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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 28

Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 28

RACE ONE

CODE BAILEY (2)
had a torrid run in the Derby when 3-wide from the mile looking for the breeze that wasn’t available. Working overtime in the run he stuck on strongly to finish in a run that was full of merit. His form prior was strong and he gets his chance to bounce back.

UNTITLED (6) has been left in the care of Wayne Graham after 3 starts in Qld for original trainer Brad Hewitt. He did a stack of work when gunned down late by LOCKTON LUCK and followed that with a luckless run when never seeing space. Too strong over this trip last week, he can issue a challenge.

ROCK WITH SAM (12) has no favours from the gate but is absolutely knocking on the door. Probing for a run 2 starts back, he went within 1.5m of the winner UNCLE PETER last start.

SMOOTH SAILOR (1) rises in class, but from the gate will get the perfect trip to utilise his closing speed. He charged home from a long way back on Tues to score and will have the spinnaker up in the stretch.

SELECTIONS: CODE BAILEY (2), UNTITLED (6), ROCK WITH SAM (12), SMOOTH SAILOR (1)
SUGGESTED BET: CODE BAILEY (2)- UBET F4 Jackpot 2 / 1-6-12 /1-6-8-12 / 1-6-8-9-12

RACE TWO

HEZ RAZOR SHARP (1) had been searching for a good alley and achieved that last start over the mile and he looked to take them all the way. A 2nd panel breather wasn’t enough and he faded late to be mid-field behind NONE BETTOR. His form prior was against handy types and he can look to dictate.

NONE BETTOR (10) has the tough gate to overcome here but is still right in the fight. Forced to do a tonne of work last time from gate 6 his run was strong behind OUR CHITTYBANGBANG which followed a run at the 2138m which is not his preferred trip. He will be in the race at some stage.

RIVERLEIGH ROCKET (9) will take further benefit from his latest start when 2nd up from a break. Finding himself too far back he couldn’t get into it. Despite the gate against his pattern, he has claims.

FRANCO TARIQ (6) wasn’t too far behind PSYCHEDELIC last start after settling in the pocket trail which followed a tough run behind EFFROTNE. He looks better suited in this despite the gate.

SELECTIONS: HEZ RAZOR SHARP (1), NONE BETTOR (10), RIVERLEIGH ROCKET (9), FRANCO TARIQ (6)
SUGGESTED BET: HEZ RAZOR SHARP (1) to win

RACE THREE

MISS GRACELAND (5) probably had bigger targets in Qld but after a health issue was sent back to the trials and her prep has altered. A dominant winner in a mares qualifier 2 starts back when resuming from a spell and a change of stable saw her rip home in a  26.9 closing panel. Looks hard to stop.

EL MAJOR (1) chased home gamely at his Qld debut 2 starts back when resuming from 14 months on the sideline and arrived in time to score a nice win. He did his share of work in the run last start over the 2138m before fading out. Back to the mile and with options, he can be sharper.

CHAPTER ONE (3) was angled to the fence last start and then shuffled back was just too far back. His closing sprint was strong including a sub 55 last 800m. He will be winning the right race very soon.

SWEET AS (8) will enjoy the cosy trail from this gate and be probing for the openings. A passing lane winner here 4 starts back look for her firing the closing shots.

SELECTIONS: MISS GRACELAND (5), EL MAJOR (1), CHAPTER ONE (3), SWEET AS (8)
SUGGESTED BET: MISS GRACELAND (5) to win

RACE FOUR

LOCKTON LUCK (2)
put together successive wins including at the 2138m when defeating UNTITLED who has franked that with a subsequent win. Last start in the 4YO Championship, the run had merit when chasing home behind OUR TRIPLE PLAY off the 2nd line. He looks to get his chance from this gate.

LIKEALLOFUS (1) was closing out in good order last week to grab the silver behind UNTITLED. Shuffled back along the pegs here 2 starts back when charging late behind MUSTANG BART, he will enjoy the perfect trip from this gate and be coiled and ready for the sniper shot.

REPLACED EYE (11) has the tough gate to overcome but comes into the race off the back of a strong win when circling the field to the breeze and scoring comfortably. With even luck he can feature.

ELLE YEAH (7) has no favours from the gate but she is a quality mare that will just need a slice of luck to chime into the exotics. A tough run when 3rd to CARLAS PIXEL 2 starts back, she was just too far back last time.

SELECTIONS: LOCKTON LUCK (2), LIKEALLOFUS (1), REPLACED EYE (11), ELLE YEAH (7)
SUGGESTED BET: LOCKTON LUCK (2) to win

RACE FIVE

EFFRONTE (12) will need to use all his class to win this from the car-park, yet he is fine fettle and looks to make it 3 from 3 at AP. He powered home to score from the 2nd line over the mile and followed that with an all the way effort from gate 2, keeping the, all chasing. Should be too good.

MAKO BANNER (3) should appreciate getting into this class of race after taking on some strong line-ups in recent starts from worse gates. Chasing home behind REMEMBER THEM from the 2nd line last start, he did plenty of work the start prior when 10m from LET IT RIDE. Firing an early shot he is in the mix.

SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (11) has been in the money at 8 of his past 9 starts, with his latest run full of merit when doing his share of work in getting to the front and then gunned down in the closing stages by LET IT RIDE. The gate hurts his pattern.

CONSTANTLYSIDEWAYS (10) started from gate 6 last start and was at the rear of the pack when making a challenge. With a cart into the contest he can be charging home late.

SELECTIONS: EFFRONTE (12), MAKO BANNER (3), SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (11), CONSTANTLYSIDEWAYS (10)
SUGGESTED BET: EFFRONTE (12) to win

RACE SIX

OCEANS PREDATOR (9)
only went under a half-head behind PSYCHEDELIC when 2nd up from a break which followed a good run when resuming off gate 11. He will need a slice of luck from the gate but in what looks a wide-open contest he can sneak away with the prize.

NED PEPPER (8) started from gate 7 here on Tues and after being snagged back to the rear was attacking the line strongly in the closing stages to get within 2m of VETTEL. His run 3 back at his AP debut was a tidy effort and with some luck from the alley will be charging.

RED LUCK (1) went back from gate 6 over the 2138m here 2 starts back and was attacking the line in closing stages to get within a half-neck of the winner. With the options from the gate he is right in the fight.

MONIVAE (5) is on the short back-up after going around on Thurs afternoon. He had been meeting some stronger opponents in recent starts with his run via the passing lane 2 starts backs a tidy effort.

SELECTIONS: OCEANS PREDATOR (9), NED PEPPER (8), RED LUCK (1), MONIVAE (5)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE SEVEN

GOODTIME STRIDE (3) sat in the pocket trail on Tues and just lost enough momentum waiting for the passing lane to probably cost her 2nd. She has taken on stronger types in her previous few starts and with enough early speed to fire the 1st shot, looks to get her chance for an overdue win.

SUBTLE ADVICE (4) was sent forward from gate 5 last time out and was working in the run when fighting on well to finish within 3m of the winner THE IDES OF MARCH. Buried in the run 2 starts back, he can look to find early position here and will be right in the mix.

GLENFERRIE BABY (10) was a tough Redcliffe winner 5 starts back and followed that up 2 starts later with a good win when pressing to the front off gate 5. She hasn’t had the best of luck her past 2 starts and will be in contention here.

LIVING GRAND (6) lands another wide gate and has been luckless in landing a marble. His closing efforts were solid 2 starts back behind TOMEARA and a forward showing is well within reach.

SELECTIONS: GOODTIME STRIDE (3), SUBTLE ADVICE (4), GLENFERRIE BABY (10), LIVING GRAND (6)
SUGGESTED BET: GOODTIME STRIDE (3) to win

RACE EIGHT
 

MAJOR OCCASION (3) was having her 1st look at the track in the Qld Oaks when sent forward from the 2nd line to find the breeze. Working hard in transit she shook off the leader and looked to have the race in the bag until SOCIABLE sprouted wings to score. On the strength of that effort and the Frisby team flying, she will be mighty hard to stop.

DARKERSHADEOFPALE (2) has been in all 3 Oaks this carnival and has been off the 2nd line in each one. Her 2 runs from front line gates between the Oaks resulted in victories where she was able to sprint home over the top to score. With the improved gate she is a massive threat in this.

KEILOR MISTY (1) was locked away on the pegs here 2 starts back and hit the line in good order to claim the silver behind PATERNITY SUIT. Her run had merit behind CARLAS PIXEL in the Fleur De Lil and from the gate she will be right in the mix.

BURNING AMBITION (8) has claimed bronze at her past 4 starts in succession with 2 of those in mare’s qualifiers. From the gate she will get the perfect trip and with the pegs looking the place to be in this race can lob for exotic players.

SELECTIONS: Flexi trifecta 2-3 / 1-2-3 / 1-2-3-8
 

RACE NINE

SPUD (6)
shoots for the hat-trick after a pair of impressive wins at opposite ends of the spectrum. A winner over the mobile mile 10 days back from a 2nd line gate, he was on the short back-up into the 3157m Trotters Marathon when sprinting clear from the pocket trail to post a 6m victory. The 10m looks well within reach and it’s hard to look past him.

JUSTABITNOISY (8) loomed up at the 600m in the marathon last week but just peaked on his run to finish 11m from SPUD. Forget his previous start when missing away, he has been knocking on the door and with the right run can bob-up here.

SOUTHERN ALPS (1) started from the 30m here on Tues and coming with a sustained run was able to go past them in the stretch to score a comfortable victory. His run 2 back was a top effort and from the front line will take some stopping.

HUDSON BAY (5) was off 30m here on Tues when pressing ahead in the early stages to take up the running. The early burn to find the front told in the latter stages. Back to the front he can be an improver.

SELECTIONS: SPUD (6), JUSTABITNOISY (8), SOUTHERN ALPS (1), HUDSON BAY (5)
SUGGESTED BET: SPUD (6) to win

RACE TEN

ELZBOY (5)
has been runner-up at his past 2 starts with the latest a tough effort when facing the breeze and getting within 2m of the all-the-way winner THE CARINGBAH KID. His run 2 starts back at Marburg was a strong effort and in an open contest he can get forward early to make the most of his chances.

THE DREAM MAKER (12) has no favours from this alley but did overcome a similar gate at Redcliffe last start when hitting the line in good order from well back. The 4YO has had a spaced preparation and of the tempo is solid can be closing out late.

DIABOLO STAR (9) was an eye-catcher on Wed night when charging home after being locked on the pegs. From the gate he can settle in a handy position and again be swooping home.

DEADLY ROCKER (11) was buried away on the pegs on Wed night and took the inside runs to claim the bronze behind RUFFALO. A Redcliffe winner 3 starts back he has some hopes in this.

SELECTIONS: ELZBOY (5), THE DREAM MAKER (12), DIABOLO STAR (9), DEADLY ROCKER (11)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 5-9-11-12