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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Nov 14

Form Analysis: Albion Park Nov 14

RACE ONE

This is a wide-open Band 5 event where a case for victory could be made for most of the field. Leaning to BUMPER (10) who has been in good touch in recent outings, finishing top-2 at 4 of his past 6. His closing splits were super last start chasing home behind SMART AS CAMM BE and relying on some front-line heat, can swoop late.

MUCH BETTOR (8) was asked for an effort last start at Redcliffe when wide for a long way when 9m from the winner ITZ MY GENERATION. Luckless the start prior when retreating from gate 4 to find position, he will benefit from an economical trip from this alley and can be ready to strike.

POWER SURGE (1) was sent straight to the front here 2 starts back at her 1st outing in Qld to take control in a mares qualifier and was never worried thereafter. Beaten by gate 6 when 2nd up, she lands the options here.

KINGOFTHESTARS (2) was sent around them in the early stages last start to face the breeze over the sprint trip. In for the fight when only 6m from NURBURGRING, it followed 3 wins from his previous 4 outings. He can fire the early bullets.

SELECTIONS: BUMPER (10), MUCH BETTOR (8), POWER SURGE (1), KINGOFTHESTARS (2)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE TWO

SMART AS CAMM BE (10) was sent straight to the front over the 2138m here last week and was dealing in front, leading to a turn and burn. Scorching the stretch in a 26.2 closer, she claimed a 6.5m win. Chasing home from the rear when runner-up to STOMPEM the start prior, there looks enough early heat for her to arrive.

STOMPEM (1) settled in the running line over this trip 3 starts back and had too much power at the finish to take a 2m victory. Wide gates have been his undoing at his past 2 starts, but last time out he was attacking the line with gusto when 2m from the winner JOHNNY WHITE. He holds all the options.

ITZ MY GENERATION (8) was shooting for the hat-trick here on Tues when rolling the sleeves to race tough over the sprint trip. Unable to stave off COURAGEOUS SAINT in the closing stages, he held the silver and with a cosy trip here will be probing.

IDEAL WORLD (6) looks for a three-peat of victories after wins at his past 2 over this trip. Fighting them off after a sub 27 opener last time out, the lead could prove costly here.

SELECTIONS: SMART AS CAMM BE (10), STOMPEM (1), ITZ MY GENERATION (8), IDEAL WORLD (6)
SUGGESTED BET: SMART AS CAMM BE (10) to win

RACE THREE

LITTLE CHANGE (2) was luckless here last week when buried in the run from inside the 2nd line and with all the power up front was facing too big a task. A strong winner at Redcliffe 2 starts back, he was shuffled to 3 back the poles here 2 starts back when only beaten a pimple. He can capitalise.

CASINO TOMMY (10) will take further benefit from his latest appearance when 2nd up from a spell. Sent around them from this gate over this trip 1st up, he was soon in front and was fighting all the way to the wire when 2m away. Too slippery in front over the sprint trip last start, the gate stings his hopes but he can still challenge.

JONAH JONES (9) was in search of the hat-trick last start when gate 7 was his undoing. Retreating early as all the speed was underneath, he was wide off the track. Trailing through he can feature.

THATS HOW WEROLL (3) hit the line strongly last start when running individual splits of sub 55 and sub 26 on the way home when chasing behind DELIGHTFUL MAJOR. Settling close he can feature.

SELECTIONS: LITTLE CHANGE (2), CASINO TOMMY (10), JONAH JONES (9), THATS HOW WEROLL (3)
SUGGESTED BET: LITTLE CHANGE (2) to win

RACE FOUR

This looks one of the strongest qualifiers in recent times and looms as mouth-watering contest. Unbeaten in 5 Qld starts ONE CHANGE (9) can follow through to settle in a great spot here. Equalling the 3YO track record at this trip 2 starts back when cutting the breeze, he returned from a freshen last time and was never in danger out in front. He can complete the 6-pack.

L L COOL J (3) could not have been any more impressive at his 1st Qld start when tackling the mile last start. Content to float off the arm from gate 7 before moving around them early, he cruised home to score an effortless 6m win, running some smart closing panels. Stripping fitter for the outing, he faces a tough test 2nd up.

THE FORTUNATE SON (2) has shown a penchant for power running the mile, leaving his rivals gasping last start as he opened them up in a sub 27 split only to give them no respite in laying it down in 1.51.6. That was his 2nd big mile from his past 3 and similar tactics will have them chasing.

B MAC C (4) was obliged to roll the sleeves to do the work last start over the 2138m and was game in defeat when within 6m of the winner. He can tuck in behind the action here and look to offer late.

SELECTIONS: ONE CHANGE (9), L L COOL J (3), THE FORTUNATE SON (2), B MAC C (4)
SUGGESTED BET: ONE CHANGE (9) to win

RACE FIVE

PACIFIC DRUMS (1)
started from gate 4 last time out and with speed galore to his inside, stayed out of the battle to retreat to the fence and look for the short-cuts. Closing nicely when 6m from IDEAL WORLD, it followed a charging finish behind the in-form NURBURGRING. He looks the leerie and will be hoping to light the final lamp.

TRUE CONFESSIONS (8) started from this gate last time out and was soon locked away 3 back and looking for a big slice of luck. Finishing 5m from the winner SPEEDY DOMINIC, he will take benefit from the run which was his 1st in Qld. Holding the pocket trail, he can be ready for the lane here.

LA PLAYER (3) was sent straight to the front last time out over the 2138m to take control and thereafter was never in danger in claiming a 2m victory. Early position will be key, but he is up to it.

GOTTA MOMENT (4) settled a long way back in the pack last start from gate 11 over the 2138m and was strong to the line to grab the bronze when 4m in arrears of the winner SPEEDY DOMINIC. If there is too much pepper in the run, he can swoop.

SELECTIONS: PACIFIC DRUMS (1), TRUE CONFESSIONS (8), LA PLAYER (3), GOTTA MOMENT (4)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE SIX

CHERRYS THE BEST (5)
will strip fitter following her return from a spell here last time out. Locked away from inside the 2nd line, she could have been closer if the gaps opened sooner than the 4m margin to LA PLAYER she conceded. With the right run in transit from this gate, she can arrive.

JERADAS DELIGHT (6) has been too tough for her fellow mares at the past 2 starts, scoring successive wins over this trip when facing the breeze on each occasion. Grinding out a 1m victory last start, it followed a half-head victory from gate 3. The wider gate dents her hopes somewhat, but she will throw it down.

WITH THE BAND (4) pressed ahead from gate 5 last time out over the sprint trip prior to receiving cover and finishing down the line. Placed her previous 3 starts, she might nearly get across them here and from the front will give cheek.

HUNZA VALLEY (1) eased from gate 4 to find the poles last start and in the small field was soon at the rear. Finding the line nicely to be 8m from the winner, it followed a tidy effort when 6m from JERADAS DELIGHT from gate 6. Tucked in behind the speed, she will be sniping.

SELECTIONS: CHERRYS THE BEST (5), JERADAS DELIGHT (6), WITH THE BAND (4), HUNZA VALLEY (1)
SUGGESTED BET: HUNZA VALLEY (1) 1x4 win/place

RACE SEVEN

IDEAL TIGER (6) was able to find the spot in behind the leader last time out over the Redcliffe sprint trip, the cosy run paying dividends when finishing best to claim a half-head victory. His run the start prior had merit when making an error and then working hard as MAJOR FERNCO ripped home to score. The gate stings, but with plenty of early speed, he can sit back and stalk.

ONE OFF (1) will take goog benefit from his latest appearance when returning from close to 6-weeks between runs. Settling in the running line from gate 3 he worked home in good order to be 4m from the dictating winner DAPPER BESSIE. With the likelihood of an easy trip in behind the speed, he can take the snipers shot.

JEROSH (4) took up the lamp lighting duties at Redcliffe 2 starts back and from the front controlled the tempo to lead them all the way, running a smart closing 800m. Only a half-head away last start from inside the 2nd line, he can fire the early shots here.

JUST JOSHIN (8) found the right conditions last start over the Redcliffe 1780m, making a sustained move wide off the track and finishing best to score. Not far away in his previous 2 starts, he will be probing for space.

SELECTIONS: IDEAL TIGER (6), ONE OFF (1), JEROSH (4), JUST JOSHIN (8)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE EIGHT

The first of three DJA Heats to take place where GREG THE GREAT (10) can look to bounce back to winning form from his 10m handicap. His closing splits were strong last week when making up good ground from the rear when 4m from MAJESTIC SIMON. Closing strongly the start prior when 2m from MIRACLE RISING, maximum points in this heat can go his way.

SIR FAHRENHEIT (2) was wide off the track and making strong closing ground last start when 6m from MAJESTIC SIMON. Making an error the start prior that saw him banished to the trials, he eared the return with a smart hit-out. Slow to get back to his best this campaign, he turned the corner 5 runs back and if the manners come to the track with him, he will be a player.

NORTHERN MUSCLE (9) went to the pegs from his 30m mark last start and was strong to the line when 7m from the winner. Making a costly error 2 starts back when shooting for a hat-trick of wins, the 10m tape appeals.

MIRACLE RISING (1) broke a run of outs here last start when stepping straight to the front from the inside lane over this trip and fighting them off scored a 2m victory. He can feature again here.

SELECTIONS: GREG THE GREAT (10), SIR FAHRENHEIT (2), NORTHERN MUSCLE (9), MIRACLE RISING (1)
SUGGESTED BET: GREG THE GREAT (10) to win
 

RACE NINE

WEE MAN TROUBLE (9) was charging home here last week after being buried in the run from the 30m handicap. When the gaps opened, he really charged to the line to be 1m in arrears of MAJESTIC SIMON. Grinding hard in the breeze 2 starts back when 7m from CASTLEREAGH, he was freshened after that run and with the added fitness will give this a big shake.

GEE UP NEDDY (10) started from a 20m impost last time out when obliged to roll the sleeves to race tough outside the leader. In for the fight he went down swinging when only 2.5m from the winner. Too strong for them from this mark 3 starts back, he can show his good manners to get into the fight.

SKYLINE (5) was locked away against the poles last start when making good closing metres after starting from a 30m tape. A winner over this trip 2 starts back, he can be close to the action here.

JEDDY R YA READY (3) has been winless for a while yet he continues to be thereabouts. Making an early error last week, he worked forward prior to receiving cover and then finishing 3m in arrears. He has podium claims again.

SELECTIONS: WEE MAN TROUBLE (9), GEE UP NEDDY (10), SKYLINE (5), JEDDY R YA READY (3)
SUGGESTED BET: WEE MAN TROUBLE (9) to win

RACE TEN

The third of the DJA heats where the early tempo will be vital for some of these. The veteran OUR OVERANOVA (9) looks to get into the Series very nicely from just the 30m handicap. Over the long trip he will not know himself, the last time he was off 30m at The Creek was back in 2014. Closing nicely here 2 starts back from the 40m tape when 2m from MIRACLE RISING, he can look for maximum points.

MAJESTIC SIMON (8) shoots for the hat-trick after wins at the 2138m from the front tape and then last start over this trip when stepping from 20m impost. Working home powerfully last start to round them up and put them away, it followed a strong effort when working in the run. He will throw down a big challenge.

MONARO MIA (7) was 1st up for Terry Hancock last week when settling near the rear of the field after making an error as the tapes released. Working home in some tidy closing splits, she can be in the mix.

IM THE COMMANDO (2) pressed ahead from the 10m tape to take control here 2 starts back but could not see it out as MAJESTIC SIMON took the win. Meeting that winner better at the handicaps, if left alone in front, he will give cheek.

SELECTIONS: OUR OVERANOVA (9), MAJESTIC SIMON (8), MONARO MIA (7), IM THE COMMANDO (2)
SUGGESTED BET: OUR OVERANOVA (9) to win