1. Home
  2. News & Guides
  3. December 2019
  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Dec 21

Form Analysis: Albion Park Dec 21

tex

 RACE ONE

FEEL THE REIGN (2) has been going well without really getting the reward for his efforts of late. It didn’t go to plan last week when unable to find forward position he was forced to retreat and the start prior from gate 11 was stuck in traffic yet fought on well for 3rd. He can fire the early shots.

HARD TO HEAR (9) is knocking on the door and despite the 2nd line gate can get a nice early trail to settle handy. From gate 10 last start he really attacked the line strongly to go within a pimple of COREY WILLIAM which followed a completely luckless run the start prior. This is within reach.

THATS HOW WEROLL (5) pressed forward to find the breeze lats start and with that not really his preferred pattern, he did well under the circumstances. If he can find cheap position, he can swoop.

COREY WILLIAM (4) pressed on form gate 7 to find the front last start over the 2138m and once in control held on to claim a narrow victory. Fitter again after 3 runs back, he is right in the fight here.

SELECTIONS: FEEL THE REIGN (2), HARD TO HEAR (9), THATS HOW WEROLL (5), COREY WILLIAM (4)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE TWO

TIN ROOF RAIDER (2) was beaten by gate 7 last week when snagging all the way back to a long last before attacking the line with gusto to grab the silver when 5m in arrears of the winner DANCE FOR GLORY. Racing tough in the breeze 3 starts back when only 3m away, he can capitalise here.

JUMPING JOLT (10) had an early look here on Tues before finding cover and chiming in late to grab the bronze. Making ground from back in the pack his previous 2 starts, he can look to capitalise of what looks a hot tempo here and be swooping home hard in the latter stages.

CHARMING MAJOR (4) pushed through from the 2nd line over the 2138m here 2 starts back and was able to take control and once in front scored a big win. Losing momentum when needed last start, he can feature here.

OYSTER STRIDE (1) went to the pegs from the 2nd line last start to look for the short-cuts when 3m away in 3rd. He steps up here but with the peg-line benefits from the ace, can fill a minor.

SELECTIONS: TIN ROOF RAIDER (2), JUMPING JOLT (10), CHARMING MAJOR (4), OYSTER STRIDE (1)
SUGGESTED BET: TIN ROOF RAIDER (2) to win

RACE THREE

KETUT (1) is best served when saved for the last shot and effective along the passing lane, will be in the perfect position to strike late here. Taking out a Band 5 race 2 starts back when swooping on bye at Redcliffe and posting a 9m margin, he will be smoking the briar waiting for the gap to arrive here.

BIG BANG LEONARD (9) was a tragedy beaten last start after making an error in the run and still only falling 2m short of the win. Banished to the trials, he has earnt the ticket back with a slick hit-out at Redcliffe posting a big margin. Securing the right trail here and back to claiming grade looks ideal.

COMPLY OR DIE (3) returned to winning form last start when using the passing lane to arrive for a 5m victory. Forced to work in the breeze the start prior, he can fire the 1st shot and be gripping on.

MAKE MINE JOE (2) wasn’t really suited from the 2nd line 2 starts back and then last start was forced to race tough over the Redcliffe sprint trip. Limiting the early workload here can see him feature.

SELECTIONS: KETUT (1), BIG BANG LEONARD (9), COMPLY OR DIE (3), MAKE MINE JOE (2)
SUGGESTED BET: KETUT (1) to win

RACE FOUR

The inaugural running of the Bill Dixon will see the Dixon stable with a four-prong attack where they are every chance of filling the trifecta. GOVERNOR JUJON (9) will take great benefit from his return victory over the 2138m last start when showing a sharp closing sprint for a smart win. He will need to be good to take this, but he displayed how classy he is last time.

VIRGIL (1) gets the advantage to turn the tables on his stable-mate from their meeting in the Members Cup when GOVERNOR JUJON eased off his back and had too many bullets to fire. He will take good benefit from his 1st up Qld outing in that and with further acclimatisation will give them something to chase here.

MUCH BETTOR (10) fired out from gate 6 to take them all the way over the 2138m here 2 starts back and then last start was too far back against the tempo to take ground off the winner. The pegs might be on offer here and that can be the right place to take the short-cuts home.

WE SALUTE YOU (5) has placed in all 3 starts this season the latest when he loomed up to take the win, only to be collared on the wire. If he can position cheaply, he has the closing power to chime in.

SELECTIONS: GOVERNOR JUJON (9), VIRGIL (1), MUCH BETTOR (10), WE SALUTE YOU (5)
SUGGESTED BET: GOVERNOR JUJON (9) to win

RACE FIVE

CHERRYS THE BEST (3) took on a mares qualifier over this trip last start when landing gate 10. With the tempo set up for those on the speed, she was facing a task to work into the contest when 9m in arrears. A smart winner when working in the run the start prior, she can look to capitalise.

ALE ALE KAI (10) found the 1x1 trail last start and when asked for an effort in the stretch, was hitting the line in nice style to grab the bronze. On Wed night in the Redcliffe Christmas Cup, she was really attacking the line hard to finish 3rd to ALWAYS IN COMMAND. Back to mares only, she is right in this.

MY DESIGN (5) was slammed with gat 11 last week at her Qld debut. Settling mid-field in the run over the 2138m, she was hitting the line with strong momentum to be 4m from the winner. Finding close position will be key to her chances against these.

BETTOR BECAUSE (1) grabbed the bronze in one of these mares qualifiers 3 starts back when using the passing lane. Last start she really hit the line with vigour over the 2138m and can feature here.
 

SELECTIONS: CHERRYS THE BEST (3), ALE ALE KAI (10), MY DESIGN (5), BETTOR BECAUSE (1)
SUGGESTED BET: CHERRYS THE BEST (3) to win

RACE SIX

BAD BILLY (1) eased back from gate 5 last start in the Christmas Cup and settled back in the field as a sharp tempo was carved out up front. Finding open space, he savaged the line to arrive for the victory. Not far away 3 starts back at Menangle, he was then luckless over the sprint trip here at his Qld debut in the Be Good Johnny. With the soft trip if he has momentum to the lane, he can prevail.

COLT THIRTY ONE (6) was somewhat a surprise acceptor for this race, lining up after arriving back in Aus mid-week following a luckless Auckland Inter Dominion campaign. Not beaten far in the 3rd round of heats, he again wasn’t far away in the consolation. It will take a special effort to claim successive Qld Cups after what he has been through the past fortnight, is he up to it?

GLENFERRIE HOOD (2) was only 2m in arrears last time out in the Christmas Cup in what was a much sharper effort than his previous couple. He lands the gate to utilise his early speed and taking control here will look to fight them off.

MATTGREGOR (7) hustled hard to protect the poles in the Be Good Johnny last start and once in control was able to see it out for a narrow victory. The gate gives him no favours here, but he can’t be dismissed.

SELECTIONS: BAD BILLY (1), COLT THIRTY ONE (6), GLENFERRIE HOOD (2), MATTGREGOR (7)
SUGGESTED BET: BAD BILLY (1) to win

RACE SEVEN

CLARRY (4) eased back from gate 5 last start over the 2138m and just lost some balance on the home turn which possibly cost him victory. Once he balanced up, he was hitting the line with power to be 1.5m from the winner. Closing hard the start prior over the mile, he can get forward and looks hard to stop.

WHISKEY BLAZE (2) settled in the 1x1 last start in the Christmas Cup and on the home, turn looked like he was going to swoop home to the prize. Just losing his power in the stretch, he was collared to be 4m in arrears of the winner BAD BILLY. He can settle handy to the speed here to challenge late.

INVINCIBLE LOXTON (1) is not at his best off gate 1, but will enjoy an easy trip here. Only 5m away last start as the field hit the line in a bunch, he won’t be far away from them here.

JUSTALITTLE TORQUE (6) was game in defeat in the Forever Gold mares race last week after spearing out from gate 6 and setting the tempo when only 3m off the prize. She has podium claims.

SELECTIONS: CLARRY (4), WHISKEY BLAZE (2), INVINCIBLE LOXTON (1), JUSTALITTLE TORQUE (6)
SUGGESTED BET: CLARRY (4) to win

RACE EIGHT

What a cracking Final for the DJA to be held at G1 level for the first time. With 6 heats over the past 2 weekends, NORTHERN MUSCLE (13) has progressed through the series nicely and will be further screwed down for this final. He was mighty impressive in taking out his 2nd round heat, finding the line in good style. Securing the right cart into the contest, he can arrive for the big prize.

OUR OVERANOVA (15) has a wonderful record here at The Creek and last week was closing out strongly but had to share the prize in a dead-heat result. He was starting to wind up in the 1st round heats as they drew down to the wire and beaten 2m. The 40m is no barrier for him and he is arguably better form than winning this race from this same impost 2 years ago.

EMPIRE BAY (14) was looking to complete a hat-trick of victories last start when making an error when looming into it. Still able to really catch the eye with his finishing power, he can look to atone for that error in the best way possible. When he makes his run is the big query
.
ANY OLD WAY (6) threw in a few funky steps soon after what looked a good beginning but reset and found the leaders back in the 1st round heats and was then nursed to the line to grab the silver. 2nd up in the 2nd round he was only 2m away and he can chime in as could MAJESTIC SIMON (7) who was a dead-heat winner with OUR OVERANOVA last week, GEE UP NEDDY (9) who just found it a bit tough last start and QUIETLY SPOKEN (10) who will be trying to weave a passage.
 

SELECTIONS: NORTHERN MUSCLE (13), ANY OLD WAY (6), OUR OVERANOVA (15), EMPIRE BAY (14)
SUGGESTED BET: NORTHERN MUSCLE (13) to win

RACE NINE

CLINTAL DO (9) will take his place here if he misses a Qld Cup start and despite the 2nd line can use his closing speed to arrive. He was sent forward in the Christmas Cup last week over the long trip and fired right up, beating himself by getting too keen. His runs have been good since winning a FFA 4 starts back and he can atone for the G2 disappointment with a victory here.

SQUIRE (8) worked across from gate 6 last start to take up the running over the 2138m and after a steady opening 800m of the last mile, looked to ramp it up, only to be grabbed late, beaten 4m. Not suited when breezing the start prior also from 6, he can be coiled in the snipers seat ready to fire.

INNOCENT CROCKER (2) will strip fitter after her 2nd up run last week in the Forever Gold mares. Doing some early work to find position, she then was momentarily baulked when needing space. She can chime in here.

SPIKE BROMAC (1) was sharper last start, holding on for the bronze after setting the tempo of a 1.53.1 mile. With electric early moves, he can take control and be trying to fight them off late.

SELECTIONS: CLINTAL DO (9), SQUIRE (8), INNOCENT CROCKER (2), SPIKE BROMAC (1)
SUGGESTED BET: CLINTAL DO (9) to win

RACE TEN
An intriguing contest to close out the night where RUN BOY RUN (4) might be able settle close enough to what looks a hot tempo to finish over the top. He had been crying out to land a gate and last week he capitalised from the ace in a 15m victory. Forced to race tough the start prior, he can go back-to-back.

ZAHVEN BANNER (5) loves to free-wheel and last start was three-wide the last 1200m and with a 55.9 middle half felt the burn in the closing stages. That had followed successive wins from in front and the breeze and from either of those positions in the run here, will prove hard to stop.

DANCE FOR GLORY (8) kicked up to keep ZAHVEN BANNER wide 2 starts back and only faded the closing stages after a tough run in the chair. Proving his power again from that same position last start in winning, he will be chasing here, but can chime in.

CHAPTER ONE (1) does his best work in front and from the gate over the sprint has the conditions to suit. He hasn’t had the draw to lead in recent starts but will be much sharper from the ace.

SELECTIONS: RUN BOY RUN (4), ZAHVEN BANNER (5), DANCE FOR GLORY (8), CHAPTER ONE (1)
SUGGESTED BET: RUN BOY RUN (4) to win