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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 31

Form Analysis: Albion Park Jul 31


RACE ONE

After Ray Green made the Constellations his own over the past 3 weeks, 4YO TOMMY LINCOLN (6) is left with local trainer Mark Dux off the back of successive wins. Sent to the front over the mile last week, he continued to give to the wire in a sharp mile. Back to the 2138m where he claimed a qualifier 2 starts back, he has no favours from the gate but can continue his good form.

MACH DA VINCI (1) looked to get his best opportunity to earn some travelling money here last week from gate 3 where he was able to secure the 1x1 trail. 4m in arrears of TOMMY LINCOLN on the line, he can secure the economical trip from this alley to make a closing challenge in the stretch.

CRUNCH TIME (8) is not suited pegged away from this alley but if able to work into open air at some point would be more desirable. Asked to sit parked, he was game in defeat outside TOMMY LINCOLN last week and just needs to get clear to make a play.

RAGNARR (2) pressed forward to take control here on Tuesday and from the front over the trip could not repel the challenge of SOME EXCUSESOMEWHERE. Beaten close margins his past 2, this is a step up, but he has the gate to feature.


SELECTIONS: TOMMY LINCOLN (6), MACH DA VINCI (1), CRUNCH TIME (8), RAGNARR (2)
SUGGESTED BET: TOMMY LINCOLN (6) to win

RACE TWO

This looks a wide-open contest where there look several chances dependent on how the tempo unfolds. Placed in 2 of his 4 starts here at The Creek, SMOKIN BY (9) can follow through early to secure position before looking to descend on them. Claiming the bronze behind SCOOB OPERATOR last start, it followed a game effort from gate 7 when sitting parked. Just needs a pinch of luck.

MAJORDOIT (3) eased from gate 6 at his latest appearance over the 2138m to settle near the rear of the pack. Making a sustained run to hit the line in nice order when breaking 55 for his own individual last 800m it followed a strong run to the line behind KEAYANG KREUZER 2 starts back. Limiting the early toll, he can throw it down.

BETTOR VISION (7) has no favours from the wide gate but found some form to overturn a winless streak in midweek company here last start. Charging home to arrive on the wire, he can be thereabouts again here.

KENSINGTON BILL (2) has not been used off the gate for some time but comes up with the conditions here where an early shot could be on the agenda. 6m away here on Tuesday, he was chasing hard when 4m from KEAYANG KREUZER 2 runs back. He is right in the action in this line up.

SELECTIONS: SMOKIN BY (9), MAJORDOIT (3), BETTOR VISION (7), KENSINGTON BILL (2)
SUGGESTED BET: SMOKIN BY (9) to win

RACE THREE

Another tricky looking contest with a few of these looking to capitalise with the absence of the topliners. ALTA ORLANDO (6) only started once during the Constellations, with that appearance coming in the Sunshine Sprint when finishing in the second half of the pack behind COPY THAT. Attacking the line strongly the start prior in the Golden Mile at Menangle, he gets his chance.

BLACKSADANCE (5) looked to lead throughout in the 4YO Championship and was mighty game in defeat when only collared late, finishing 2m from the winner SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS. Only 2m from EXPENSIVE EGO 3 starts back, it was sandwiched with a luckless run in the Rising Sun. With early bullets to fire, he can make the step in this.

KID MONTANA (2) was runner-up in midweek company here 2 starts back when hitting the line in nice order behind SCOOB OPERATOR. Buried in the run last week, the effort was sound as SEND IT weaved a passage to claim the prize. He can be handy enough to make a challenge in this.

After the barrier draw, it would have been interesting to gauge the expression of trainer Chris Frisby with his star OUR UNCLE SAM (3). Drawn no closer than gate 5 at his past 11 in succession he finally draws tighter, and it can be the catalyst for a better return.

SELECTIONS: ALTA ORLANDO (6), BLACKSADANCE (5), KID MONTANA (2), OUR UNCLE SAM (3)
SUGGESTED BET: ALTA ORLANDO (6) to win

RACE FOUR

This qualifier looks a great battle and the early pepper from the front line could make it interesting. With the benefit of the ace OUR ACTION MAN (1) should have enough hustle to hold or decides who to release which puts the play squarely in his hands. Putting them away in fine style last start when moving up and clearing out to a 21m victory, he looks the one they need to beat.

LIFE LAVROS (8) was huge in victory here at The Creek on Tuesday when sitting parked and then pulling clear to win by a dozen metres in a sub 53 mile. That followed a smart win over the 2138m when powering over the top of them to score in a slippery closing panel. The big query is where he settles in transit.

GOOD AS IT GETS (5) found the pocket trail last start over the 2138m and was not too far away from them when 4m from the winner BLACK HAWK JOE. The gate is a little sticky here but with an even slice of luck he can chime in.

ROCK FISHERMAN (3) looked to have found the ideal conditions here 2 starts back from gate 2 over the mile. After a steady opening 800m of the last mile, he was swamped in the stretch in finishing 6th when 2.5m from the winner.

SELECTIONS: OUR ACTION MAN (1), LIFE LAVROS (8), GOOD AS IT GETS (5), ROCK FISHERMAN (3)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-3-5-8

RACE FIVE

QUICK STEP (6) put together a hat-trick of wins, with two of those here at The Creek where she ran a new PB 54.3 mile at the third win when charging home over the top. Snagging back from gate 5 last start, she was trying to wind up when finishing 10m from the winner YEP GOT CHOOKS. The gate is the stinger, but tempo should suit.

JEWEL OF PEAK (4) has shown her best work on the smaller tracks but finds the right conditions here to take a good shot. Too slick in front at Redcliffe last start, she can settle forward and be trying to cling on.

SPORT MENTAL (9) will take her first look at headquarters after all 3 outings have been at Redcliffe. Forced to grind it out when parked last start, she was game in holding in for the silver. In an open mare’s event, she has podium claims.

RAANI (8) is still locked up in traffic from her run here on Tuesday where she was buried in the pack and never saw daylight. Closing out in nice order the start prior, she will be searching for gaps again here.

SELECTIONS: QUICK STEP (6), JEWEL OF PEAK (4), SPORT MENTAL (9), RAANI (8)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE SIX

DOUBLE OR NOTHING (8)
started from the 2nd line last time out over the mile and was hitting the line in nice order when 2m from the passing lane winner NOWHERE CREEK. He could have been closer the start prior if sighting the gaps sooner when runner-up to BLUE MOON RISING and with the options as the lone second liner here, can swoop on them.

SIMON (1) was returning from a freshen at Redcliffe 2 starts back when put into the contest after 400m over the sprint trip. Once in control, he had them chasing and stopped the clock in strong time around The Triangle. Following that with a win from the 2nd line, he comes up with the gate to challenge here.

FIRST STRING (3) has faced the starter twice this campaign, the latest when 6m in arrears of the winner BLUE MOON RISING. That followed an easy Redcliffe win when first up and from the gate he looms large.

MAKE MINE MEMPHIS (5) added another minor to his tally last start when trying to launch a closing rally. Finishing with the silver when 2m shy of BLACK HAWK JOE, he can be thereabouts once again.

SELECTIONS: DOUBLE OR NOTHING (8), SIMON (1), FIRST STRING (3), MAKE MINE MEMPHIS (5)
SUGGESTED BET: DOUBLE OR NOTHING (8) to win

 

RACE EIGHT

Following from the DJA and then Qld Cup last week, an absence of the top liners will be appreciated by the reigning Qld Trotter of the Year MAJESTIC SIMON (7). Put into the battle early in the DJA Final from the 30m tape, he was game in defeat and then last week under mobile conditions was fighting hard from the front. Despite 40m, he should be hard to stop.

OUR OVERANOVA (6) lands the equal back-mark and the 11YO has been in nice touch through the features of the Carnival where he held on for the bronze in the DJA Final. He nearly pinched the Round 1 heat before PINK GALAHS rounded him up and back to this grade will challenge hard.

KINGDOM COME (3) was a level or two below them through the Carnival but with the small field in this line up, he can be much more effective. At his best when saved for a closing shot, he can join in.

MAJESTIC ESS JAY (1) was set forward in the middle stages over the 2138m last start after beginning from a 30m tape and proved too strong. This is a step up but from this lane off the front has podium claims.

SELECTIONS: MAJESTIC SIMON (7), OUR OVERANOVA (6), KINGDOM COME (3), MAJESTIC ESS JAY (1)
SUGGESTED BET: MAJESTIC SIMON (7) to win


 

RACE NINE

Gate 6 is a stronger but with a victory at his most recent outing over both subsequent Triad finalists in CAT KING COLE and AWAYWEGO MY ULTIMATE BAXTER (6) looks to have a class edge. Only defeated once in his career, that was when finishing as the runner-up to TEDDY DISSCO in the Paleface Adios Classic. Class is key.

MY ULTIMATE LEVI (5) was right in the market to claim the Boys Triad last week but made a costly error before finishing off in nice order to grab 4th. A winner over the older horses in smart order the start prior when returning from a spell, he can look to challenge the stablemate.

MELTON BEACH (2) was on debut last start when sent forward from gate 6 and after doing some work when initially parked, he took control passing the 1000m. Only a head away, he will take plenty of benefit from the run and can pop up in the money.

SELECTIONS: MY ULTIMATE BAXTER (6), MY ULTIMATE LEVI (5), MELTON BEACH (2)
SUGGESTED BET: MY ULTIMATE BAXTER (6) to win