able to see it out from the front. Within 3m of the in-form MAJOR KIWI 3 starts back from the trail, he has the speed to light the lamps and just needs to pinch a panel to take them all the way.

OUR MELS DREAM (8) returned a much improved effort last start from the pocket trail to get win 3m of COMPLY OR DIE. Taking further benefit from that run which was his 1st for the Jack Butler barn, he will get the perfect trip here and will be coiled and ready to take the snipers shot.

CHANTREY (3) was the other heat winner of this series and finished with too much power to cruise home to a 5m victory. That followed a solid run in band grade and settling close to the action can challenge.

MAX RICHTER (12) pressed on from gate 6 in the heat to do the hard yards when fighting to the line to claim the silver. With some up front tempo and a cart into the contest he will be closing hard.

SELECTIONS: COMPLY OR DIE (1), OUR MELS DREAM (8), CHANTREY (3), MAX RICHTER (12)
SUGGESTED BET: OUR MELS DREAM (8) to place

RACE FOUR

BULL MARKET (2)
secured the nice trip from inside the 2nd line last start and once angled into open air was able to power clear and hold on for a head margin. That followed a solid run when trying to go all the way. With the power to get to the front, if able to relax in front he will be hard to stop.

COLD IDEAL (1) has been in nice touch since returning from a break with a win and placing from 2 starts. Last start in a mid-week conditioned event he packed too ma guns in finishing off wide out in nice style to score. With a cosy trip he can be ready to issue the closing challenge.

IMA GRUMPY POSSUM (8) couldn’t finish it off last week and faded out behind OUR WALL STREET WOLF. With the cosy run throughout she can follow the inside line to land in the money.

LEXUS ON THE BEACH (3) can work in his races and from this gate can slide across to ask the questions. Pressing on to find the front from the 2nd line last start, he won’t shirk the task.

SELECTIONS: BULL MARKET (2), COLD IDEAL (1), IMA GRUMPY POSSUM (8), LEXUS ON THE BEACH (3)
SUGGESTED BET: BULL MARKET (2) to win

RACE FIVE

COLT THIRTY ONE (11) is arguably in the top-3 3YO’s in the country and despite coming up with the 2nd line here that might just add some extra value to his odds. Clinical in the Redcliffe Derby when given plenty of time to balance up he put them away. His Triad win was class and he can go 14 from 14 here at Albion Park.

THATSWHATISAID (4) is undefeated since arriving in Aust and has the speed off the arm to take control of this. His closing panel at Canberra at his 1st Aust run was blistering and 2 starts back over the Menangle mile found the front from gate 7 and after a 27.5 opener closed it off in 25.8! We will get to see how good he is here.

DUPLICATED (8) is another undefeated since arriving in Aust with his 4 wins across 4 different Vic tracks and all when pressing on to the front. He won’t get that luxury here and will need some luck, but he looks to have some serious speed.
 
ARGYLE BEACH (9) has put together a hat-trick of wins with the most recent when closing out strongly from the 2nd line. She can secure a nice run in transit from the gate and will be looking to swoop home.

SELECTIONS: COLT THIRTY ONE (11), THATSWHATISAID (4), DUPLICATED (8), ARGYLE BEACH (9)
SUGGESTED BET: COLT THIRTY ONE (11) to win

RACE SIX

MATTGREGOR (9)
will take great benefit from his run in the Wondai’s Mate when having his 1st race start in 8 weeks. Starting from this same gate he settled in the running line and was strong to the line in nice panels. Absolutely luckless 2 starts back he never saw space, he can look to catch a ride home here and arrive for the win.

HUGHIE GREEN (11) returned from a long-layoff when cruising home to a stylish win and posting a healthy margin in the process. Not best suited at the mile his run last week was a head-scratcher but a lot of times the 2nd up run can produce that. Prepared to forgive the run and back to the middle distance he can bounce back.

FRANKIE ROCKS (2) pressed on for the front from gate 6 last week and taking control set a strong tempo but couldn’t withstand GLENFERRIE HOOD taking the closing shot. The 2138m has always been a query with him and while he should be leading them up, can he see it out?

OHOKA PUNTER (10) faces a big ask to return at this level first-up added to the fact he was a scratching when slated for his return last week. He has trialled well and his class cannot be denied, it will take a special effort to knock them off first-up.

SELECTIONS: MATTGREGOR (9), HUGHIE GREEN (11), FRANKIE ROCKS (2), OHOKA PUNTER (10)
SUGGESTED BET: MATTGREGOR (9) each-way

RACE SEVEN

SOCIABLE (2) rolled to the front last start I the Redcliffe Oaks and once in control was never in danger to score a 5m victory. Only lightly raced and kept fresh since that Redcliffe win, she should have the speed to get to the pegs which will open the options which might just be the right way to attack this race.
 
MY HARMONY BLUE (3) has good early speed and will be taking a solid shot for the front here and might even be allowed to roll on to light the lamps. Her win 2 back from gate 7 at Maryborough was a strong effort and she closed out nicely. Her closing panel at Stawell 2 starts back was class and while this is a step up, she looks ready to progress.

TRES VITE (9) has only had the 2 starts in Aust but each of those have been stylish wins from 2nd line gates. A passing lane winner last start at Bathurst where few can get the job done, she will get a nice trail through to settle close.

AQUA MISS (5) was solid in the Redcliffe Oaks after doing all the work to get to the breeze and then boxing on well to hold the bronze. That followed a good 2nd in the Redcliffe derby behind the gun COLT THIRTY ONE. She looks the pick of the locals.

SELECTIONS: SOCIABLE (2), MY HARMONY BLUE (3), TRES VITE (9), AQUA MISS (5)
SUGGESTED BET: SOCIABLE (2) to win

RACE EIGHT

OUR OVERANOVA (9)
has the superb record from the mobile here at Albion Park and while he has some inter-state visitors to take on this time around, he has then benefit of meeting them on his patch. A winner off 50m last start he can get the right trail through in the early stages here to score.

TOUGH MONARCH (6) was buried in the run at Melton last start and just kept coming to arrive for a strong win and running some classy panels in the process. His run behind the smart TORNADO VALLEY 4 starts back under mobile conditions was a tidy effort and he can lay down the challenge.

NEEDLE (2) missed a top-2 for the 1st time in Qld last week when working in the run from the 20m tape. Coming through her biggest test to date in good style, the run was full of merit to be within 6m of the winner. With the good alley can look to be 1st to the pegs which opens the options.

JUSTABITNOISY (1) will enjoy the perfect trip from this gate and be probing for gaps to work into the contest in the closing stages. Only 3m away here 2 starts back, forget his latest run when making an error.

SELECTIONS: OUR OVERANOVA (9), TOUGH MONARCH (6), NEEDLE (2), JUSTABITNOISY (1)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 1-2-6-9

RACE NINE

EFFRONTE (2)
will be improved from his run last week at his Qld debut when packing too many guns in the run to the line. He moves into his best gate in his past 4 starts and with good speed off the arm he can get to the pegs here and dictate terms.

OUTLAW FELLA (6) rarely runs a bad race and last week was a victim when unable to find position and taken back. 2 starts back he went within 2m of OUR WALL STREET WOLF in a strong run and he will be right in the fight here.

JESTER OH JESTER (9) used the passing lane to get within 2m of SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE 3 starts back then last start wasn’t suited off gate 6. He can gain a nice early trail here to settle handy and has place claims.

IAMBOOGIE (8) will need a slice of luck from this alley but if able to spot an opening with track to play with can be storming home. 2nd to the big winner HOLY CAMP CLIVE last start, the cosy run suits.

SELECTIONS: EFFRONTE (2), OUTLAW FELLA (6), JESTER OH JESTER (9), IAMBOOGIE (8)
SUGGESTED BET: EFFRONTE (2) to win

RACE TEN

MISS GRACELAND (8)
gets no favours with the inside 2nd line here but some McCarthy magic can see her away from the pegs and ready to issue a challenge. 1st up for the Craig Cross barn last week in a mares qualifier, she was sent forward from gate 7 to take control and was brutal in a sub 27 closing split. Fitter from that she just needs the luck.

JOYS A BABE (10) is the best credentialed mare in the race but hard to gauge exactly where she is at. A last start winner, it was her race to lose against only 2 opponents and she held on in a 27.6 closing split over the 2138m. At her best she is right in this and with some confidence of her last start can feature.

IMA MYSTERY GIRL (4) followed inside runs at Menangle 2 starts back and was strong to the line when only 8m from MY FIELD MARSHAL. She closed nicely last start from gate 6 and with good early speed can take a shot and give this a shake.

ANNIKA MAGIC (7) will appreciate the mares only company and can look to work home in the closing stages. Finding the line strongly behind HOLY CAMP CLIVE look she always puts in a top effort and she can chime into the exotics.

SELECTIONS: MISS GRACELAND (8), JOYS A BABE (10), IMA MYSTERY GIRL (4), ANNIKA MAGIC (7)
SUGGESTED BET: