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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park May 11

Form Analysis: Albion Park May 11

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

SOUTHERN ALPS (7)
will strip fitter following 1 run back from a spell. Making an early error he chased hard and was hitting the line nicely to be within 3m of the winner. 3rd to NEEDLE in the McNeil final at his last run before taking a break, he can make light work of the 40m in this.

MY PRECIOUS YANKEE (1) was 1st up since November when leading them up over this trip and grabbed in the closing stages. That was a tidy return to the track after a 4 start campaign to start his career and with the added fitness he can look to take them all the way.

DOWN UNDER RORS (3) is safe from the tapes and can get in a good position in the early stages and be ready to issue a closing challenge. Beaten 3.5m and 2m at his past 2, he is honing in on a victory.

JUSTABITLIKEMUM (5) claimed the silver in a similar race 3 starts back when hitting the line nicely to get within a neck of the winner. Forget her last start at Redcliffe, this suits and she can podium.

SELECTIONS: SOUTHERN ALPS (7), MY PRECIOUS YANKEE (1), DOWN UNDER RORS (3), JUSTABITLIKEMUM (5)
SUGGESTED BET: SOUTHERN ALPS (7) to win

 

RACE TWO

GOLD REACTOR (1) will be tightened from his 1st up run at Redcliffe where he ended up a long way back in the run when looking for position. That was his 1st start for his 3YO term and was last seen when mid-field behind COLT THIRTY ONE in the 2YO Triad. With his best alley he can breakthrough.

MICKEE CULLEN (9) has started 3 times at Redcliffe this season and been the favourite on each occasion and has been unable to get the job done. The latest run he worked early from gate 5 but was beaten a long way out. Back to the bigger track and a good trail through he can be an improver.

KATHLEEN GRACE (6) will strip fitter following her return as the fav over the 1780m at Redcliffe. Looming up she held 2nd behind the fast finishing CHUMP CHOP. She has place claims from the tough gate.

MICKS MEMORY (2) is a 1st starter for Jamie Donovan by Mr Feelgood out of the G1 winner Don’t Fall For Me. The 2nd of his 2 trials this time in was a handy effort and he can podium on debut.

SELECTIONS: GOLD REACTOR (1), MICKEE CULLEN (9), KATHLEEN GRACE (6), MICKS MEMORY (2)
SUGGESTED BET: GOLD REACTOR (1) to win

RACE THREE

CATCHA LEFTY (7) has started from the tapes just once and that was close on 2 years ago when taking on the 2016 Premiers Cup as a 3YO. He returned from a NSW campaign that culminated with a M0 Menangle win when taking on a 2138m event from gate 7 where he couldn’t work into the contest. He can bounce back from the 10m.

MACH ALERT (9) pings the tapes and last start over the marathon trip was soon in front from a 20m impost and controlled the tempo for a strong win. He shoots for the hat-trick and despite the 30m he is the main danger.

GEORGIA GRACE (4) was away well at her stand debut and bouncing in front released MACH ALERT when he came calling and then ran him to 4.5m. She can look to get to the front again here and over the 2138m will be in the fight.

GRINVIL (2) steps up in company here but has been racing well and was well away from the tapes at her 2 runs. She worked home well behind MARETTI last start and can bob-up in the exotics at a big price.

SELECTIONS: CATCHA LEFTY (7), MACH ALERT (9), GEORGIA GRACE (4), GRINVIL (2)
SUGGESTED BET: CATCHA LEFTY (7) to win

RACE FOUR

BELLS BEACH HOUSE (1)
looked to have found his race 2 starts back and fired off the arm went in search of the front but was denied the lamp lighting duties. Facing the breeze he worked hard and faded in the closing stages. His run was good from the 2nd line last start and from the gate he gets his chance to dictate.

GET IN THE GROOVE (10) was searching for a hat-trick of victories last start and from gate 2 settled with running line cover and finished 4.5m from the winner SPARKLING CULLECT.  There should be an even tempo here and with the right trail into the contest can finish in the money.

YANKEE STRUTTER (8) was a tidy 3m 2nd to MONTANA FALCON in claiming company 3 starts back and has found the line well at his past 2 from back in the pack. With a cosy trip he can feature.

CHERISH THE MOMENT (6) worked away from the inside here 2 starts back and finished over the top to score victory as the fav. Working hard in the run last start she will need to work again here and looks an exotic hope.

SELECTIONS: BELLS BEACH HOUSE (1), GET IN THE GROOVE (10), YANKEE STRUTTER (8), CHERISH THE MOMENT (6)
SUGGESTED BET: BELLS BEACH HOUSE (1) to win

RACE FIVE

THREE OF THE BEST (1) resumes from a break and was last seen back in March when working hard in the run but losing no admirers when a neck from the winner in a slick closing 800m. That followed an all the way win from gate 3 in a Rising Stars Final and he will be looking to fight them off.

PSYCHEDELIC (8) closed out strongly from the 2nd line to score a Rising Stars final 5 starts back. A beaten fav at each of his next 3 starts he has been hitting the line strongly in each run. Luckless last start behind STATEMENT MADE, he will be ready to take the last shot here.

SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (4) is quick off the gate and can look to fire out and test the 1 in the early stages. A qualifying winner 2 starts back when finding the front over the 2138m he can throw down the challenge.

ZARAS DELIGHT (9) settled in the running line from gate 2 last start and powered home to score a good win over the mile. She can settle in a good spot here and be well positioned to swoop late.

SELECTIONS: THREE OF THE BEST (1), PSYCHEDELIC (8), SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (4), ZARAS DELIGHT (9)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 1-4-8-9

RACE SIX

GLENFERRIE DUSTER (8)
was lining up for a hat-trick of victories since arriving in Qld when claiming silver behind the talented SKYFELLA CAM last time out. That followed successive Redcliffe wins and with the cosy trip here will need some factors to go his way but can take the closing shot to score.

NEVAEH (1) ended up back in the pack from gate 5 over the 1780m at Redcliffe 2 starts back and then last start was buried away off gate 4. With good early speed she can look to hold them out and will be fighting hard to land her 1st win in almost 12 months.

OUR DREAM TO REALITY (7) lines up for visiting trainer Jamie Cassar and has only started twice since arriving from NZ. He will strip fitter for his latest start when resuming from a break with an all the way Bankstown win. He can get forward and apply the heat here.

HARD TO HEAR (9) went back from gate 6 last start and was too far back to get into the contest behind KEY LARGO. His run 4 back was a good effort behind ROCK WITH SAM and he will be charging home late.

SELECTIONS: GLENFERRIE DUSTER (8), NEVAEH (1), OUR DREAM TO REALITY (7), HARD TO HEAR (9)
SUGGESTED BET: GLENFERRIE DUSTER (8) to win

RACE SEVEN

NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (1) had been runner-up in 3 successive runs, 2 of those behind ARGYLE BEACH. Rewarded for the effort he made the most of his best gate to score a comfortable all the way victory. From the gate he gets every chance to repeat the win.

ASHLEYS ANGEL (8) used the passing lane to get within 3m of the winner PARISIAM ROCKSTAR 2 starts back. Buried away last start she couldn’t get into the race taken out by MARETTI. Woth the cosy trip here she can be in the money.

BUCKHORN EXCHANGE (6) is racing well and cashed-in last start with the right run and finished best to take a half-head victory. He faces a sticky gate here but can find position and storm home late.

BELLA RIPPIN (4) returns from a freshen and lands an improved gate from her past 3 starts where she has started from 6, 7 and 9. Only 3.5m from the winner MONKSEATON after racing tough 3 starts back she can feature.

SELECTIONS: NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (1), ASHLEYS ANGEL (8), BUCKHORN EXCHANGE (6), BELLA RIPPIN (4)
SUGGESTED BET: NEWMERELLA SHARKIE (1) to win

RACE EIGHT

CHEAP TINT (8)
pressed ahead from gate 4 to find the front over the mile 2 starts back and after a 27.6 opener still had enough in the tank to hold them off. Forced to cut the breeze last start he fought to the line and with a cosy trip here will be ready for the gaps to open and take his shot.

STIRLING WILLIAM (7) has the tough gate to overcome but is racing well in this type of grade with 5 placings in his past 6 starts. Buried away on the pegs last start he sprinted sharply once the gaps opened to get within 2m of the winner. He will be sailing home.

MAJOR KIWI (3) made career start 200 a memorable one last time out when angling off the inside to find running line cover and then finish the best to score. He can settle handy from the gate and feature.

SECRET SMILE (1) looked to take them all the way last start and was only grabbed in the closing stages. He can look to light the lamps again here and although the 2138m is not really his go, he can hang on in the exotics.

SELECTIONS: CHEAP TINT (8), STIRLING WILLIAM (7), MAJOR KIWI (3), SECRET SMILE (1)
SUGGESTED BET: STIRLING WILLIAM (7) to place

RACE NINE

MISTER BLACKJACK (2)
will take benefit from his latest run in a Rising Stars heat when burning early behind COLT THIRTY ONE. That was his 1st run in 7 weeks and from this gate can look to pull the trigger early to take control and then fight them off.

INVINCIBLE LOXTON (7) started off the 2nd line last start and was doing the hard yards out 3-wide trying to work into the contest when 4th to PARISIAN ROCKSTAR. A strong winner from the breeze after rolling forward from gate 7 here 2 starts back, he can apply the heat here and is in this.

LENNY THE LEGEND (10) was behind the leader PARISIAN ROCKSTAR last start and was poised to take the last shot but didn’t have the zing to get him. From the running line he will be hoping the up-front pressure is strong and be swooping.

JAZZY ARTIST (1) gets back to AP after campaigning at Redcliffe in recent starts and was a winner there 5 starts back. With a cosy trip here she can finish into the money.

SELECTIONS: MISTER BLACKJACK (2), INVINCIBLE LOXTON (7), LENNY THE LEGEND (10), JAZZY ARTIST (1)
SUGGESTED BET: MISTER BLACKJACK (2) to win

RACE TEN

SKYLARHAIN (1)
sat in the pocket trail in a mares qualifier 2 starts back and grabbed the bronze behind MISS KENNY. Making the most of the ace gate last start at Marburg she led them all the way and ran home a strong closing 800m around the tight track. She can look to fight them off here.

WHISKEY BLAZE (11) gets no favours from the gate but has met some slightly stronger types in recent outings. Starting fav from this same gate last start he was working home strongly when within 2m of the all the way winner MACH SAM. He can issue a strong challenge once more.

INVITE ONLY (6) went back from gate 7 in a mares qualifier 4 starts back and was finishing hard to get within 5m of the winner GET IN THE GROOVE. An all the way winner at Redcliffe 2 starts back she can get forward here and throw down a challenge.

ONLY IN ROME (12) was 10m from SKYFELLA CAM last start after taking the pocket trail and 2 starts back was closing out strongly from back in the pack. He will need some luck from the gate but will be closing hard.

SELECTIONS: SKYLARHAIN (1), WHISKEY BLAZE (11), INVITE ONLY (6), ONLY IN ROME (12)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-6-11-12