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The Ex-Factor with Nathan Exelby - February 11

11 February 2022

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Well-known Queensland media man Nathan Exelby is a constant at the track and has all the inside information as we head into another big weekend of racing in the Sunshine State.

 

THORNTON’S DETERMINATION SHINES THROUGH

I PROFILED Boris Thornton last week in a Brisbane Racing Club social piece following his win on SCALLOPINI in the Sunshine Coast Cup.

It was an enlightening interview, hearing how complications from a shoulder injury saw him sidelined for more than 12 months and wondering whether he might never ride again.

It also revealed how much Thornton has matured since the injury and showed him to be totally focused on being a better rider.

The steely determination he spoke about there is coming through in his riding.

There’s no one riding better in south-east Queensland at the moment.

His winning rides on SAFEWORK and GOGOL in particular were outstanding efforts last Saturday.

He then landed his lone ride on Sunday a winner at the Coast (WHISTLING SPIRIT at $6.50), then produced another gem to get THE CULLINAN ($8) home narrowly at Ipswich on Wednesday.

His best rides this Saturday on paper look to be BOOMNOVA and ENTERPRISE POMME, but with both drawn out, it remains to be seen if they go to the post.

Either way, he’s a jockey well worth following because he’s riding full of confidence and giving mounts every chance to show their best.

DREAM TEAM CONTINUE WINNING RUN

THE O’Dea/Hoysted juggernaut just keeps hurtling along, with another two from two at Doomben last Saturday in the shape of RICH LISTER and OCEAN TREATY.

A quick glance at the Premiership tables at a national level shows just how potent this training combination has been this season.

Their strike rate towers over any other trainer on the Top 20 winners list and then when you switch to the Metropolitan list, where they are running 11th nationally, it’s even better, with a near 32% strike rate in the city.

Next best is Grant and Alana Williams over in the west at a tick over 25%.

While strike rates don’t pay bills, what it does underline is how astutely O’Dea and Hoysted are placing their horses.

They head to Doomben with just two acceptors this weekend and both will come in for plenty of support from punters.

ENTERPRISE POMME is scheduled to have her first start for the camp in the three-year-old.

She’s drawn off the track, so it wouldn’t surprise to see her come out and be saved for another day but if a decision is made to press ahead, she will be one of the top fancies.

KINGSTON’S HERE has been gifted perfect rides in his past two wins by Baylee Nothdurft and Ron Stewart. He now steps up a touch in grade to a Class 6 Plate, where TRAMONTO resumes and looks superbly placed after the claim.

But Kingston’s Here is drawn to get a nice trail behind a genuine tempo and find the line again.

Punters are having difficulty splitting the pair in early betting.

SHOULD WE HAVE SEEN THIS COMING?

BOOKMAKERS got the big split last week when SAFEWORK spoiled the Black Soil Bloodstock party and condemned GLITTER STRIP and PALLADAS to another cross on their shaky win scorecards.

Palladas was rated stiff by most, but he’s finding plenty of ways to get beaten.

Glitter Strip seemingly had her chance after Ben Thompson picked his way through the field and got to the outside in the straight.

I wonder if bookies could hope for a similar scenario in the final event at Doomben on Saturday?

Punters will be lining up Tramonto and Kingston’s Here.

The latter is in brilliant form this prep, coming of age after doing plenty wrong last preparation.

Tramonto resumes after having a tough run in the Silver Eagle last October and being spelled.

Prior he was stakes placed behind DESERT LORD in the Goldmarket, having won first up in a lesser race at Doomben.

You won’t find a better placed horse in all of Australia than Tramonto with the 52.5kg (after Jaden Lloyd’s claim). He’s drawn to get to a good spot without doing too much work, so if he’s anywhere near right, they will have a devil of a time beating him.

On ratings, it’s hard to make a case how Kingston’s Here could beat him giving away 5kg.

But Tramonto is first up, so bookies may give themselves a hope.

If there is to be an upset, I fancy EXPLOSIVE QUALITY is the one to do it.

She gave a big sight at the Sunshine Coast last time, with MASS DESTRUCTION only getting the better of her in the last 100m. She did beat the others easily enough.

She should sit on speed and give her backers something to cheer about at around the $15 quote being bet early.

TAKING THE PUNT WITH STAR GAMBLE?

STAR GAMBLE was scratched off a wide gate in a pretty average race last Saturday and now finds himself against classier rivals at Doomben this Saturday.

I’m still prepared to gamble on him measuring up.

When MERIMEE sailed down the middle of the track to win running away last week, I couldn’t help but to think what Star Gamble’s connections might have thought, given that’s likely the same spot he would have been making his run.

In any case, they have waited an extra week and come up with a better draw.

He is likely to settle well off what looks a genuine tempo, with a few horses trying to stretch from 1000m to 1200m for the first time.

If they start gasping in the last little bit, Star Gamble should be hitting the line.

I like what he did winning at Ipswich.

There was nothing startling on the clock or even in the sectionals, but there was a certain arrogance that you only tend to see from ones who are a bit above average.

At $7.50 or thereabout at the moment, I’m happy to have something on him.

BEWARE THE UNLUCKY LAST START RUNNER

IT'S a saying that can go both ways.

While video watchers are quick to pounce on those that are ‘stiff’, there is another school of thought.

Equally, I’ve heard other smart judges suggest it can be overplayed and those type of horses aren’t the best betting commodities because they never go unnoticed in the market place.

On Wednesday at Ipswich, LINTHORPE LAD fit into the category, having been luckless in two runs leading into what was an easier race.

With a senior jock up, he was heavily backed and landed the prize.

CAFFREY will be your next exhibit when he lines up in the fourth event (NMW 1350m) at Doomben on Saturday.

Most agreed Caffrey was as stiff as a board not to win first up for Desleigh Forster at the Sunshine Coast.

He now gets into a similar class race and comes up $3 or thereabout. It wouldn’t surprise if he became even shorter.

Either way, you know there’s no way the marketplace is going to miss him.

So will that create opportunities with other horses in the race? Possibly.

CRACKER ESSGEE is one that interests me. He was super competitive in APACHE CHASE’s Gateway and has run three times on wet tracks since.

Back onto a dry surface this weekend, I suspect he can be a much better horse than we’ve seen at his past two runs.

He just needs Ryan Maloney to try and find a spot to get in before that first turn.

 

BEST BETS

  • Our Candidate: Race 3, No.1 - $4
  • Princess Tenko: Race 5, No.8 - $7
  • Profit: Race 8, No.1 - $4