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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 14

Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 14

RACE ONE

LET IT RIDE (9)
has been brilliant since returning from the Jewels and capped his impressive form with a powerful G1 victory in the 4YO Breeders Challenge last start. Taken back from the outside gate he sizzled down the stretch to clear out to a 7m victory. With even luck he looks to have this at his mercy.

SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (3) just missed a start in the Sunshine Sprint off the back of some strong form that included a close 3rd last start after setting the tempo over the 2138m. A great beginner he can fire out here and setting a tempo will give them plenty to chase.

COLD IDEAL (6) has returned from a spell in top order and goes in search of a hat-trick. He had conditions to suit last week but still sprinted nicely when put in open space. This is tougher but he can be thereabouts.

HOLY CAMP CLIVE (10) will appreciate getting back to this company after taking a shot in open class last week. Striking trouble in the run his hopes were dashed. A winner of his previous 2 he can bounce-back.

SELECTIONS: LET IT RIDE (9), SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (3), COLD IDEAL (6), HOLY CAMP CLIVE (10)
SUGGESTED BET: Chase the UBET F4 Jackpot 9 / 3-10 / 3-6-10 / 1-2-4-6-10

RACE TWO

CLINTAL DO (7) would have scored big if in Vegas, landing his 3rd 7 in a row. Alas he lines up here and despite the tough alley he can look to show his class. Taken back and charging late to be 9m from COLD IDEAL he will be further tightened and just needs even luck to cash-in.

LIKEALLOFUS (1) charged home along the inside to score here 3 starts back over this trip. Looking to come wide on the track his past 2 he has not been as effective and with the benefit of the peg-line look for him probing for the run.

TYGAR (2) wasn’t disgraced in the Triad final and then returned from a freshen with a late closing win over this trip after taking cover from gate 1, His run in the Premiers Cup was sound and he is right in this.

LOCKTON LUCK (11) shoots for the hat-trick after a pair of win a the mile and then middle distance. Protecting the inside and then releasing the speed at the right moment last start he was able to finish over the top.

SELECTIONS: CLINTAL DO (7), LIKEALLOFUS (1), TYGAR (2), LOCKTON LUCK (11)
SUGGESTED BET: LIKEALLOFUS (1) each-way

RACE THREE

CONVICTION (11) gets into this race nicely and despite a tough gate his class can see him through. His win 3 starts back was classy with EFFRONTE franking that here at AP with a pair of wins after finishing 2nd in that race. He worked home well behind LET IT RIDE last start and looks to have this.

MARETTI (9) will take good benefit from his run in the Premiers Cup last start when resuming from a freshen after the Triad Final. His run was strong in that Triad doing all the work off the 2nd line when circling early. He worked hard last week from gate 7 and with the added fitness is right in this.


IDEAL WORLD (8) skips the Derby to take on the older horses here despite running a nice 2nd to COLT THIRTY ONE last week. He will need a slice of luck here off the inside but if seeing a gap can feature.

THE BACHELOR (10) finished best to score a nice win over DOUBLE ENCOUNTER 4 starts back and will shoot for a hat-trick after a pair of strong wins in front. With the right cart into this he can challenge.

SELECTIONS: CONVICTION (11), MARETTI (9), IDEAL WORLD (8), THE BACHELOR (10)
SUGGESTED BET: CONVICTION (11) to win

RACE FOUR

CARLAS PIXEL (11)
is one of the top mares in the country and despite the tough gate the cream should rise to the top here. Powering home to victory in the heat of the 4YO Vicbred, she was sent forward in the final and worked hard when 3rd. She will be short and her ability justifies the quote,

ELENIARK (8) returns from a Vicbred campaign where luck deserted her. The trip wasn’t a complete washout, with the talented mare scoring an M0 victory when leading throughout over the Melton 1720m. She will need some luck from this gate but sighting an opening look for her sprinting hard.

BETTORTHANSPECIAL (7) was sent for a freshen following a sub-par run when a beaten fav last time out. Trialling in good style she returns and despite receiving no favours from the car-park, she is a classy mare with 24 wins here at AP.

ELLE YEAH (3) is a last start G1 winner after taking out the NSW Breeders Challenge mares title. After securing the perfect trip in that, she might find this a step up but must still be respected.

SELECTIONS: CARLAS PIXEL (11), ELENIARK (8), BETTORTHANSPECIAL (7), ELLE YEAH (3)
SUGGESTED BET: CARLAS PIXEL (11) to win

RACE FIVE

MY HARMONY BLUE (1) was 1st-up in Qld in the South East Oaks and after sliding across early ended up 1x2 in the run. The last 100m when she knuckled down after taking some time to wind up. This is by far her biggest test but happy to take what looks value and put her on top from the gate where she has the early speed to dictate who she releases.

GOODTIME HEAVEN (13) lands another horror gate but she keeps taking every challenge in her stride. Pressing on to the breeze last start in the NSW Breeders 3YO Fillies final she was too strong to the line in landing a tough win. She will be wide at some point but she will be right in the fight.

CALLMEQUEENBEE (2) worked home in the semi  and final of the NSW Breeders from well back in the field and had the best closing sectionals in each. With the improved gate she will get the chance to use her early speed to get forward and she can throw down the challenge.

SOCIABLE (8) was too good in the Redcliffe Oaks when taking them all the way and closing out a strong last 800m. Going into the South East Oaks without a trial, she may have been underdone when a fighting 3rd. Fitter she will be probing for the openings.

SELECTIONS: MY HARMONY BLUE (1), GOODTIME HEAVEN (13), CALLMEQUEENBEE (2), SOCIABLE (8)
SUGGESTED BET: MY HARMONY BLUE (1) value of the night.

RACE SIX

SOHO TRIBECA (9)
was impressive in the Italian Cup over the 2240m Melton trip 2 starts back when returning from a break. Rolling forward to take control after starting on the 2nd line it was a great return. Forget his Len Smith run when striking trouble at the start, he can get a nice trail through early to find position and can take the loot.

MY FIELD MARSHAL (10) opted for a trail in the Len Smith and couldn’t do any better than a 4.5m 2nd to CRUZ BROMAC with the 26.5 closing panel telling the story for those chasing. Grabbed in the closing stages 2 starts back in the Golden Mile he will be looking for a ride home to issue a challenge.

BODHI TREE (5) continues to impress in open company and last start was charging home to grab the silver behind ALLELUIA. He may not be able to cause an upset here but in a race where the tempo will be electric he can look for the cosy run and can sneak into the money with his closing sizzle.

TACT TATE (7) has the tricky gate but does have some slick moves off the arm if set alight. Fitter from his latest run now that he has started twice off a long break, his Len Smith run was full of merit and he can bob up in the exotics.

SELECTIONS: SOHO TRIBECA (9), MY FIELD MARSHAL (10), BODHI TREE (5), TACT TATE (7)
SUGGESTED BET: SOHO TRIBECA (9) to win

RACE SEVEN

TOUGH MONARCH (12) made an early error from the mobile start last week but was quickly back into gait to find running line position. Tracking into the race on the back of OUR OVERANOVA, he put him away in the stretch and established a margin in an impressive display. Back to the stand should not be an issue and he looks to have the class.

OUR OVERANOVA (13) made his move at the 600m and moving into the stretch hit the front but had no answer for TOUGH MONARCH. That followed a strong win from this same impost when scoring his 39th AP victory. Bombproof from the tapes he should be quickly into a position but giving his main danger a start might just prove out of reach.

JUSTABITNOISY (2) was buried in the run last week and when he saw space was far from disgraced in holding down 4th. Only 3m from OUR OVERANOVA 3 starts back, he gets in on the front line here which looks ideal and he can give plenty of cheek.

NEEDLE (6) found the pocket trail last week and when the moved into the stretch she was momentarily held-up. It was not enough to suggest she was unlucky but she definitely could have been closer. She is yet to shirk the task.

SELECTIONS: TOUGH MONARCH (12), OUR OVERANOVA (13), JUSTABITNOISY (2), NEEDLE (6)
SUGGESTED BET: TOUGH MONARCH (12) to win

RACE EIGHT

COLT THIRTY ONE (4)
was breathtaking last week when saved for his run and once Dixon pulled the trigger he exploded away. You don’t often see a horse run 1.2 seconds quicker than any opponents for an 800m sectional, but he did that last week. With versatility to call on it is going to take something special for him to go under.

THATSWHATISAID (1) will take some benefit from his run last week when taking his 1st shot in tougher company. Spearing out to take up the lamp lighting duties he kept the tempo strong over the 2138m but couldn’t see it out. With the inside line he can improve off last week’s run.

DUPLICATED (3) missed last week’s Premiers Cup through transportation issues but will be here looking to make up for his lost opportunities. Undefeated since arriving in Aust he ripped home in a sizzling closing panel last start at Melton. This is his biggest test since arriving.

THE BUS (8) started wide off the track last start in the NSW Breeders Challenge and was far from disgraced behind the superstar IGNATIUS. Running that same 3YO to 6m in a semi of the Breeders 2 starts back, he can get the perfect trip and with the cheap run can chime into the exotics.

SELECTIONS: COLT THIRTY ONE (4), THATSWHATISAID (1), DUPLICATED (3), THE BUS (8)
SUGGESTED BET: COLT THIRTY ONE (4) to win

RACE NINE

FIRST STRING (9)
made his Qld debut with a dominant Redcliffe when sent forward from gate 4 and taking control was never in danger in scoring a 13m victory. His NSW form leading into that had been against some classy 2YO’s and he can look to cement his Triad credentials with another strong win.

SMART AS CAMM BE (10) completed a hat-trick of victories last start when proving too strong in the Breeders Classic after cutting the breeze and scoring a 3m victory. Coming into this 1st-up she was good in a recent trial to prepare as she heads to the fillies Triad next week.

A MILLION PROMISES (2) is another on what seems the common path of a freshen after the Breeders. He too was tidy in a trial to blow out the cobwebs and with good early speed can look to fire the 1st shot.

LEFT A TERROR (3) had a match-race against REGULUS in a Breeders Crown heat over the 2138m last time out and after taking the trail held his position to the line, running his own closing 400m in sub 27. He won’t be far away here.

SELECTIONS: FIRST STRING (9), SMART AS CAMM BE (10), A MILLION PROMISES (2), LEFT A TERROR (3)
SUGGESTED BET: FIRST STRING (9) to win

RACE TEN

REPLACED EYE (7)
didn’t have the best of luck last week in the Premiers Cup at his Qld debut and was well held behind the gun COLT THIRTY ONE. 5 starts back he ran the superstar 3YO IGNATIUS to 8.5m from gate 9 and was only gunned down in the closing stages at his next start by THE BACHELOR. He can cap what could be a field day for Luke McCarthy.

I AM SERENGETI (2) started off the 2nd line last start and struggled to work into the contest behind LOCKTON LUCK. Only 3m from THE BACHELOR 2 starts back, he gets the chance to fire off the arm to the pegs and dictate to the small field. He will be gripping on.

GRINVIL (1) was buried away on the pegs here on Tues and may have finished closer than the 4m margin if seeing the space when needed. Doing her best when saved for a closing sprint she will be coiled and ready to strike at her 100th start.

SELECTIONS: REPLACED EYE (7), I AM SERENGETI (2), GRINVIL (1)
SUGGESTED BET: REPLACED EYE (7) to win