Form Analysis: Redcliffe October 17

RACE 1 

OUR ULTIMATE BEATY (1) has good early speed and likely dictates the map in the early stages of this race. She elected to hand over the lead last start and appeared to be travelling well throughout before running a competitive second. She is in good form and looks hard to beat in this race from a good draw. 

TINTIN IN LOGAN (4) has been racing better than his numerical form would suggest. He may be forced to get back in the run off an awkward draw in this race and can be running into it late. 

KEEPING IT SIMPLE (7) put in an impressive effort when sitting without cover and running fourth first up from a spell. She couldn’t back that up last start when finding the front and appearing to have every chance when running fourth. She should secure a good run and be hard to hold out. 

MUM SAID SO (3) was able to secure a good run two starts ago when running on well into second behind Moonshine Milly. She has early speed and may look to press forward again in this race.

SELECTIONS: OUR ULTIMATE BEATY (1), TINTIN IN LOGAN (4), KEEPING IT SIMPLE (7), MUM SAID SO (3)

SUGGESTED BET: TINTIN IN LOGAN (4) each way.

RACE 2 

BOSTON ASSASSIN (2) elected to hand over two starts ago which turned out to be the wrong decision when the leader quickly began to tire before making a break and dragging him out the race. He was then sat up for one run at them last start and made up good ground into third. This looks another suitable race where he can figure in the finish.

MY SWEET ELISE (9) was first up from a spell when leading and running third behind Moonshine Milly. She should be better for that first up outing and coming into this race second up should be hard to hold out with the right run into it.

MULLUM JUDITH (5) led last start and was well beaten when finishing sixth behind Rally Around who has since run well. Appears to have drawn poorly in this race and may get a long way back in the run.

ITS A SPONGE DARL (4) was well beaten in a trial behind Novanta Rising at Albion Park in late July. It has been some time since that trial and the horse comes into this race first up which poses a significant query. His best is good enough for a race of this nature.

SELECTIONS: BOSTON ASSASSIN (2), MY SWEET ELISE (9), MULLUM JUDITH (5), ITS A SPONGE DARL (4)

SUGGESTED BET: IT’S A SPONGE DARL (4) to win.

RACE 3

JIMMY JOYCE (5) has the key draw advantage on a few of his main rivals in this race and may be able to hold that advantage pressing forward early and looking to race in a prominent position. If he was able to lead in this race he would likely take plenty of running down.

ROYAL WINKLE (6) hasn’t been at his best in recent starts. He was able to hold on for third three starts ago at Redcliffe before doing things wrong two starts back at Albion Park. He is capable of running well in this type of run. 

UNIT FORTY ONE (9) ran second to Batman Bart last start at this track after finding the lead and appearing to have every chance. He has done some of his better racing when having something to follow into the race and may get the opportunity to do this in this race.

OUTER CHANGE (8) was able to run second two starts ago when securing a good run at Marburg. She should get a good run through early and if the race is run to suit he can be getting into it late. 

SELECTIONS: JIMMY JOYCE (5), ROYAL WINKLE (6), UNIT FORTY ONE (9), OUTER CHANGE (8)

SUGGESTED BET: JIMMY JOYCE (5) to win.

RACE 4 

HIGHWAY WRITER (3) has been racing reasonably without having had a huge amount of luck in his races in recent starts. He is a horse that doesn’t possess much gate speed and often gets shuffled back in the run but finds a race here where there doesn’t appear to be any brilliant beginners and if he was able to work to the lead he may prove hard to catch.

PINK RIVER DIAMOND (6) looks one of the class runners in this race and is racing quite well by his standards despite what his numerical form would suggest. He has drawn poorly his last two starts and got a long way back in the run. He put in a particularly good effort two back when not beaten far at Albion Park and a similar effort would see him hard to hold out in this race.

VANITY BAY (9) loomed up strongly last start after over racing badly through the run and just got tired late to run fourth. If he could settle a bit better this time and get the right run into the race he will be hard to hold out in this company.

THE BLACK FOX (7) has contested some much stronger races in recent starts and although he has been well beaten he was entitled to be given the class of his rivals. He should find this much easier but he does draw poorly inside the back row and will need luck at the right time to get into the race.

SELECTIONS: HIGHWAY WRITER (3), PINK RIVER DIAMOND (6), VANITY BAY (9), THE BLACK FOX (7)

SUGGESTED BET: HIGHWAY WRITER (3) to win.

RACE 5

HANOVER LECTOR (6) appears well graded in this race. She has had nearly a month between runs coming into this race having been stood down to trial following that run and started in a recent trial where she can fairly finishing midfield. Her best is good enough to take out a race of this nature.

LITTLEMICKEY (10) is a capable sit sprint type horse that has been racing much better than his numerical form suggests. He led three starts ago and was taken on through the middle battling away well for fourth behind Great Achiever. He is likely to be running on late in this race and would appreciate a solid early tempo.

MAGICOL IDEAL (4) has excellent early speed and may look to zip across to the lead in the early stages of the race. He appears to be in the right grade but probably isn’t ideally suited having to burn to the lead early over the 2040 despite having won a race at this track and trip recently leading all the way.

WILLIEWA LIGHTNING (8) didn’t have things go his way last start when interfered with in a couple of false started before getting a long way back in the run and making up some late ground. I think his best efforts are good enough to figure in this race and he can be one to add some value to the exotics.

SELECTIONS: HANOVER LECTOR (6), LITTLEMICKEY (10), MAGICOL IDEAL (4), WILLIEWA LIGHTNING (8)

SUGGESTED BET: LITTLEMICKEY (10) to win.

RACE 6 

IMPERIOUS (6) was able to score an all the way win recently at this track when beating Three Machs who has been in good form. He draws wide in this race but there doesn’t appear much gate speed underneath him in this race from the better chances and if he could work his way to the lead he’d become a good hope in this race.

ROLLONX (9) ran well in a recent trial beating Don’t Fear For Me at this track. He is generally a horse that seems to do his best work when able to get out in front but is well graded enough that he should be running on late if the race is run to suit.

MISS HATTIE (5) was able to run a solid second last start being narrowly beaten after securing a good run from a good draw. She is likely to get a long way back from a wide gate in this race and can be running into it late.

VERMONT (4) returned last start and put in a much better effort after being forced to face the breeze she battled away to run second. She seems to be better when not driven aggressively early and may get back in the run early. 

SELECTIONS: IMPERIOUS (6), ROLLONX (9), MISS HATTIE (5), VERMONT (4)

SUGGESTED BET: MISS HATTIE (5) each way.

RACE 7

PLANET DOWNS (2) is a horse with excellent gate speed and he might be able to launch across early in this race before having options whether he holds or looks to hand over. He put in a good effort last start when securing a good run leaders back and being narrowly beaten by Jive Master who had the momentum down the outside. 

ARNOLD STREET (6) is one of the class runners in this race but draws widest as a result and is either forced to work hard or get back in the run which appears to make things tricky for him. He ran on well last start into fifth at the less suitable 2040 at this track and should be thereabouts again in this race with the right run.

LITTLELIONELJAMES (9) was able to score three starts ago when sitting without cover and proving too good. He is usually a horse that needs to lead or secure a more economical trip to show his best but showed he is well graded and racing in good form breaking that usual pattern to win. He should secure a good run from a soft draw and can be running into it late.

RAINBOW TITAN (1) isn’t blessed with the best gate speed but should still secure a good run in this race from an ideal draw. He has been racing without the best of luck and with better luck int his race can figure.

SELECTIONS: PLANET DOWNS (2), ARNOLD STREET (6), LITTLELIONELJAMES (9), RAINBOW TITAN (1)

SUGGESTED BET: PLANET DOWNS (2) to win.

RACE 8

OUR SWEET JESS (9) looks one of the class runners in the field having taken on some of the better fillies in the state. In this type of grade she has versatility and should be able to be driven to the tempo of the race. She looks hard to beat in this company.

TIGER TOMMY (8) generally does her best work when saved up for one run at them late which she looks likely to get the opportunity to do here. She will be hoping there is speed on early and she can be running into it late.

ART OF ROCK (1) has the draw in this race and has been racing well. He ran a distant second to classy filly The Lady Dior after being held up at a crucial stage. He shouid secure a good run from the soft draw in this race. 

ROCKSNGEMS (5) was able to secure a good run last start and ran out a dominant winner at this track. He has good gate speed but does draw wide and would need to begin very quickly to get across them early. 

SELECTIONS: OUR SWEET JESS (9), TIGER TOMMY (8), ART OF ROCK (1), ROCKSNGEMS (5) 

SUGGESTED BET: OUR SWEET JESS (9) to win. 

RACE 9

CAPTAINS PICK (8) has been contesting much stronger races in recent outings at Albion Park. His latest effort he finished just 9 metres off So Sirius in a field where there was plenty of depth. He appears likely to get a good run through early on the back of a gate speed horse and should be hard to beat.

MACH ASSASSIN (9) should be able to get a good run into this race from the back row. He is generally a horse that seems to do his best work when saved up for one run at them late off a softer trip but was able to score a somewhat uncharacteristic win recently when doing the work outside the leader and proving too good.

MISTY CREEK (3) hasn’t been at his absolute best in recent starts but was able to run an improved race last start when finishing second to Allmighty Max. He draws reasonably in this race and shouldn’t be far away at the finish if he is able to obtain the right run.

PUMPKIN PAT (2) has excellent early speed but does find a race where there are a few quick beginners drawn the front row including one that’s drawn directly to her inside. She hasn’t been at her best in recent outings and if she isn’t able to cross early she may struggle to get into the race. 

SELECTIONS: CAPTAINS PICK (8), MACH ASSASSIN (9), MISTY CREEK (3), PUMPKIN PAT (2)

SUGGESTED BET: CAPTAINS PICK (8) to win.