Comprehensive Vince Curry Final preview

By Alex Nolan

To piece together the Vince Curry Memorial Maiden Final puzzle, it may be worth casting an eye back through the recent history books.

The Adam McIntosh-trained Elisheba looks set to enter the race as a short-priced favourite with the Corey Mutton-trained He’s Classified a likely second favourite, as both greyhounds chase a clean sweep of the series.  

The Vince Curry is a race that has thrown up a surprise result, or two, with fast youngsters all colliding at an early stage of their careers.

With that in mind, let’s peel back a few of the layers that make the $75,000 Group 3 feature one of the most anticipated races in the Sunshine State each year to see if we can find the winner.

 

Favourites

Things haven’t gone totally according to script for favourites for the majority of the past decade in Australia’s richest maiden race.

Calculating the average SP ($9.95) in that time is made a little tricky due to the fact Split Image paid upwards of $39 when dead-heating with $2.70 race favourite and kennel mate Paua To Avoid for Tony Brett back in 2016.

When you remove Split Image from the mix, the average SP is adjusted to $6.30. 

Paua To Avoid was one of three favourites to win in the past 10 runnings, proceeded by Farmor Beach ($1.45) in 2020 and Rumble Ranger ($2) a year later.

Shipwreck became the longest-priced winner since Split Image shared the spoils with Paua To Avoid, when he claimed the race as a $15 chance in 2022 for trainer Ned Snow.  

 

Boxes

Shipwreck is the only winner in that time to have scored from box five.

Box four and box three provided the equal most winners with three apiece, while box one and box eight both accounted for two.

Boxes two, six and seven have failed to produce a winner in the past decade.

 

Position in running

Like most races, box speed has also been a critical factor to finding the winner.

While Shipwreck came from a trailing position last year, Rumble Ranger (2021), Farmor Beach (2020) and Rose Honey (2018) all led through the first section.

No runner has come from further back than second and third to win in the past decade.

 

Previous performance

Winning a semi-final has also been a key pointer, with six-straight winners between 2016 and 2021 carrying winning form into the Final.

Rumble Ranger, Farmor Beach, Spotted Wolf and Paua To Avoid all recorded a clean sweep of the series.

 

So what about this year?

Elisheba ($2.20), He’s Classified ($3.50) and winless runner Digital Sea ($6) all fit within the SP profile and possess the early speed to find the front.  

He’s Classified and Digital Sea come out of the right boxes, but the latter has been run down in both his heat and semi-final.

Elisheba, He’s Classified and King Of Cool all bring winning form from the semi-finals, but it is Elisheba that boasts the fastest winning time of the series to this point.

If she can overcome box seven, it will give trainer Adam McIntosh his sixth winner from his past seven runners at the races.

For that reason, I’ll lean her way.

 

GROUP 3 VINCE CURRY MEMORIAL FINAL – THE PAST 10 WINNERS

2022 – Box 5: Shipwreck – 30.77 ($15)

2021 – Box 4: Rumble Ranger – 30.33 ($2)

2020 – Box 1: Farmor Beach – 30.33 ($1.45)

2019 – Box 3: Spotted Wolf – 30.74 ($8.50)

2018 – Box 8: Rose Honey – 30.81 ($10.50)

2017 – Box 1: Fire To Rain – 30.50 ($6.80)

2016 – Box 4: Paua To Avoid/Split Image – 30.42 ($2.70/$39)*

2015 – Box 3: Heidi Benz – 30.83 ($7)

2014 – Box 4: Jungle Junction – 30.46 ($4)

2013 – Box 3: Allez Brigette – 30.65 ($5)

*Dead heat for first.