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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Nov 30

Form Analysis: Albion Park Nov 30

RACE ONE

BALLYMORE BOY (8)
will appreciate this class of opponent after meeting stronger types in recent outings. At his AP debut here on Tues he did some early work before finding the line strongly to get within 1.5m of the winner ILLAWONG DREAMTIME. As the sole 2nd line runner the options suit.

CHIRPY CHUCKLES (2) sat in the pocket trail last start after working across from gate 4 and chased gamely behind the in-form PATERNITY SUIT. That was a nice turn-a-around after doing too much work in the run the start prior and taking the 1st shot here will be in the perfect positon.

FIRE AND ICE (4) covered plenty of extra track last start when boxing on gamely over the Redcliffe 2040m trip. Luckless the start prior off the 2nd line and wide, he will appreciate this.

BROADWATER (1) started from gate 10 last start at Redcliffe and was trying to work home in the closing stages behind SOLDIER OF FORTUNE. Being covered in the run may not be ideal.

SELECTIONS: BALLYMORE BOY (8), CHIRPY CHUCKLES (2), FIRE AND ICE (4), BROADWATER (1)
SUGGESTED BET: BALLYMORE BOY (8) to win

RACE TWO

FEEL THE CHARM (1) was a Redcliffe winner when leading all the way from gate 1 over the 1780m trip 4 starts back. Not suited in her 3 runs since that win when having to work in the run on each occasion she will appreciate the ace gate here and can look to dictate.

CAESARS ASTRUM (8) will be glued to the back of the 1 every step and be ready to take her shot when the gaps appear in the stretch. Taken back to find cover from gate 4 last start, she was facing a task with the leader and winner OPONONIS BLISS dealing in front. Can challenge late.

JOHNNYCAKE (5) worked home in good order to get within a half-neck of the winner here 4 starts back and then hasn’t really had conditions to suit since. Finding early position he has place hopes.

GOOD BOY OLIVER (7) worked to the front last start and was gripping on when 3rd to TOOK YOUR TIME. Featuring in a stable switch since that run, he lines up for Chantal Turpin and can place.

SELECTIONS: FEEL THE CHARM (1), CAESARS ASTRUM (8), JOHNNYCAKE (5), GOOD BOY OLIVER (7)
SUGGESTED BET: FEEL THE CHARM (1) to win

RACE THREE

NEEDLE (11) has returned from a break in fine fettle and will get back behind the tapes for the first time this campaign. Returning with a solid 2nd from gate 7 over the mile she then fought all the way when beaten a half-head in a Redcliffe track record with OUR OVERANOVA taking the spoils. 10m looks a nice mark and she can capitalise.

MONARO MIA (6) arrives in Qld a last start Menangle winner after claiming a 2300m event when leading throughout and running a smart closing 800m. Yet to face the tapes in Aus, she is a 4 time winner from 7 attempts in NZ and with a safe beginning will be right in the action here.

LAVROS TEXAS (5) will be further tightened from his latest outing when settling in the trail over the mobile 2138m trip and holding 2nd behind OUR OVERANOVA. Safe from the strands he can throw down a challenge.

ULTIMATE DAIQUIRI (2) rises in class somewhat for this however has been racing well from big handicaps. She chased gamely last start behind NORTHERN MUSCLE and returning to the front will help.

SELECTIONS: NEEDLE (11), MONARO MIA (6), LAVROS TEXAS (5), ULTIMATE DAIQUIRI (2)
SUGGESTED BET: NEEDLE (11) to win

RACE FOUR

EXCEPTIONAL MACH (7)
worked to the front over the 1780m trip at Redcliffe last start and once in control never looked in danger to score by 6m. That followed a tidy effort when 2nd to IMA MORVEN LAD and with blazing gate speed can be set alight and finding the pegs can look to fight them off.

COMPLY OR DIE (8) was able to score a rare win from back in the pack last start with the majority of his 31 career victories coming from the front end. Buried on the pegs he kept chasing and arrived to score a 2m victory. With the early options from the gate he can look to repeat the win.

OUR MELS DREAM (6) was working home wide off the track last start and hit the line in good order when 2nd to COMPLY OR DIE. He looks set to work at some point in the run and place claims appeal.

CLASSY GUY (3) found the line in good style to score a Redcliffe sprint win 3 starts back and then cracked when in front at his next start. Put a line through the latest offering and he can atone in this.

SELECTIONS: EXCEPTIONAL MACH (7), COMPLY OR DIE (8), OUR MELS DREAM (6), CLASSY GUY (3)
SUGGESTED BET: EXCEPTIONAL MACH (7) to win

RACE FIVE

SPUD (11) will take good benefit from his latest start when 1st up from a break and taking on the 2138m mobile. From inside the 2nd line he was buried in the run when solid to the line behind OUR OVERANOVA. Working in the run here 2 starts back the effort was solid and from 10m looms as a big threat.

KYVALLEY BOOMERANG (2) will be having his 3rd start since joining the Craig Cross team with his past 2 runs over the Menangle 2300m showing he can mix it with them here. Working to the front after starting from 30m 2 starts back he was strong to the line to score. If finding the pegs he might take some catching.

OUR OVERANOVA (13) looms up for the 8th hat-trick of his career that has returned an amazing 41 wins. Claiming this series in 2014 off a 30m mark and then last year off 40m, he looks well placed from the 45m. His past 2 wins have been top runs and he is always a threat.

EMPIRE BAY (12) started off a front tape last start and chased home nicely when 8m from the winner IONA GRINNER. With his previous 2 behind the ID contender KOWHAI MONARCH, he can feature in this series.

SELECTIONS: SPUD (11), KYVALLEY BOOMERANG (2), OUR OVERANOVA (13), EMPIRE BAY (12)
SUGGESTED BET: SPUD (11) to win

RACE SIX

MY MAGIC MERLIN (3)
is knocking on the door for a win after finishing runner-up in 3 of his past 4 starts. Last start from gate 6 he faced the breeze outside leader and winner OOZINVILLE which followed a passing lane 2nd behind MAJOR SEASCAPE. He can force the issue here and claim the win.

MONTANA EXPRESS (12) shoots for a hat-trick of victories as he looks for his 1st win at AP. Taking plenty of time to put it all together, he was too strong to break his maiden 2 starts back when tracking home wide out and backed that up with a strong win last start. He is looming large here.

LETS DIG IT (4) went straight to the front from gate 4 last start at Redcliffe to dictate from the front and score a 7m victory as a red figure fav. That followed a tough 3rd and he won’t be far away at his 1st look at AP.

TORQUE FEELS GOOD (1) will strip fitter after a 1st up 3rd saw he banished to two trials for making an error. Trialling in good order for the return, from the ace gate she can get a cosy trip and find the podium.

SELECTIONS: MY MAGIC MERLIN (3), MONTANA EXPRESS (12), LETS DIG IT (4), TORQUE FEELS GOOD (1)
SUGGESTED BET: MY MAGIC MERLIN (3) to win

RACE SEVEN

MOTU REAL STYLE (4) was forced to work triple time last start from the 2nd line when sent around the field early to the breeze. Doing plenty of work she faded out in the closing stages. That followed a tough 3rd from the 2nd line and 3 back she scored a good win. Sent forward she can look to dictate.

NEWPORT DREAMZ (8) will need plenty of luck from this gate but with plenty of early tempo, the field must just open enough for him to get away from the pegs. After successive Redcliffe wins when leading throughout in each, he hasn’t been suited from the 2nd line his past 2. This is easier and just needs some space.

IM FREE FALLING (2) is knocking on the door and last start looked to have it in the bag until he was grabbed up the passing lane. With good early speed he can fire an early shot and is in the mix.

TASSINI (5) was tough from the breeze to score victory over the 2040m trip 3 starts back and then last start was charging late after snagging back early. With even luck she can feature.

SELECTIONS: MOTU REAL STYLE (4), NEWPORT DREAMZ (8), IM FREE FALLING (2), TASSINI (5)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE EIGHT

PAY ME INTEREST (3)
finished off strongly to claim a 1780m Redcliffe win 4 starts back when starting from gate 5 and followed that with a 5m 3rd behind NOVENA ROSE. Too far back behind PATERNITY SUIT she was again too far back last start in a strong mares race. From an improved gate she can look to cash-in.

SPRINGFIELD SPIRIT (9) shoots for the hat-trick after wins at Redcliffe and then Marburg. The Marburg win was a tidy effort when working home strongly wide off the track and the start prior he nabbed IM FREE FALLING on the line. With the right early trail he can make start 100 memorable.

FEEL THE REIGN (4) added another minor to the tally last start to make it a top 3 in 12 of his past 13 starts. Using the passing lane he went within a half-head of victory which followed a neck 2nd to MACH SAM. Will be right in the mix.

ONLY ONE PROMISE (7) has no favours from this gate but finding early position without working too hard he can look to feature. A Redcliffe winner 2 starts back, his last run was strong after working and he has podium claims.

SELECTIONS: PAY ME INTEREST (3), SPRINGFIELD SPIRIT (9), FEEL THE REIGN (4), ONLY ONE PROMISE (7)
SUGGESTED BET: PAY ME INTEREST (3) to win

RACE NINE

JOSSIE JAMES (11)
will be tightened from her latest run when 1st up from a break and starting from gate 10 over the Redcliffe 2040m trip. Working home wide off the track she arrived with a wet-sail to go straight past them and claim a 13m victory. This is tougher but with some early tempo she can swoop late.

SKYFELLA CAM (10) had been doing a fair job and then last start was sent to the breeze early from the 2nd line and then packed too many guns to score. Only beaten a half-neck 2 starts back, he is versatile and might look to get around them cheaply if the pace slackens and be fighting hard.

TOOK YOUR TIME (1) had the speed to find the pegs from gate 3 at Redcliffe 2 starts back and taking control was never in danger in scoring a narrow victory. From the gate and with the options he is in the fight.

LENNY THE LEGEND (5) will need a few factors to go his way here and will be hoping to find position without getting too far back in the pack. With a strong closing sprint, look for him closing out strongly.

SELECTIONS: JOSSIE JAMES (11), SKYFELLA CAM (10), TOOK YOUR TIME (1), LENNY THE LEGEND (5)
SUGGESTED BET: JOSSIE JAMES (11) to win