1. Home
  2. News & Guides
  3. May 2018
  4. Form Analysis: Marburg May 7

Form Analysis: Marburg May 7

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

CHANG (1)
lands the good gate and can look to make the most of the inside advantage. Starting from wide gate at his past 3 starts, he has been working home from the rear in 2 and cut the breeze in the other. The improved gate can see him take control and look to break a long winless streak.

ELUSIVE PROMISE (5) resumes from a spell and has featured in a stable change since she last was on the track. Stepping out for Ron Sallis here her last start saw her race tough when 5m from the winner MISS POSITIVITY. Trialling well enough to suggest this is within reach, she just needs a slice of luck from the gate.

DON’T BE JEALOUS (4) returns from a long layoff and was racing in good touch when last in. Last start over the Redcliffe 1780m she hit the line nicely behind CELTIC CRUZA. First-up she can fill the minors.

CERTAINLYSOMETHING (9) settle back in the pack and worked home in good order last start on the grass at Kilcoy. Forget her run 2 back when making an error, she can look to work home into the money.

SELECTIONS: CHANG (1), ELUSIVE PROMISE (5), DON’T BE JEALOUS (4), CERTAINLYSOMETHING (9)
SUGGESTED BET: CHANG (1) to win

RACE TWO

SKYLARHAIN (1) started from this gate in a mares qualifier last start and along the passing lane went within 2.5m of the winner. 3 starts back she looked to take them all the wat when grabbed in the latter stages by ROCKONBYE. She looks to get into this perfectly and from the gat can take control.

THUNDER MAC (8) was a stylish Albion Park winner 3 starts back when leading throughout from the five hole over the 2138m trip. Claiming the bronze at his next start behind INVINCIBLE LOXTON, he was luckless on Tues behind KEY LARGO. He is right in contention here.

HEEZ PERFECT (6) has been a source of great frustration in his career and resumes here after a 5 start prep last time in. A talented performer when right he comes in here without a trial but should get a perfect trip and be looking for space in the closing stages.

WECANONLYHOPE (2) dropped to the pegs from a 2nd line gate at Redcliffe 3 starts back and was closing out hard to get within a half-neck of the winner. Settling handy here she can be in the mix.

SELECTIONS: SKYLARHAIN (1), THUNDER MAC (8), HEEZ PERFECT (6), WECANONLYHOPE (2)
SUGGESTED BET: SKYLARHAIN (1) to win

RACE THREE

HIGH CLOUD LASS (5) added another minor placing to her tally last start to make it 9 of her past 11 with a top 3 finish. Getting within 2m of IVANOV 3 starts back, she was closing out strongly 2 starts back behind ASTRAL RULER. With an excellent Marburg record, she can look to press on and score.

STEVES STAR (10) has the big handicap to overcome, however that may work in his favour with some congested lines ahead of her looking to make clean starts. Sent forward to the breeze last start from this same impost, she fought hard to go under by 3m. She can look to repeat that run here.

OLE SUN (4) will be further tightened from his latest run when 2nd up from a break. Taking the pocket trail off gate 1, he finished best up the passing lane to score. He is right in the fight.

MAPLE CROWN (1) is the lone front line runner as she looks to cast aside her maiden tag. Stepping cleanly over this trip last start she couldn’t see it out and faded off. Her chances rest on being left alone in front.

SELECTIONS: HIGH CLOUD LASS (5), STEVES STAR (10), OLE SUN (4), MAPLE CROWN (1)
SUGGESTED BET: HIGH CLOUD LASS (5) to win

RACE FOUR

GETINANHANGON (7)
took on a heat of the Goldstrike and struck COREY WILLIAM in his heat and didn’t get the cleanest run when finishing down the line. Finding the front over the 1850m trip at his next start when fav he was a 4m 2nd to NOTMUCHUPTOP. In an open contest he can push through.

VELOCE BELLA (5) will appreciate this after taking on stronger line-ups at her past 2 starts. Settling on the pegs last start over the 2138m she finished 4th to PINUP BOY.  A maiden winner at Redcliffe 5 starts back when working home off the 2nd line in good order, she is in the mix despite the gate.

NOTMUCHUPTOP (6) will need his share of luck from this gate but if able to see space with track to work with can issue a challenge. A winner when pressing on to the front 3 starts back his pasty 2 have been good.

SLIPPERY ART (1) can look to make the most of the improved gate after finding himself trying to work home from back in the pack at his past 3 starts. He can be sharper from this alley.

SELECTIONS: GETINANHANGON (7), VELOCE BELLA (5), NOTMUCHUPTOP (6), SLIPPERY ART (1)
SUGGESTED BET: GETINANHANGON (7) to win

RACE FIVE

VILLAGE CRUISER (8) was in the market at Redcliffe on Thurs and starting from gate 4 rolled forward and was forced to work. 4 starts back he claimed the silver in a Marburg to Albion heat and was luckless behind a tiring leader in the final. With even luck he can work over the top of these.

MACS CHOICE (1) returned an improved effort on Thurs at Redcliffe from the pocket trail which followed a tidy effort behind BUDDY BABCOCK. With the cosy trip from this gate he might just find himself in front here and lighting the lamps can give plenty of cheek in this line-up.

JUST PIT BOSS (6) has faced the starter 4 times since arriving in Qld and resumes off a freshen here. Well held in those 4 local starts, he will get a cosy trip from the gate and can be an improver.

MISS ROB ROY (7) was buried away on the pegs at Redcliffe 2 starts back and tracked home well to finish 9m from the winner ARTFUL MAID. She took on a much stronger event 3 starts back and has claims in this.

SELECTIONS: VILLAGE CRUISER (8), MACS CHOICE (1), JUST PIT BOSS (6), MISS ROB ROY (7)
SUGGESTED BET: VILLAGE CRUISER (8) to win

RACE SIX

JACK HAMMER (2)
worked forward from gate 6 in a 2nd division band 5 race last start and held ground when 10m from the winner TOP TRIO. He does his best work when able to get forward and with brilliant stand manners and a great record at the tapes, he can get forward and dictate.

MAJOR SCORE (5) will find this easier than the stand he took on last start when locked away on the pegs and sprinting home sharply to finish 3m from the winner MACH ALERT. That was his debut from the tapes and with a similar effort can give this a shake.

PROFICIENT (4) is racing in top form and has been a winner in 2 of his past 4 starts. Forced to work in the run last start he fought hard to the line when 3m 3rd to IOWNATURBO. He is in the mix, just needs to step cleanly.

PLAYNSERIOUS (8) is another making his 1st race appearance from the tapes.A strong winner at AP 4 starts back when sent around to the breeze, he is off the short back-up and has the handy record of 2 wins from 3 starts at the track.

SELECTIONS: JACK HAMMER (2), MAJOR SCORE (5), PROFICIENT (4), PLAYNSERIOUS (8)
SUGGESTED BET: JACK HAMMER (2) to win

RACE SEVEN

RED LUCK (5) has the tough gate to overcome and comes in off the short back-up from Fri. Buried away from inside the 2nd line 2 starts back he found the line in good order and 5 back was 7m from GET IN THE GROOVE. He can get into the contest here and sneak away with the prize.

OLIVER WINKLE (3) resumes from a spell and was last seen in January. 3 starts back he worked hard in the run when sent forward from the 2nd line and went under by 4m. The last run before going for a break was a nice effort behind CHARMS ON A ROLL and with good early speed will be in the fight.

KYMS BOY (6) will need plenty of luck from this gate as he looks likely to be buried away. He worked home strongly to score at Redcliffe 5 starts back and last start found the line strongly in a much stronger race behind PSYCHEDELIC. Just needs a gap.

RISKY BUZINESS (4) was buried away on the pegs at Tamworth last start and was too far back to challenge. He can look to roll forward to find position and handy to the speed has place claims.

SELECTIONS: RED LUCK (5), OLIVER WINKLE (3), KYMS BOY (6), RISKY BUZINESS (4)
SUGGESTED BET: RED LUCK (5) to win

RACE EIGHT

ELZBOY (1)
wasn’t suited from the tapes in the Goldstrike series and then went well below his best over the 2200m trip at his next start. With unsuitable 2nd line draws at his past 3 he gets the improved gate and can look to hold the advantage and dictate terms here. Gets every chance.

OMINOUS FLYER (6) will be further tightened now that he has started 3 times since returning from a break. 3rd from the pocket trail behind LETHAL PROMMISE when returning he worked to the front last start at Redcliffe when gunned down up the passing lane. If he sees track he is a danger.

INCITER (7) started off gate 10 last start in the same race as OMINOUS FLYER when looming up in the closing stages and getting within 5m of the win. Top 2 in each of his 5 appearances here at Marburg, he is in the mix again.

UNDERTHEKILT (3) rolled to the front over the 2040m trip at Redcliffe on Thurs and once in control fought them off to score. 1st past the post 4 starts back at Tamworth before losing the race in the stewards room, he can feature.

SELECTIONS: ELZBOY (1), OMINOUS FLYER (6), INCITER (7), UNDERTHEKILT (3)
SUGGESTED BET: ELZBOY (1) to win

RACE NINE

MASTER DIP (7)
makes his Qld debut for Ron Sallis and has been running in much stronger races than what he meets here. 4 starts back he was hitting the line well to be 9m from EFFRONTE who has since won a further two races. With the right cart into the contest he is the one to beat.
 
KATNISS (1) resumes from a break and will look to make the most of the ace gate with her good early speed. Only 1.5m from the winner when starting fav 4 starts back her next 3 have been from unsuitable draws. She is right in the mix.

JACKS AT THE BEACH (9) worked hard in the run 3 starts back and fought to the line when 7m from SUBTLE DELIGHT. He went around AP on Friday and can work into this well. He is 1 from 1 at the track.

GUTS (5) has the tricky gate to overcome and has been facing some tough gates this preparation. He worked home well at Redcliffe 2 starts back and with even luck can find the podium.

SELECTIONS: MASTER DIP (7), KATNISS (1), JACKS AT THE BEACH (9), GUTS (5)
SUGGESTED BET: