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  4. Form Analysis: Redcliffe May 30

Form Analysis: Redcliffe May 30

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

BEST BET: R5 N1 The Harlem Hammer

 

VALUE: R2 N6 Crocodile Princess

 

UTAB QUADDIE: R2-5: 3-6-9 / 3-4-5 / 1-7 / 1-7

 

 

RACE ONE

RITCHIE BEE (1)
scored his 2nd successive victory here 6 starts back and since that win has started 4 times in stronger races at AP and hasn’t had factors in his favour since. Only 5m away 3 starts back when hitting the line strongly without any luck in transit, he can make his own luck from the ace.

SHADOW HUNTER (7) made the most of conditions from gate 10 here 2 starts back and with a well-timed run finished over the top to claim victory. Forget his latest start where he struck trouble in the run, with the cosy trip he can be coiled and ready to take the closing shot.

THREE MUGS IN (8) will have early positioning options and can look for the cheap run if on offer. He will appreciate this more than the 1.52.0 rate he found last start behind VASARI and has claims.

LETHAL STAR (3) will find this a shade easier than the mares qualifiers she has met in her past 2 when finishing down the line. Winless here on the triangle, she won’t be far away in this line-up.

SELECTIONS: RITCHIE BEE (1), SHADOW HUNTER (7), THREE MUGS IN (8), LETHAL STAR (3)
SUGGESTED BET: RITCHIE BEE (1) to win

RACE TWO

A scratching last week at the Wed night meeting, TRACES OF TARA (3) makes her Qld debut for Donny Smith and will be 1st up in 8 weeks. Last sighted on Mar 30 when 6m from the winner at Bankstown, she is a mare with slick early moves and lighting the lamps can look for a debut win.

WEASEL (9) found his race last start and settling in the 1x1 in the run was able to finish over the top to claim victory over the 2280m trip. Leading them up the start prior from gate 2, he kept an even tempo and was only grabbed in the closing stages. This is a step up, yet he is right in the fight.

CROCODILE PRINCESS (6) started from the 2nd line last start at Marburg and was working home strongly wide off the track to get within a head of the winner. The wide gate makes it tricky.

SCOTT TOM (1) worked hard in the run last start outside the smart looking GOTTA MOMENT and faded under the workload. He tracked home well 2 starts back and from the gate can chime in.

SELECTIONS: TRACES OF TARA (3), WEASEL (9), CROCODILE PRINCESS (6), SCOTT TOM (1)
SUGGESTED BET: TRACES OF TARA (3) to win

RACE THREE

In a tricky contest to line them up with the 2280m distance also adding an extra layer of intrigue, I’m leaning to INCITER (4) to adapt to the conditions best. Last start over this trip he was sent to the breeze and fought hard and went within a neck of victory. He can look to out-stay them.

ALWAYS AT NIGHT (3) didn’t have much luck last start at Marburg from a wide gate when looking for position and ending up well back and then never seeing any space. He found the line in good order here 2 starts back and with even luck in transit can be around the money here.

AROONA (7) was sent forward to take control over this trip last start and went down swinging when holding on for the silver and only beaten a neck. He will be probing for openings here.

GUTS (5) didn’t have the clearest path last start when running up behind them in handy time over the AP mile. Strong from the breeze over 2138m 2 starts back when beaten 2m, he can’t be ignored.

SELECTIONS: INCITER (4), ALWAYS AT NIGHT (3), AROONA (7), GUTS (5)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE FOUR

INVITE ONLY (1)
will take good benefit from her latest outing when returning from a 6-week let-up. Taking on the 2200m trip at Marburg, she was soon locked away and then didn’t receive the cleanest passage. From the gate and back to the sprint trip she can protect the pegs to take them all the way.

ULTIMATE AD (8) made the most of gate 1 last start to dictate terms over this trip and rip home a strong closing 800m to claim a 3m victory. Only 6m in arrears 2 starts back, he charged home over the AP sprint trip 3 starts back to go under by a pimple. With positional options he can challenge.

MISTER BLACKJACK (7) took the pocket trail from gate 1 last start and may have finished closer than the 1m 2nd if sighting space when needed. He will be locked away again here and should podium.

WERELIVINGTHEDREAM (4) was snagged back from gate 4 last start over her less preferred middle- distance trip at AP and then couldn’t work into it. Grabbed late 2 starts back, she is in the mix.

SELECTIONS: INVITE ONLY (1), ULTIMATE AD (8), MISTER BLACKJACK (7), WERELIVINGTHEDREAM (4)
SUGGESTED BET: INVITE ONLY (1) to win

RACE FIVE

THE HARLEM HAMMER (1) started from inside the 2nd line here 4 starts back and securing the perfect trip was able to take the closing shot and arrive to claim victory by a neck. Her next 3 have all been at Ap and all from unsuitable wide gates. With the good alley, she gets every chance.

MISS PATRIOT (7) looked to take them all the way last start from gate 1 and leading them deep into the stretch was claimed in the closing strides after setting a strong tempo. Her run 2 back had merit after covering plenty of ground and with the right trip will be ready to strike here.

STEVIE DEE (8) can have an early look and opt for the pegs for the cheap run if available. Landing inside 2nd line gates at her past 3 starts, she can take the short-cuts to fill the podium.

PRECIOUS CULLEN (6) was sent forward from this same gate last start and was able to take control at the front and hold on for a narrow victory. This is a tougher line-up, but he is still a show.

SELECTIONS: THE HARLEM HAMMER (1), MISS PATRIOT (7), STEVIE DEE (8), PRECIOUS CULLEN (6)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-6-7-8

RACE SIX

TALENT IN SPADES (3)
showed good speed out of the machine here last start to find the pegs 1st from this same gate. Setting a steady tempo in front, she was able to hold on for the bronze, with SIGNOR JUJON swooping hard to run away with the prize. Lighting the lamps, she will be gripping on.

BONNIES CAM (4) made an error here when on debut and that ended his chances. Taken to AP he showed good early moves prior to releasing and was green when holding on for 3rd. Forget his last start when put out of business, he can put it all together here.

I AM TESSALYN (1) snagged back from gate 4 on debut and struck some handy ones when following them home. Given a let-up since that run, she will get a nice trip here and can chime in.

BETTERTHANLEGO (7) is a Betterthancheddar filly on debut for Deb Belford. She is the 4th foal out of Jenzajet and wasn’t asked for much in a recent trial when locked away. She will have early options.

SELECTIONS: TALENT IN SPADES (3), BONNIES CAM (4), I AM TESSALYN (1), BETTERTHANLEGO (7)
SUGGESTED BET: TALENT IN SPADES (3) to win

RACE SEVEN

TIC TACT (4) has been in the money at 2 of her 3 career starts including a last start 2nd here at Redcliffe. Pressing ahead from gate 6 she had a dip for the front after sitting wide for the first 600m before finding the pocket trail. With good speed off the arm, she can dictate and open her account.

WESTERN SHOWGIRL (2) is a Western Terror filly on debut for Peter Greig out of the former top race mare and good producer Impish Princess. Ranking as a half to the likes of How Will I Know and Mista Natural, she trialled nicely here on the triangle in preparation for her debut.

MISTER ARTIKULATE (3) held on to grab the bronze when on debut despite making an error in the run and then last start he again struck trouble from gate 7. He can be an improver.

HOLLIE (7) will get a soft trip from this gate and can look to chime in during the latter stages. Her effort last start was an improved effort after retreating from gate 6 and she can be thereabouts.

SELECTIONS: TIC TACT (4), WESTERN SHOWGIRL (2), MISTER ARTIKULATE (3), HOLLIE (7)
SUGGESTED BET: TIC TACT (4) to win

RACE EIGHT

SHESFEELINPRECIOUS (2)
has placed in 2 of her past 3 starts, including a 3rd here 2 starts back when starting from gate 6. This is the best gate she has seen for some time and if able to put it together can get across to the pegs and from there might just be able to hold on.

SUPREME BANNER (7) will take great benefit from his latest start when 2nd up from an 18-month break. He found the line in good order to grab the silver when 1st up over the 1780m and followed that when closing nicely to be 5m in arrears of the winner. If the luck arrives, so can he.
 
VALIANT GEM (6) isn’t afforded any favours from this alley and will need to be working at some point. Last start he rolled to the front from this gate before being grabbed late and he can place.

BEE GEES BEST (3) makes his debut for Mitchell Dawson and comes into the race with a sound trial. A gelded son of A Rocknroll Dance, he stays under notice in an open contest.

SELECTIONS: SHESFEELINPRECIOUS (2), SUPREME BANNER (7), VALIANT GEM (6), BEE GEES BEST (3)
SUGGESTED BET: