Form Analysis: Redcliffe October 12

RACE 1 

CEDAR CREEK FALLS (1) had little luck last start in a race she was forced to work hard at the start and through the middle of the race. Her stablemate My Ultimate Mario was able to take that race out and has since won again. She gate speed giving her options early and should be hard to beat however it plays out.

DREAM MELODY (2) has good early speed and may look to press forward at the start of this race and look for a prominent position in running. If she was able to lead in this race she would likely take running down having run well at this track and trip previously.

LETTERKENNY BOY (5) hasn’t raced since early September which appears somewhat of a query. He appears to be a big class dropper in this race having taken on stand starts in his latest two outings where he faced a 20 metre handicap at Redcliffe over the 1780 in the heat and final of the Garrards Showcase series.

SIR BRIGADOON (7) appears likely to get a good run through in the early stages of this race. He has poor numerical form but hasn’t had a lot of luck in his races and may be an improver from the good draw. 

SELECTIONS: CEDAR CREEK FALLS (1), DREAM MELODY (2), LETTERKENNY BOY (5), SIR BRIGADOON (7)

SUGGESTED BET: CEDAR CREEK FALLS (1) to win.

RACE 2 

SARGEANT (3) has been an improver in recent outings. He put in a good run three starts ago when running on strongly to get into second behind Dee Terror. He should be able to work forward and find a prominent position in running and from there can prove hard to beat in this company. 

VINCENT TIME (9) had no luck last start making a break at a crucial stage last start at Marburg. He is generally a horse that does his best work when able to find a position up on speed which is how he was able to score his latest win in late August when sitting without cover in fast time at Marburg. 

VIKANDER (5) hasn’t started since early September where she made a break and finds herself ODM in this race as a result. She has shown previously she has versatility in this type of grade. She may find herself getting back early in this race and should be running on late.

VINNIE NITRO (2) hasn’t been at her best in recent outings. She was shuffled a long way back last start and didn’t make much impression once she got into the clear late. She is better than that and her best would see her competitive in this company from a good draw. 

SELECTIONS: SARGEANT (3), VINCENT TIME (9), VIKANDER (5), VINNIE NITRO (2)

SUGGESTED BET: SARGEANT (3) to win. 

RACE 3

HYDEEHO (2) has good early speed and draws outside of a horse that elected to take a trail from the same draw in a recent race. He hasn’t led since one of his earlier starts in the state when he wasn’t racing as well as he seems to be now. He found the pegs two starts ago and was well beaten after racing on a strong tempo. 

MISTER REACTOR (6) was a winner five starts ago when scoring by a big margin at Marburg after starting off a 20 metre handicap in the early stages. He took on a race over the 2138 at Albion Park last start and was well beaten by Credulous who has since won again. 

MISTY CREEK (5) appeared to be a touch disappointing last start when making no impression on the leader and winner One Last Roll after securing a great run into the race on the back of Madrigal who was able to run second. On his better efforts he appears well graded in this race and should be thereabouts.

LITTLE BOLT (3) comes into this race first up from a spell and draws reasonably in this race. He impressed last time in when running a number of placings before breaking through for a win his second last start before heading for a spell. Given he is first up without a trial fitness may be a query in this race. 

SELECTIONS: HYDEEHO (2), MISTER REACTOR (6), MISTY CREEK (5), LITTLE BOLT (3)

SUGGESTED BET: HYDEEHO (2) to win.

RACE 4 

MALIBU DREAM (4) has been racing well in her recent starts. She led over the 2040 at this track two starts ago before over racing badly and running a narrow second. She can press forward in this race and if she was able to find the lead she would be hard to run down.

WILLIEWA LIGHTNING (10) he was able to score a good win two starts ago when running over the top late at Albion park. He is likely to find this race tougher but has run well at this track and trip before and should be hard to beat with the right run into the race. 

CHEDDAR MADE BETA (6) appears well graded in this race on some of his better efforts. He appears likely to get a long way back from the wide gate in this race and will be relying on there being a genuine early tempo to bring him into the race. 

MAN OF ACTION (9) hasn’t been at his best in recent outings. He drops in grade into this race but doesn’t draw favourably and seems to prefer racing over the shorter journey. 

SELECTIONS: MALIBU DREAM (4), WILLIEWA LIGHTNING (10), CHEDDAR MADE BETA (6), MAN OF ACTION (9)

SUGGESTED BET: WILLIEWA LIGHTNING (10) to win.

RACE 5

MAJOR SLIP UP (5) drew poorly last start and had a tough run in the race. He is a long way back in grade on his better efforts and despite another poor draw he looks one of the better chances in this race. 

DOOLITTLE DOOZZIE (6) was left without cover last start at Marburg in a race taken out by My Ultimate Rudi who was able to secure a much more economical run. She is likely to be forced to do work at some stage in the race given her wide draw. 

FAVREAU (10) didn’t have much luck at this track and trip two starts ago when sitting without cover and fading into sixth. He was well beaten there but appears to land in a weaker race.

CAPTAIN OH CAPTAIN (2) showed gate speed last start to hold the lead early and was just run down late by the horse on his back in My Ultimate Rudi. If he can work to the lead in this race he should prove hard to run down with a similar effort to last start. 

SELECTIONS: MAJOR SLIP UP (5), DOOLITTLE DOOZZIE (6), FAVREAU (10), CAPTAIN OH CAPTAIN (2)

SUGGESTED BET: MAJOR SLIP UP (5) to win.

RACE 6 

SHADYS DELIGHT (6) draws poorly in this race but brings the best form into this and appears to be landing in one of the weaker races he has contested in some time. Four starts ago he did some early work and wasn’t beaten far behind One Chain Road and a similar effort would see him competitive in this race.

VERMONT (2) showed gate speed to lead last start and ran poorly when beaten a long way in just moderate time at this track and trip. She comes into this race first up for nearly two months and fitness appears a query. She looks one of the class runners and draws well again. 

MAGIC NITRO (3) has been below her best in recent times. She took on a race last start over the 2040 and tired badly late to run last. She is likely to appreciate the step back in class and trip back to the 1780.

TAKE COURAGE (4) ran a good second five starts ago in a similar type of race behind Rollonx. She didn’t have much luck last start when caught wide early before being forced to the rear of the field.

SELECTIONS: SHADYS DELIGHT (6), VERMONT (2), MAGIC NITRO (3), TAKE COURAGE (4)

SUGGESTED BET: SHADYS DELIGHT (6) to win. 

RACE 7

UNIT FORTY ONE (2) is a long way back in grade in this race off some of his better efforts. He comes into this race first up from a spell and trialled up nicely when sitting without cover and proving too good. He should be able to find a prominent position in running in this race from a good draw and looks hard to beat. 

SCORES (8) comes into this race fourth up from a spell and should be nearing peak fitness. He was able to show good gate speed last start to lead at Marburg and just got tired late to run fourth. 

BATMAN BART (5) comes into this race first up from a spell which looks a big query given he often takes a few runs to get going in his campaign. He trialled moderately behind Move Heavennearth and is likely to have derived plenty of benefit from that outing. 

HIGHWAY WRITER (6) has been racing well having placed in two of his last three outings. He ran well three starts ago when running into second after being badly held up at a crucial stage of the race behind Kiwi Royalty.

SELECTIONS: UNIT FORTY ONE (2), SCORES (8), BATMAN BART (5), HIGHWAY WRITER (6)

SUGGESTED BET: UNIT FORTY ONE (2) to win. 

RACE 8

MY ULTIMATE LEO (2) trialled up nicely winning by a big margin at this track albeit in just moderate time. He then took on a much stronger race last start which was taken out by Ideal Pursuit who rated good time for a 2YO maiden. If he can lead he should be hard to beat. 

SCHMIKI (4) showed good gate speed in a recent trial before tiring late into a midfield finish. He was just fair on debut but is likely to have derived plenty of benefit from that outing and his recent trial. 

THREEOEIGHT (9) comes into this race second up from a spell having been well beaten last start at this track from a wide gate behind Keg On Legs. He starts from a poor gate again in this race and will need to have significantly improved to take this race out. 

THREEFIVEONE (1) returns from a spell in this race having shown some ability at stages last time in. She trialled well in preparation for this race taking out a recent stand start trial at this track.

SELECTIONS: MY ULTIMATE LEO (2), SCHMIKI (4), THREEOEIGHT (9), THREEFIVEONE (1)

SUGGESTED BET: MY ULTIMATE LEO (2) to win.