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  4. Form Analysis: Marburg Dec 08

Form Analysis: Marburg Dec 08

RACE ONE

BRIAN WHO (7) has not been seen this season and lines up here for the 1st time as a 5YO. Last start he took on a 2nd division qualifier where he did his share of work in the run when 7m from the winner. With a tidy trial to open the pipes in readiness for the return, he can strike fresh.

MISTER DECORUM (3) was a winner here 5 starts back when rolling forward to the breeze and in for the grind was able to prove too strong. Placed at his past 2 starts, the latest when grabbed in the closing stages after leading from gate 5 at Redcliffe, he can get forward here to prove the test.

GIVE ME FIFTY (2) found the 1x1 trail over the Redcliffe 2040m last start and was making a closing play when beaten a head. The gate helps his chances and he can be around the money.

MY ULTIMATE HELL (1) was buried 3 back from gate 1 at AP last start and found them too slippery when down the line. Back to Marburg from this gate is more suitable and he is one for the exotics.

SELECTIONS: BRIAN WHO (7), MISTER DECORUM (3), GIVE ME FIFTY (2), MY ULTIMATE HELL (1)
SUGGESTED BET: BRIAN WHO (7) to win

RACE TWO

SCHOOBY (4) speared out from this same gate 2 starts back and running a steady tempo couldn’t see it out. Last start at Redcliffe he went to the pegs from gate 9 looking for short-cuts to finish mid-field. The small and inexperienced field can work to his advantage here and he can open his account.

GIDUP DARCY (6) returns from a spell to start his 3YO term after a 3 starts 2YO term that netted a 2nd on debut. Finding the front last time out from gate 6 over the AP sprint, the 28 sec opener proved too costly after a 28.1 3rd panel. With a steady trial to prepare, he is the danger.

TULLI BEE (3) sat in the breeze here 2 starts back and was game in defeat when claiming the silver, 3m on arrears of the winner MARTHS VINEYARD. From the gate she can be in the mix.

SELECTIONS: SCHOOBY (4), GIDUP DARCY (6), TULLI BEE (3)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE THREE

SOMEHOWSOMEWAY (3) started from the 2nd line here 2 starts back and settling back in the running line was closing out in good order to grab the silver behind CHEYENNE AUTUMN. Meeting a stronger line-up at AP last start from gate 7, he found them a bit out of reach. This looks suitable.

MHAI UPTOWN GIRL (7) will make her 1st appearance in Aus for the Ben Aldons barn. The 5YO mare arrives a two-time winner in NZ and will come into this without a public trial to prepare. Last race at Cambridge back on Nov 5, it was a tidy effort in good time and she stays under notice here.

PRIVATE JUJON (4) sat back in the pack at Redcliffe last start from a 2n line gate and when asked to sprint hard up the stretch, arrived right on the line to score. Yet to win in 10 starts here at Marburg, he can go close in this.

VILLAGE CRUISER (5) started fav last time out at Redcliffe from gate 5 but never had any luck, caught wide looking for position and then forced to snag back. With a solid record here, he can feature.

SELECTIONS: SOMEHOWSOMEWAY (3), MHAI UPTOWN GIRL (7), PRIVATE JUJON (4), VILLAGE CRUISER (5)
SUGGESTED BET: SOMEHOWSOMEWAY (3) to win

RACE FOUR

IFYOUBELIEVE (1)
couldn’t get across to the pegs here 3 starts back and fighting hard from the breeze was only 1.5m in arrears of the winner. Starting fav at his next run when forced to cover plenty of the track, he still fought hard. Only 2m away at AP last start, he looks tough to crack here.

CHEYENNE AUTUMN (7) was a winner here 3 starts back when pressing forward from gate 4 and working to the front. Once in control she had too many arrows at her disposal to hit the board with a 2m victory. Placed in both runs since, she can get the right trip here to throw down a challenge.

COUNTRY RUN (9) backs up from Thurs where he sat in the breeze and after putting the leader away looked to have it in the bag, only to be nutted on the wire. At his 1st look at Marburg, he has claims.

LIVING FREE (6) did the hard yards outside the leader last start and after the tough run faded in the closing stages. With a cheap run on offer, he can be probing for an opening to offer.

SELECTIONS: IFYOUBELIEVE (1), CHEYENNE AUTUMN (7), COUNTRY RUN (9), LIVING FREE (6)
SUGGESTED BET: IFYOUBELIEVE (1) to win

RACE FIVE

BETTOR WATCH HIM (3) is better suited when able to roll forward and from gate 3 he will get that opportunity here. 3 starts back at Redcliffe he made the most of lighting the lamps to take them all the way over the 2040m. Only 4m away at his next run from the 2nd line, he can make the most of this.

REDDY FIRE (1) led them up last start at Redcliffe over the 2040m and under siege at the 400m rolled up the track to let the winner through before fading out to finish down the line. 2nd here 2 starts back when letting the winner go to the front, he will be right in the mix.
 
OUR FRIEND (7) makes his Aus debut for John Stariha and arrives a last start 2nd at Kaikoura and a winner of 3 races in his career. With the right early trail, he stays under notice against these.

MY WINGMAN (6) led them up last start from gate 1 in an Aspirational at AP over the mile, but just found them a little sharper when fading in the stretch. With a soft run in transit, he will be searching for an exit.

SELECTIONS: BETTOR WATCH HIM (3), REDDY FIRE (1), OUR FRIEND (7), MY WINGMAN (6)
SUGGESTED BET: BETTOR WATCH HIM (3) to win

RACE SIX

GUTS (1) did some early work from gate 3 last start before cover arrived and he was sound to the line although officially last behind SEA HAWKE. Wide off the track here 2 starts back when trying to work into it, he is best suited if able to dictate and from the ace will get every chance to in this.

TRENT FROM PUNCHY (6) has placed at his past 2 starts, the latest when working home in nice order at Redcliffe to grab the bronze behind GRIZZLY MONTANA. Placed in all 3 appearances here at Marburg, he will be coiled in the trail here and searching for the gap to take the closing shot.

RAGING INFERNO (7) has been around the Burg on 6 occasions for a win and been the runner-up in 4 others. Despite the 2nd line he should find this easier than recent starts and he can challenge.

FORTES IN FIDE (2) started from gate 4 over the Redcliffe 2040m last start when finishing 9m from the winner BETTING BARON. Gunned down over the 2200m here 2 starts back when leading, he can podium in this.

SELECTIONS: GUTS (1), TRENT FROM PUNCHY (6), RAGING INFERNO (7), FORTES IN FIDE (2)
SUGGESTED BET: GUTS (1) to win

RACE SEVEN

CAESARS ASTRUM (2) might have some plain numbers next to her name, but the effort has been there and things haven’t really gone to plan. Forced to cut the breeze from gate 4 over the AP 2138m last start, she faded late behind MUCH BETTOR. Lighting the lamps, she can give this a shake.

MONTANA CHIEF (7) should find this a shade or 2 below his recent assignments, the latest when trying to chase the power running ZAHVEN BANNER. Luckless on the pegs when searching for space that didn’t arrive, he is 2 from 3 at this venue and with the right early trail can loom ominously.

SPEECHCRAFT (4) was a Redcliffe winner 3 starts back, followed that with a silver here and then on Thurs was gunned down after leading in a re-run at Redcliffe after the 1st attempt of the race was abandoned after 700m. He won’t be far away.

TEARAWAY DIAMOND (8) backs up from Friday at AP where he had a tough gate to overcome. Wide and working here 2 starts back, with a cart into the contest he can make a play for the exotics.

SELECTIONS: CAESARS ASTRUM (2), MONTANA CHIEF (7), SPEECHCRAFT (4), TEARAWAY DIAMOND (8)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 2-4-7-8

RACE EIGHT

He will be locked away and need his share of luck with no passing lane here at the Burg, but if he does happen to see some space, TAKITIMU EXPRESS (6) can make the closing shot a winning one. Luckless here 2 starts back when the gap never arrived, he grabbed the bronze last start at Redcliffe. It will be a test of the nerves from this alley.

TOPNOTCH MACH (1) looked to take them all the way from the ace last start over the Redcliffe sprint trip. Keeping the speed on, he was under siege but continued to fight to finish 3m from the winner. From the gate he will be gripping on again here.
 
RETURN ACE (4) eased back from this gate last start and was closing out nicely to be 4m from the winner RIVERLEIGH JEFF. Buried away on the pegs the starts prior, he won’t be too far away again.

WEE JIMMY (8) found the 1x1 trail at Redcliffe last start and with the race run in even panels, was able to cruise home to a smart 10m victory. The gate hurts but he can be thereabouts again here.

SELECTIONS: TAKITIMU EXPRESS (6), TOPNOTCH MACH (1), RETURN ACE (4), WEE JIMMY (8)
SUGGESTED BET: TAKITIMU EXPRESS (6) to win