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  4. Redcliffe form analysis: Wednesday 15 November

Redcliffe form analysis: Wednesday 15 November

RACE ONE

BLACK BELT (1) started fav from inside the 2nd line last start and following the leader was able to take the passing lane to score a 2m victory. That followed 2 tidy runs at AP from wide gates and from this draw will get every chance to repeat the dose by waiting for the passing lane.

ALTANA BLUE (5) has been luckless in starting from a good barrier in recent starts having faced a string of wide gates. That didn’t stop him last week from gate 6 with the race run to suit he worked into the race strongly 3-wide and arrived in time to score. He will need a slice of luck again but can place.

MONUMENTAL (10) was 2nd up from a spell when able to use the passing lane finished best of the chasers to grab 2nd behind the 10m winner ROYAL COUNSEL. He found the line nicely at his next start when 8m from SAMS A CHAMP and on Sunday at Marburg returned a tidy effort in a track record when 14m away.

KAANAPALI (2) will take good benefit from his run last week when returning  from a 3 month break. Spearing out from gate 3 he looked to take them all the way and it was his condition that gave out with CHANG MAI taking the passing lane to score. He can get to the pegs again and will be gripping on.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1, 3
SELECTIONS: BLACK BELT (1), ALTANA BLUE (5), MONUMENTAL (10), KAANAPALI (2)
SUGGESTED BET: BLACK BELT (1) to win

RACE TWO

KETUT (1) has been runner-up at his past 3 in succession all here on the triangle. Last start from this same gate he held early before releasing the pressure and then used the passing lane when 3rd to ROYAL COUNSEL. That followed a head 2nd to MOHEGAN SUN and from the gate against this field he gets his chance to breakthrough.

ELLIOTT BROMAC (7) will be tightened from his return to the track last week following a 6 month break. Settling in the running line he made some good late metres in a strong closing 800m panel to grab the bronze. With the benefit of the gate here he will enjoy a cosy trip and can take a closing shot.

REDS JET STAR (5) was sent forward from this same gate last week over the 1780m trip and after facing the breeze throughout pulled clear as they swung for home for a commanding 12m victory. The wide gate at the 2040m start makes it a little harder, but she is racing in good touch.

YOUNG AMERICAN (6) will take benefit from his latest start which was his 1st outing for the Shane Graham yard. Buried away on the pegs he was climbing over the top of them when getting within a head and would have given it a big shake with more space. Freshened since that run, the barrier dents his chances but must still be respected.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader-tactics notified), 3, 5
SELECTIONS: KETUT (1), ELLIOTT BROMAC (7), REDS JET STAR (5), YOUNG AMERICAN (6)
SUGGESTED BET:  KETUT (1) to win

RACE THREE

PITTSWORTH MAN (9) has had a spaced campaign and will line up for the first time since Oct 4. Finding the front from gate 2 in that event he was able to control the tempo and take them all the way. That followed a head 2nd and although the 2nd line makes it tricky, with some tempo off the front he can finish strongly.

NICE ONE JON (8) made the most of his front line draw last start when stating off the front for just the 2nd time in his career. Finding the front he took control of the race and held on for a half-neck victory. Back to the 2nd line again he follows out a good beginner and should be able to settle close to the speed and will be right in the mix.

MY MOJO (6) has the wide gate to overcome, but from any other gate off the front he would probably go close to being the clear top pick. Given a freshen since his latest start when beaten 8m behind SHARDONS SHERALEE, his previous run was when 11m to the handy CATCH THE BREEZE. His record on the triangle is strong and he can feature with the right run.

HOT ROD HEAVEN (1) was a winner here 3 starts back when finishing best from gate 5 to take the win. He followed that with a tough run when facing the breeze and returned a tidy effort behind the in-form REAL KNUCKY. Luckless last start when buried away, from the ace gate he will have options and is a danger in this.

EARLY SPEED: 1, 2, 3,4
SELECTIONS: PITTSWORTH MAN (9), NICE ONE JON (8), MY MOJO (6), HOT ROD HEAVEN (1)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-6-8-9

RACE FOUR

UNCLE JOHN (1) should take good confidence from his win last start which broke a run of outs. Making a 3-wide move from a 2nd line draw he finished best to take a 3m victory. He gets the improved gate where he can hold the front and look to dictate terms.

RUBYS BAD BOY (4) was a Sat night winner in claiming company last start when settling in the pocket trail and using the passing lane to score over the 2138m trip. Last week from gate 5 he went back at the start and was attacking the line late to get within 2m of victory. If he doesn’t get too far back he can feature again.

GALLYMONT SPORT (3) will take some benefit from his latest start which was his first run in 8 weeks. Settling in the running line from fate 4 he was looking to make late ground when finishing well covered behind UNCLE JOHN. From this gate he can settle handy and return a sharper result.

ONE TO TANGO (7) settled in the running line last start when hitting the line nicely after starting from the 2nd line and only beaten 3m behind BLACK BELT. Luckless 2 starts back, she had met some stronger races at AP prior to that and with the cosy trip here must be included in the exotics.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2, 3
SELECTIONS: UNCLE JOHN (1), RUBYS BAD BOY (4), GALLYMONT SPORT (3), ONE TO TANGO (7)
SUGGESTED BET: UNCLE JOHN (1) to win

RACE FIVE

MIRACLESDOAPPEN (1) started fav here last start over this trip off gate 3 where she was looking to work forward but couldn’t get to the pegs and was forced to work had in the run. Her effort was still solid when 8m from ALTANA BLUE. That followed two wins and two 2nds in her previous 4 starts and from this gate she can go all the way.

MAKE A POINT (7) was a winner here 5 starts back when working hard in the run and proving too strong to score a tough win. Since that win his next 4 have been from 2nd line draws twice and from gate 6 twice and in each of those his efforts had merit. He should get the cosy trip from this draw and be ready to strike.

COTTON COLD CANDY (8) has been runner-up at her past 3 starts here on the triangle, the most recent when beaten a nose behind LUCIFERS LEGEND. A career best win at AP 4 starts back she resumes from a spell in this and can drop down to the pegs early for the cheap run and be looking to swoop late.

ONE LAST ROLL (3) worked home from a long way back in the pack here 2 starts back and was hitting the line strongly in the latter stages to get within 8m of the winner OUR BUSCEMI. Sent forward from gate 9 last start he worked hard in the run when holding 3rd and from the improved gate can get amongst the action.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 3, 4, 6
SELECTIONS: MIRACLESDOAPPEN (1), MAKE A POINT (7), COTTON COLD CANDY (8), ONE LAST ROLL (3)
SUGGESTED BET: MIRACLESDOAPPEN (1) to win

RACE SIX

SPLASH OF GOLD (2) has been no further back than 4th in 6 runs since resuming from a spell with the last 3 finishing no further than 3.5m from the winner. 3 starts back she hit the line in good order to grab the silver behind ARCH EMPRESS followed that with a 3rd to LUVU GRAZAELLA and from this gate will get her chance.

ROCKNROLL AMBER (9) has been in great form in recent starts without landing a winning blow. Starting from gate 10 last start she was working home from well back when only going under a head. That followed a nice 3rd from gate 7 when sent forward to lead them over the 2138m with PARK LIFE getting the better of her. She is right in the fight.

SOI COWBOY (8) started fav last start from gate 2 but was unable to cross BONNIES A BEAUTY in gate 1 who led throughout. Forced to face the breeze he dug in for the fight to go under by 1.5m. Finishing within 5m of PARK LIFE when buried away 2 starts back he can get a nice trail through at the start and will be in the mix.

FLIPPA PENNY (1) started in red figures here 2 starts back from gate 2 and after being crossed early worked in the breeze to finish a 5m 3rd. Last start she was buried away from an inside 2nd line draw and never factored. With the cosy trip here she can return a sharper effort.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 3
SELECTIONS: SPLASH OF GOLD (2), ROCKNROLL AMBER (9), SOI COWBOY (8), FLIPPA PENNY (1)
SUGGESTED BET: SPLASH OF GOLD (2) to win

RACE SEVEN

MISTER HART (2) will strip fitter following the 1st run for his 4YO season here last week. Closing out his 3YO term in the Triad Final where he found them too strong, he returned to the track in a good performance when beaten a half-head in a blanket finish after forcing his way to the front from gate 4. Taken straight to the front here he can dictate.

SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (8) stepped out for new trainer Greg Franklin last week at a non-TAB event when returning from a 6-month break. Working away from the pegs early he closed out the race nicely from the running line to post a 4m victory. He can follow through at the start to settle close and can threaten.
 
CHEYENNE WARRIOR (3) is never far from the action in these type of races and lands a good gate to get in the action. Last start from inside the 2nd line he grabbed the silver behind the smart looking SHADOW PASS, beaten 3m. His previous 3 starts have been in stronger company and he can podium from this gate.
 
I AM ANDY (1) started from this same gate last start and after holding the early advantage, released the speed to take the pocket trail and then held on for 3rd to HEEZ PERFECT. He wasn’t suited from a 2nd line gate 2 starts back and with the benefit of the ace gate can feature in the minors.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1, 3
SELECTIONS: MISTER HART (2), SOMEPARTYSOMEWHERE (8), CHEYENNE WARRIOR (3), I AM ANDY (1)
SUGGESTED BET: MISTER HART (2) to win

RACE EIGHT

DONT ARK WITH ME (1) was looking to work home wide off the track last start after starting from the 2nd line but was unable to work to eat into the leaders advantage. 2 starts back she was forced to work in the run when grabbing 4th while 4 starts back she was 2nd after landing the pocket trail. From this gate will have the options and has found a winnable race.

MINI MIRACLE (3) was luckless last start from gate 6 after striking trouble and put out of play. That followed an error when finishing well down the line behind PARK LIFE. With the added fitness and an improved gate, she can be an improver.

ALWAYS A JEWEL (6) was taken back from gate 5 last start and found herself too far back to issue a challenge when the pace went on. That followed a 3rd to AARCADO where she copped a bump on the home turn and was closing nicely in the latter stages. Despite the wide gate she has podium claims.

STYLISH FEELING (2) went back from gate 5 last start and found herself buried on the pegs when well covered behind BONNIES A BEAUTY. That followed a tidy run from a 2nd line gate and from an improved draw she can look to take an early shot for the front and will get her chance.

EARLY SPEED: 2, 1 , 4, 3
SELECTIONS: DONT ARK WITH ME (1), MINI MIRACLE (3), ALWAYS A JEWEL (6), STYLISH FEELING (2)
SUGGESTED BET: DONT ARK WITH ME (1) to win