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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park May 4

Form Analysis: Albion Park May 4

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

MATRON JUJON (3)
was a winner on debut at Redcliffe from the 2nd line when she worked in the race strongly to finish over the top. She followed that with a tough run when 3.5m from ONYA DOUG after working forward to the breeze. In a tricky opener to the day she can sneak away with the loot.

IFYOUBELIEVE (7) will take good benefit from his latest outing when returning from a freshen. Given 2 starts off a long break and then the latest freshen, he has started 3 times since August. Looking to take them all the way last time his condition wilted. Despite the gate he can be sharper here.

LONG LEGS LOU (1) has placed at her past 4 starts as she still searches for a maiden 3YO victory. Beaten as a red figure fav last start she has the options here and can feature in this line-up.

HEADWIN (6) found his race 3 starts back when pressing to the front at Marburg and taking control to lead all the way. Last week from this same gate he closed out nicely to grab silver behind VINNIE THE POET and again has place claims.

SELECTIONS: MATRON JUJON (3), IFYOUBELIEVE (7), LONG LEGS LOU (1), HEADWIN (6)
SUGGESTED BET: MATRON JUJON (3) to win

RACE TWO

CIRCLE LINE (4) should appreciate this class of opposition after taking on some stronger types in recent starts. He looked to have found his race last start over the 2138m trip and leading them up was gone at the turn. Back to the mile will suit his chances and he can bounce back.

SMILING ARMADA (1) will be further tightened from his latest start when 2nd up from a break. Resuming on the grass at Kilcoy he started from the widest gate and worked home well before going back from gate 5 last week. With the improved gate he can use his early speed and feature here.

RED LUCK (9) didn’t handle the track 2 starts back at Kilcoy and showed the improvement of getting back to AP when finishing 3rd to HEZ RAZOR SHARP. Beaten 7m here 4 starts back he is in the mix.

KURAHAUPO GAMBLER (3) has faced some wider gates at his past 3 starts that has seen him go back early and working home in the latter stages. He can roll forward from the improved gate and throw down a challenge.

SELECTIONS: CIRCLE LINE (4), SMILING ARMADA (1), RED LUCK (9), KURAHAUPO GAMBLER (3)
SUGGESTED BET: CIRCLE LINE (4) to win

RACE THREE

HERES MY NUMBER (8) will need factors to go his way here, but with the 1 looking to have the speed to lead can be glued to his back and take the snipers shot. He hit the line nicely 2 starts back when 3rd to MAJOR GENERALJUJON and the effort as good when going back from gate 6 last start.

VINNIE THE POET (1) will take great benefit from his return to the track last week when making his 1st 3YO appearance. Starting in red figures he had little trouble in holding the front and took them all the way. He will be looking to repeat that here and will be gripping on.

ITSMEGS (4) will be tightened following her return to the track from a break when a narrow winner in good style at Redcliffe. That was her 2nd start since August and from the gate will be in the mix.

MINI MIRACLE (2) has placed in 3 of her past 4 starts with the most recent a good effort from gate 7 when taken back early to find position and then hitting the line strongly in the closing stages. From the gate she can settle handy.

SELECTIONS: HERES MY NUMBER (8), VINNIE THE POET (1), ITSMEGS (4), MINI MIRACLE (2)
SUGGESTED BET:  HERES MY NUMBER / VINNIE THE POET (1/8) Quinella

RACE FOUR

BLUE EYED CREATION (1)
was a stylish Marburg winner 4 starts back when defeating subsequent Aspirational winner NEWMERELLA SHARKIE. Last start at Redcliffe he looked to take them all the way when grabbed in the closing stages and beaten a half-neck. With the options he can go close.

MAJORDOIT (5) completed a hat-trick of victories last start including a sweep of the Marburg Goldstrike Series. Stepping cleanly from the tapes in the stand stat feature final he was strong from the front and ran good closing sections. Freshened since that win he can be right in the mix here.

ALWAYS A JEWEL (2) shoots for the hat-trick after landing a tough win from the breeze here last start over the 2138m trip. Closing strongly after a slow opening 800m she was too good and is right in consideration here.

ARTFUL MAID (8) made a successful return from a spell in restricted company at Redcliffe last start when finishing strongly over the top. With the options as the lone 2nd line runner she has claims.

SELECTIONS: BLUE EYED CREATION (1), MAJORDOIT (5), ALWAYS A JEWEL (2), ARTFUL MAID (8)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-2-5-8

RACE FIVE

MACH SAM (1) was taken back from gate 7 last start and was too far back to issue a challenge. A good winner at Redcliffe 4 starts back from gate 10, he has found his race here and from the ace gate can look to hold the front early and then just complete the procession to score an all the way win.

ARES (8) was looking to work into the race wide out last start and was fair to the line behind he clear-out winner NEWMERELLA SHARKIE. He draws to get an easy peg-run for the 1st time in quite a while and following through will be ready to issue a late challenge.

SHERIFF JUJON (10) has been racing at Redcliffe and should appreciate getting back to AP in this type of race. A passing lane 2nd 4 starts back he was finding the line strongly last start and can fill the placings.

ZED CODE (3) has been no closer than gate 6 at her past 5 starts and can look to make the most of the improved gate here. Closing nicely to be 6m from TUESDAYS FELLA 2 starts back, she can be an improver.

SELECTIONS: MACH SAM (1), ARES (8), SHERIFF JUJON (10), ZED CODE (3)
SUGGESTED BET: MACH SAM (1) to win

RACE SIX

FIRE ONE (8)
will be sweating on the 1 holding the front, but with that looking the scenario she can be poised and ready to issue the closing shot. A mares qualifier winner last start when leading all the way from gate 3 that followed a tough 3rd behind ROCKONBYE. She can land the wining blow here.

ONLY IN ROME (1) lands his best gate for some time and will be tightened from his latest start when resuming from a freshen. Buried away after going back from gate 7 last start he closed strongly to get within 4m of the winner IOWNATURBO. He gets every chance here and will be gripping on.

GLENFERRIE DUSTER (4) is undefeated in 2 starts since arriving in Qld with both wins coming at Redcliffe and both when starting fav. This is a tougher assignment but he still gets his chance.

SKYFELLA CAM (3) made the most of gate 1 last week and was able to hold the early lead and once in control dictate terms. Only lightly raced he is building well and can feature again here.

SELECTIONS: FIRE ONE (8), ONLY IN ROME (1), GLENFERRIE DUSTER (4), SKYFELLA CAM (3)
SUGGESTED BET: FIRE ONE (8) to win

RACE SEVEN

LENNY THE LEGEND (8) has been racing well without the greatest of luck and working home strongly in his races. Beaten 2m behind PSYCHEDELIC 3 starts back in a Rising Stars Final he then struck trouble at his next run. With good closing speed when saved up, he follows the likely leader and will be ready to strike.

PARISIAN ROCKSTAR (1) had been racing well without landing a blow and was closing strongly when 3m from SUBTLE DELIGHT 3 starts back. 2 starts back he was sent to the front from gate 4 and fought hard to the line to score. Too far back last time he will be looking to dictate this.

INVINCIBLE LOXTON (9) rolled forward from gate 7 last start and once outside the leader applied the acid when too strong in running home in 55.5. He can get forward again here and give this a shake.

ROCKONBYE (3) does her best work when saved for a closing sprint and can hit the line hard. A winner of a mares qualifier 3 starts back her past 2 have been in a Rising Stars Series. Settling handy she can be swooping late.

SELECTIONS: LENNY THE LEGEND (8), PARISIAN ROCKSTAR (1), INVINCIBLE LOXTON (9), ROCKONBYE (3)
SUGGESTED BET: LENNY THE LEGEND (8) to win

RACE EIGHT

SECRET SMILE (3)
has had his runs spaced at his past 5 and steps out here 7 days later for the 1st time in that period. Last start he was 3 back along the markers and ran home well to grab the bronze behind CHEAP TINT. He can look to work across to the pegs and from the front can take catching.

NUREYEV (9) hit the line strongly from back in the pack last start when 6m behind MONTANA FALCON after starting from gate 5. Closing out hard here 3 starts back behind MAYWYNS BEST, he should enjoy a good trip here and can strike in the latter stages.

MOHEGAN SUN (2) has been thereabouts in recent starts and last time out used the passing lane to get within 2m of the winner CHEAP TINT. From the gate he can settle handy and has podium claims again.

MAJOR KIWI (1) will be fitter from 2 runs back since a break with his 1st up run a tidy effort at Redcliffe behind PROBY ONE. Too far back last start he can settle closer here and be in the money at career start 200.

SELECTIONS: SECRET SMILE (3), NUREYEV (9), MOHEGAN SUN (2), MAJOR KIWI (1)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE NINE

STATEMENT MADE (1)
has been in great form all season, finishing in the money at 12 of 14 starts and has not missed a top 3 finish in 6 runs since resuming from a break. Finishing within a nose of the winner last start after settling in the running line he has the speed to lead and take them all the way.

BET IM SPECIAL (8) will be glued to his stablemates back all the way and be ready to take his shot when the gaps open. He beat STATEMENT MADE last start when leading all the way from gate 2 and with the snipers shot will be waiting for the time to strike.

PSYCHDELIC (2) will land handy here and be trying to issue a closing challenge. Runner-up at his past 2 starts when beaten 2m and 3m look for him swooping late.

OUTLAW FELLA (10) made a mess of the start last time out and has been banished to the outside draw. Runner-up at each of his previous 2 starts he has podium claims here from the tough gate.

SELECTIONS: STATEMENT MADE (1), BET IM SPECIAL (8), PSYCHDELIC (2), OUTLAW FELLA (10)
SUGGESTED BET: STATEMENT MADE / BET IM SPECIAL (1/8) Quinella