Well known QLD media man NATHAN EXELBY is a constant at the track and has all the inside information as we head into another big weekend of racing in the Sunshine State.
YEAR OFF CAN BE A BLESSING
NO doubt the big talking point this Saturday is the Swiss Ace Plate on the Sunshine Coast, a race only in its infancy, but already clearly valued by trainers of Queensland’s better short course performers.
Tony Gollan and the Steve O’Dea/Matt Hoysted partnership have seven of the final 11 acceptors and are cornering the market.
The big-ticket runner is ZOUSTYLE, now a six-year-old and the veteran of just 11 starts, of which he’s won seven.
He’s unbeaten in his home state, the most recent appearance being a 900m gallop on the Gold Coast in September last year, where he took care of subsequent stakes winner USMANOV in easy fashion.
He was injured again soon after and went back down south to Lee Everson in Victoria to get his troubled legs right.
The reports this time around about his soundness have all been very good and he’s looked sharp in both his official trial win and recent jumpout.
But off 427 days, it will be a good test for him taking on newcomers to the scene like SHOOTING FOR GOLD, THE MOVE and GARIBALDI.
How much of a drawback is the 12 months-plus between runs?
I understand every scenario is different, but thought the stats were worth looking at…
In Australian TAB races since 2012, more than 12,000 horses have had a start when 365 days or longer between runs for a strike rate of around five per cent. Overall, they lose about 40 per cent on turnover when flat staking them.
So on face value, not flash.
But delve a little deeper and it’s nowhere near as bad as you would think when lining up a horse high up in the market like Zoustyle.
That same pool of horses, when starting favourite, strike at 34% - which is in line with the national average – and lose less than five per cent on turnover. That’s good going compared to all favourites which are closer to an 8% loss.
When second-elect in the market they strike at 18% and lose 16% - which is slightly worse than the 20% of second elects that win and lose around 12% across all races. Third and fourth in the market strike at 9% and 8% (all runners is 13% and 9%) and then the numbers predictably drop off from that point.
If we isolate those runners that started favourite in races between 1000 and up to 1199m, the figures look even better, with 38% of the long lay-off horses winning first up.
So, if market intelligence close to race time is telling us Zoustyle is still strongly fancied, the fact he hasn’t raced for so long shouldn’t be a turn off – as the stats say - it can be done and happens quite regularly.
From a ratings point of view, he stacks up at every angle and with this being a set weights and penalty race, he’s the horse best served by the conditions.
One final note: In Zoustyle’s unblemished seven Queensland starts, he has started favourite every single time, including odds-on in six of them. The early $3.20 being bet is the best price he’s ever been in a home state race. Perhaps come Saturday afternoon we will look back and think what a gift.
For Zoustyle backers, let’s hope so!
Check out the latest TAB markets here.
SWISS COULD COME UP ACES FOR CARNIVAL
THE Swiss Ace should be a strong guide going forward into the remainder of the summer carnival.
If Zoustyle can hold together, he will be a leading contender for the George Moore Stakes on December 5 and later a candidate to try and secure a Magic Millions wildcard.
But he’s not the only one with the ability to show up over the next couple of months.
Garibaldi was being hyped as a Stradbroke contender during the winter (guilty as charged) and despite not quite measuring up, he didn’t disgrace himself either.
With the benefit of a good spell, he can bounce back this time around.
At his pet trip of 1200m, he has a brilliant turn of foot at his best and the George Moore can be a good target for him too.
The Move has made his name in short course events over the past seven months, so Tony Gollan will likely look for a black-type event in that distance range for him.
SHOOTING FOR GOLD was tested at 1400m last season but was allowed to come through his grades at 1000m and 1110m last time in work. He is a three-times winner over 1200m, so it shouldn’t be an issue when Matt Hoysted and Steve O’Dea ask him to go the extra furlong in coming weeks.
Don’t miss catch up episodes of The Playbook here.
BOOKIES OFFERING CREAM WITH HONEY
THERE’S been plenty of hype around unraced two-year-old HONEY POT ahead of her debut in the opener at the Sunny Coast on Saturday.
She’s been the subject of countless social media posts and even feature interviews and stories, despite not having raced yet.
The fire has been fueled around an impressive 650m trial win at Deagon and just as compelling subsequent jumpout at Doomben.
Trainer Tony Gollan had his first juvenile winner for the season when CAPITAL TOWER won at Doomben on Wednesday, but this girl looks a cut above. She beat SAWEETIE (ran well Doomben last Saturday) in the jumpout and did it easily.
It was a little surprising TAB went up black figures of $2.20 about the Spirit Of Boom filly’s chances. Many were expecting significantly shorter.
The expert market framers are suggesting either a) the hype isn’t quite justified, or b) the race has more depth than any other two-year-old race we’ve seen so far in Brisbane this season.
Of the raced division, SNEAKY STARTER bolted in on debut at this track, while GODDESS OF PEACE battled on soundly at Eagle Farm second time out.
Then there’s the usual couple of MISHANI runners and let’s face it, who knows how to line up those babies? It seems the market gets them wrong a good chunk of the time.
Finally, Nat McCall has a promising I AM INVINCIBLE colt in the shape of INVINOVICH, who was never out of second gear winning a trial on his home track.
So there may well be some depth here.
I’m hoping it’s a case of the market framers getting it wrong and being generous with Honey Pot, as opposed to them getting it right in thinking the hype might be overstated.
Check out the latest TAB Futures markets here.
ARISE SIR WARWICK
SIR WARWICK tackles his toughest test on Saturday against a really good Class 6 standard event.
A few of these will be on their way to Open company soon enough.
Sir Warwick made it four on end when winning at Doomben last time out, but the clock said it was nowhere near as convincing as what he had done previously.
I’m thinking the 1350m might have been a test there. He was never in danger of losing but given the way his speed numbers fell off the cliff, it might have just been class that got him home.
Back to 1200m, and if he runs up to the numbers he put on the board at Doomben two starts back, they are going to be flat out catching him on Saturday.
BEST BETS AT THE SUNSHINE COAST
Honey Pot - R1, $2.15
Heaven Amore - R3, $9.50
Zoustyle - R7, $3.20
Sir Warwick - R9, $4