By Trent Crebbin
The 2023 Queensland Racing Carnival reaches its crescendo on Saturday with their crown jewel - the Stradbroke Handicap.
Group 1 Handicap racing is great. No six horse field processions at Weight-For-Age with limited betting opportunities but a full field of 18 and a genuine spread of weights, ranging from Rothfire with 57kg down to Hawaii Five Oh with 49.5kg.
Often the best recipe for success in a Handicap is those who have overachieved to an extent in Weight-For-Age races but drop sharply in the weights out of it and the obvious starting point therefore is Think About It.
He's been a revelation for Joseph Pride, winning his past six in a row and remarkably improving his Timeform rating on every occasion. Every start he's raised the bar and although he hasn't won by big margins, he gets the job done with a versatile pattern which should see him land forward of midfield from a solid draw.
The last horse to come through the Group 1 Kingsford Smith over 1300 metres to win the Stradbroke was Trekking in 2019. He would run third there and 115 with Timeform, dropping 5kg to 54kg and taking out the Stradbroke by running to 119.
In fact, three of the past four winners of the race have run to 119 to win - Trekking, Alligator Blood and Tofane, with Tyzone only needing to hit 113 to win in 2020. The good news for Think About It is he's already rated 121 off his Kingsford Smith win and drops the same weight as Trekking did to 54kg.
When you consider he's managed to improve at his past six starts, any further improvement and it would take a huge leap from something previously unseen to be toppling him.
Hawaii Five Oh is the rapid improver that could take that step. His past two wins have been very good, running to 114 and 116 although he's had ideal runs in each. He'll come into barrier two and I'd think he's probably three back the fence needing a bit of luck with Nash replaced by King.
Of the others I think Aft Cabin has to be considered a big chance off a lovely trial at Weight-For-Age in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000, getting home into fourth behind Giga Kick. That 119 was a new peak for him and puts him right in the mix.
The roughie that I'd put in all exotics is Scallopini. He's perhaps not as well weighted as a few with 55.5kg, nor has as much upside but he's flying, running to 116+ in four of his past five. He made a strong tempo in what has been a strong recent lead up, the Group 3 BRC Sprint over 1350 metres and was incredibly game, beaten under a length. He gets every chance from the barrier and I think he can be in the finish at $50.