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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park May 12

Form Analysis: Albion Park May 12

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

STATEMENT MADE (2)
has been in superb form all season and gets the chance for a big reward with a victory here. Holding the front off gate 1 last start he was able to secure a 2nd panel breather and had plenty in store through a 27.7 closer. He can force his way to the front here and hold on for the win.

MARETTI (12) has been equally impressive this season and secured 7 wins for the term with 5 of those coming in his past 6 starts. Sent forward from the 2nd line last start and taking control in the middle stages over the 2138m trip he was too strong. The gate hurts but he is right in the mix.

CLINTAL DO (13) faces the tough gate and will need to be working wide in the run at some stage. He finished best to take a qualifying win last start in good style and can be in the mix here.

TYGAR (3) has returned from a mid-term break in good style and has secured successive wins in NSW leading into this. Last start he flew from back in the pack for a classy win that was .1 off the Penrith track record. Look for him flying late.

SELECTIONS: STATEMENT MADE (2), MARETTI (12), CLINTAL DO (13), TYGAR (3)
SUGGESTED BET: STATEMENT MADE (2) to win

 

RACE TWO

ELENIARK (7) has been kept fresh to target this race and despite coming up with the tough gate has the class to put them away. Strong to the line last start back in March from this same gate over the mile in good time she has not raced since. Given a sharp trial to blow the cobwebs, this looks hers.

JOSSIE JAMES (8) looked to be no chance of victory over this trip 2 starts back, but she somehow sprouted wings and arrived on the line for victory. Within a half-neck of the winner last start, she will be probing for gaps and be swooping hard in the closing stages.

COLIN MATTGREGOR (2) will strip fitter for her 1st up run at Bankstown when closing strongly from a 2nd line gate. From the gate she can look to settle handy and with a good trip has claims.

BONNIE JUJON (1) will be looking to add the 4YO title to her 3YO Triad triumph and comes into the contest with 2 wins at her past 4 starts. Hustling early to protect the inside, she can fill the placings.

SELECTIONS: ELENIARK (7), JOSSIE JAMES (8), COLIN MATTGREGOR (2), BONNIE JUJON (1)
SUGGESTED BET: ELENIARK (7) to win

RACE THREE

OPONINIS BLISS (1) has a handy record and has been kept fresh to tackle this race. Last seen back in January when working hard in the run outside GOVINNI, she ran COLT THIRTY ONE to 4.5m 4 starts back. With a nice trial to sharpen up for this, she can use the inside advantage to take the victory.

BRONSKI MACKENZIE (9) lines up for Kylie Rasmussen for the 1st time and comes into the race fresh and without a public trial. A big 21m winner at Redcliffe last start when leading all the way from gate 2 and running a nice closing panel. She will need a slice of luck from this gate but is in the mix.
DATSGOOD (7) has been runner-up at her past 2 at Redcliffe when working hard in the run from gate 6 in each. No favours from wide on the track here, she can get forward early and put herself in the fight.

ARCH EMPRESS (8) found the pocket trail from gate 3 on Wed night at Redcliffe but didn’t want to take the passing lane. If she can work to the outside with space to work with she can be an improver here.

SELECTIONS: OPONINIS BLISS (1), BRONSKI MACKENZIE (9), DATSGOOD (7), ARCH EMPRESS (8)
SUGGESTED BET: OPONINIS BLISS (1) to win

RACE FOUR

RUHTREBO (1)
returned a winner 1st up for his 3YO term here 3 starts back when spearing out from gate 4 and then taking the trail. He worked hard to find the front at his next start and then his latest run was his 1st at the 2138m trip when wide from gate 7.  With the gate advantage and options he can take this.

HERBS HERO (8) will be sweating on the 1 looking to go all the way and if that scenario eventuates he will be ready to take the closing shot. Given 1 start as a 2YO, he was put away and since returning at 3YO has won each of his 3 starts, the latest a tough win at Young. Will be probing for the gaps.

ARK PATROL (4) comes into this fresh after last racing in a Gold Pot heat in March when 7m from the winner. His only run at the 2138m saw him lead from this same gate as a 2YO and with 1 trial where he was carted back in the run was hard to gauge. At his best he is right in this.

GOT THE GOODS (6) has been top 3 at his past 5 starts and scored a lone victory in those. He looked to have his chance to win on Tues from the front but was gunned down by COREY WILLIAM. He can podium again here.

SELECTIONS: RUHTREBO (1), HERBS HERO (8), ARK PATROL (4), GOT THE GOODS (6)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 1-4-6-8

RACE FIVE

RED CHARMER (1) shoots for a hat-trick of victories after sweeping a Gold Pot series, her win in the final a tidy effort when sprinting sharply to score. Her heat win was a tough effort from the breeze. With her sharp sprint if she can get the cosy trip she can knockout her more fancied stablemates.

FAME ASSURED (7) looks the smartest of the fillies in this race but has the horror gate to overcome. 3 starts back she secured a NSW Oaks heat win when pressing forward to take control and running a strong 2400m. Only 10m away in the final, her latest start was in the Vic Oaks heats. Clear threat.

AQUA MISS (4) has the gate advantage over FAME ASSURED and can look to make the most of that chance. In the reverse of her stablemate, she missed the NSW Oaks final but was a Vic Oaks heat winner and was then luckless in the final. Will be fighting it out.

GETOUTNWALK (8) has had a great season and been top 3 in 11 of 14 appearances with 3 of those being victories. From this gate she will get the cosy trip and can  run on late to fill the F4.

SELECTIONS: RED CHARMER (1), FAME ASSURED (7), AQUA MISS (4), GETOUTNWALK (8)
SUGGESTED BET: RED CHARMER (1) to cause the upset

RACE SIX

COLT THIRTY ONE (6)
brutalised his opponents last start when they held him 3-wide for the last 1000m and by the home turn had put them away for the easiest of wins. He can amble forward in the early stages and then take control to stay undefeated in Qld. Extremely hard to see an upset.

TUESDAYS FELLA (1) has been racing well and been top 3 at his past 3. A passing lane winner 2 starts back when closing out strongly, he is 1 from 1 at the 2138m trip and has the early speed to hold the inside advantage. He can release the power when it arrives and then finish best of the rest.

ONLY ONE PROMISE (8) was a tough winner from gate 6 over the mile 3 starts back. He hit the line well last start from back in the pack and can follow the pegs through to the podium.

COREY WILLIAM (5) was too tough here on Tues when cutting the breeze and then putting them away. He can look to roll forward here and likely to work again be fighting on to the line.

SELECTIONS: COLT THIRTY ONE (6), TUESDAYS FELLA (1), ONLY ONE PROMISE (8), COREY WILLIAM (5)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifecta 6/ 1/ 5-8-12

RACE SEVEN

MISS MONEYBAGS (3) has 4 wins from her 6 career starts with both misses coming when she broke gait in the run to end her chances. Throwing her chances away in the APG heat, she bounced back with a Repechage victory before making an error in the final at Menangle. Trialling well since, she can look to restore normal transmission here.

CUPCAKESNWHIPCREAM (2) made a hit-run Redcliffe mission for her 2nd career start and closed out strongly to score in good style. Taken back from gate 6 at Penrith last start she again hit the line strongly for a 4m 2nd. She can look to settle in a handy position and be swooping home late.
 
THATS BETTOR (1)
was good in the final of the fillies APG at Menangle in finishing mid-field behind the ultra-smart SOHO NOLITA.  A winner in 2 of her 4 starts with both victories here at AP when leading all the way, she will be gripping to the lead here.

SMART AS CAMM BE (4) was taken back off the gate last start and sitting patiently then finished best in a strong closing panel to take a 4m victory. With successive wins she can be looking to finish off strongly here.

SELECTIONS: MISS MONEYBAGS (3), CUPCAKESNWHIPCREAM (2), THATS BETTOR (1), SMART AS CAMM BE (4)
SUGGESTED BET: CUPCAKESNWHIPCREAM (2) each-way

RACE EIGHT

LEFT A TERROR (1)
showed great benefit from a travelling trip that saw placings in 2 of 3 starts when returning home and going straight to the front from gate 3 and dictating terms to hold on for a neck victory. 1st up in over 4 weeks when scoring that win he has the options here and fitter from that win can cash-in again..

CAPITALIZE (9) has placed in all 3 career starts with the most recent when cutting the breeze outside LEFT A TERROR and running him to a neck. Grabbed in the closing stages after leading them up 2 starts back he can look to settle handy here and be ready to issue a late challenge.

REGULUS (2) travels north for Rickie Alchin and will be 1st up since late March when beaten as a red figure fav at Bathurst in a Gold Crown Bronze consolation. He blew the cobwebs out with a tidy Bankstown trial and with good early speed can throw down an early challenge.

ROCKNROLL CLASSIC (3) will take benefit from his 1st up win when on debut at Redcliffe. Sprinting sharply once the gap presented he scored by 2m over SAMS THE BEST. He can find position and with natural progression has podium claims.

SELECTIONS: LEFT A TERROR (1), CAPITALIZE (9, REGULUS (2), ROCKNROLL CLASSIC (3)
SUGGESTED BET: LEFT A TERROR (1) to win

RACE NINE

IMPRESSIVE DIAMOND (4)
made her debut on Wed night at Redcliffe when easily holding the front off gate 1 and controlling the tempo to score a comfortable victory. The short back-up may present some concern and while this is a step up, she can look to make the progression.

ARK ME (2) worked in the run last start when on debut at Redcliffe and dug in for the fight when going under a half-neck behind FAVOURITE MISS. From the gate she can look to fire the 1st shot and with improvement can issue a challenge in this.

CHERRYS THE BEST (11) is still searching for a maiden breaking win after placing at her past 4 starts in succession. Her run 3 starts back was a strong effort when cutting the breeze from gate 7 and going within a nose of victory. A big danger.

ZARAS ALL GOOD (1) has faced the starter twice and been well beaten in each. 2nd up she made an error and was banished to the trials. Going around twice at the trials. The 2nd of those was a nice effort and from the gate she can be an improver.

SELECTIONS: IMPRESSIVE DIAMOND (4), ARK ME (2), CHERRYS THE BEST (11), ZARAS ALL GOOD (1)
SUGGESTED BET: IMPRESSIVE DIAMOND (4) to win

RACE TEN

LIFES BLACK (1)
started off the 2nd line on debut at Redcliffe and loomed up strongly after making a move at the 400m to get within 2m of the winner. Back to the front line, he has displayed good gate speed in a trial and can look to take control and break his maiden status in this.

POINT OH FIVE (4) is a Mcardle gelding on debut for the Grant Dixon barn. In 2 trials he has done everything correctly without being asked for too much. From the gate he can find a handy position. In an open event to close the night he stays under notice.

FORTYFIVE ROCK (6) was 2nd up when finishing an 11m 3rd to SMART AS CAMM BE after racing in the trail from gate 1. That was his 2nd career start and with further improvement can make his presence felt in this line-up.

GIZZMO (3) was buried away on the pegs last start and the tempo was against him when mid-field behind MAYWYN NO REGRETS.  His 2 other career starts were handy efforts and he can feature in this.

SELECTIONS: LIFES BLACK (1), POINT OH FIVE (4), FORTYFIVE ROCK (6), GIZZMO (3)
SUGGESTED BET: LIFES BLACK (1) to win