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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Apr 24

Form Analysis: Albion Park Apr 24

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

NEEDLE (6)
will look to keep her Qld record of 5 wins from 5 starts in tact here and looks well placed in this line-up from the 20m to remain undefeated. She has been able to do it tough in the run at her past 2 starts, the latest when getting home in strong sections. She is the yard-stick for these.

ZAIRE DIVA (1) can look to make the most of the front line and being the only runner from that line. She finished best to score here 3 starts back and was hitting the line strongly 2 starts back. With a safe beginning she is in the fight.

SPIRIT WALKER (3) has been top 2 at her past 6 in succession and took them all the way over the longer 2647m trip last start. Safe from the tapes she will be in a perfect position early to challenge.

SPUD (5) resumes from a spell and will find this easier than his last assignment where he took on the DJA series. Within 5m of the winner in the final, if his condition holds out he is right in the mix.

SELECTIONS: NEEDLE (6), ZAIRE DIVA (1), SPIRIT WALKER (3), SPUD (5)
SUGGESTED BET: NEEDLE (6) to win

RACE TWO

CAPITALIZE (1) pressed ahead from gate 5 at his debut last week and after finding the breeze then received cover and he worked home well for 3rd. The experience from that run and the improved gate work in his favour and he can breakthrough.

CHERRYS THE BEST (6) has placed in 2 of her 3 career starts with both of those coming from wide gates. Last start she did all the work in the run and went within a nose of the win. The gate hurts again but she can throw down a big challenge.

SMART AS CAMM BE (5) started fav last week off gate 1 and didn’t have the speed to hold top. Finishing off the race n good order she was beaten 2.5m. The small field suits and she will be charging home in the closing stages.

SELECTIONS: CAPITALIZE (1), CHERRYS THE BEST (6), SMART AS CAMM BE (5)
SUGGESTED BET: CAPITALIZE (1) to win

RACE THREE

MISTA NATURAL (3) will take good benefit from his latest start when resuming from a freshen where he found running line cover and held his ground to the finish in a tidy closing 800m. With good early speed he can look to light the lamps and gets his chance to regather winning form.

THE CARINGBAH KID (9) had looked like he had found his race after a run of outs and coming with a closing challenge went within a head of the winner SLIPASLYGRIN. That was from the same gate he faces here and having met stronger types recently he once again looks to get every chance.

HAVETOGETAWAYMORE (1) loves a soft trip on the pegs and the make a closing charge and gets conditions to suit here. She flashed home from well back last start and from the ace gate will be probing for gaps.

REGAL NIGHTSHADE (4) took on a 2nd division qualifier last start and worked to the line in good order when wide off the track. A winner 5 starts back in a similar type race, he might just need to work too hard here.

SELECTIONS: MISTA NATURAL (3), THE CARINGBAH KID (9), HAVETOGETAWAYMORE (1), REGAL NIGHTSHADE (4)
SUGGESTED BET: MISTA NATURAL (3) to win

RACE FOUR

OUR MAJOR DAY (8)
speared across from gate 5 to find the front over the mile last start and once in control was never in danger as a red figure fav. That was his 1st run in a month and will be stalking them every step here and if he can get to the lane with momentum looks mighty hard to stop.

THUNDER MAC (1) resumes from a freshen after leading all the way over the 2138m trip here last start and dictating had 9m to spare on the line. He trialled in good order at Marburg to sharpen and from the gate will be trying to fight them off.

JACKS AT THE BEACH (6) will appreciate getting back to the mile after putting in a game effort last start over the 2138m cutting the breeze. He can get forward again here and can apply the acid.

KEY LARGO (4) is a talented 4YO resuming from a break after having a 3 start campaign in January. Beaten a half-head over the 2138m in a Rising Stars heat 2 starts back he will take good benefit from the run.

SELECTIONS: OUR MAJOR DAY (8), THUNDER MAC (1), JACKS AT THE BEACH (6), KEY LARGO (4)
SUGGESTED BET: OUR MAJOR DAY (8) to win

RACE FIVE

CHANGEOVERME (1) went back from gate 6 last start and found cover on the pegs and then found the line strongly in running some strong closing panels. A winner 4 starts back along the passing lane after starting from inside the 2nd line, he has the options with his best gate this preparation.

THATS HOW WEROLL (8) will have the early option as the sole 2nd line runner to get off the pegs early if need be. Last start from inside the 2nd line he followed the speed and taking the closing shot in the stretch went within a head of victory. He can go close again here with a pinch of luck.

PROFICIENT (5) has been racing well and somehow was able to go to the post at $79.80 on the UBET tote on Sat night in a qualifier. Working to the front after 900m he was able to hold on a take a strong victory. In great touch he cannot be under-estimated.

JUST SAY GO (2) had been waiting to land a gate in the right race and last week was able to and from gate 1 took them all the way, running home a nice closing 800m from the front. He can fire the 1st shot and is in the thick of this.

SELECTION: CHANGEOVERME (1), THATS HOW WEROLL (8), PROFICIENT (5), JUST SAY GO (2)
SUGGESTED BET: CHANGEOVERME (1) to win

RACE SIX

PARISIAN ROCKSTAR (4)
has been thereabouts and doing an OK job from some tricky gates and then 2 starts back looked to have found his race in a 2nd division qualifier and was sent to the post as fav when beaten 7m behind PLAYNSERIOUS. He can look to find position early and sneak away with this.

OCEANS PREDATOR (8) will need a good dose of luck from this gate as he looks likely to be buried in the run. Resuming from a break in a 2nd div qualifier 2 starts back he sprinted sharply once he saw space to snare a nice win. 2m from the winner in a qualifier last start he just needs some space.

PSYCHEDELIC (7) secured a hat-trick of victories here 2 starts back when finishing over the tip to score in a Rising Stars final. Taking the trail last start as the fav he finished 5m from BODHI TREE. The gate hurts.

MACHIN OUT (3) has been winless for some time now but his past few starts have been encouraging. He found the line well in a 2nd division band 5 event on Sat night behind TOP TRIO and can take an early shot here to get forward. Settling handy he has place claims.

SELECTIONS: PARISIAN ROCKSTAR (4), OCEANS PREDATOR (8), PSYCHEDELIC (7), MACHIN OUT (3)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE SEVEN

RED CHARMER (10) has the tough gate to overcome but she is a quality filly looking to complete a hat-trick of victories. Last start she sprinted sharply when the gaps opened to take out a Gold Pot final after a tough win from gate 7 in the heat. Look for her storming over the top.

PINUP BOY (6) will strip fitter following his return to the track last week following a spell. Forced to work hard in the run he battled to the line to be 3m from the winner. Beaten 6m behind FAME ASSURED at his last run before a spell, he has podium claims in this.

COME OUT AND PLAY (1) started his career in great order and secured 3 wins from his 1st 5 starts all at Redcliffe. With a tidy trial to prepare for his maiden AP appearance, the gate works in his favour.

NEVERHAVEIEVER (9) made the most of a cosy trip at Redcliffe 2 starts back to land a knock-out win up the passing lane. She worked hard in the run last start and with even luck can place in this.

SELECTIONS: RED CHARMER (10), PINUP BOY (6), COME OUT AND PLAY (1), NEVERHAVEIEVER (9)
SUGGESTED BET: RED CHARMER (10) to win

RACE EIGHT

RUHTREBO (5)
will strip fitter from his return to the track when finding the front from gate 4 and then releasing before finishing over the top in the stretch. That was his 1st run since the Triad final at 2YO and from a similar gate can look to apply some early pressure before going back-to-back.

TUESDAYS FELLA (8) started from this gate last week and looked to need plenty of luck in the run and was able to have some go his way in securing the position behind the leader. He needs plenty of luck again in this but can look to close strongly when the gaps arrive.

ARCH EMPRESS (10) resumes from a break and steps out for trainer Kylie Rasmussen for the 1st time. With 2 trials under her girth she gets no favours from the gate but showed she has her share of ability when last in and stays under notice.

IFOUNDTHEBEACH (3) was having a shot for the front last start at Redcliffe and after trying to secure position had to restrain to find space in the run. He can look for the pegs here and lighting the lamps will take some stopping.

SELECTIONS: RUHTREBO (5), TUESDAYS FELLA (8), ARCH EMPRESS (10), IFOUNDTHEBEACH (3)
SUGGESTED BET: RUHTREBO (5) to win

RACE NINE

RORY MACH (1)
doesn’t win out of turn but looks to get conditions to suit here. Doing his best when saved for a closing shot, he can look to take cover and once the gaps open be sprinting hard. Luckless 2 starts back he ened up too far back in the claiming final on Sat night. This looks ideal.

WATTLEBANK FLYER (4) drops into the claiming ranks for the 1st time after a last start 3rd when beaten a neck behind BET IM SPECIAL after using the passing lane. He took them all the way at Redcliffe 2 starts back and can look to find the pegs and dictate here.

NUREYEV (5) was hitting the line strongly here 2 starts back and was 1.5m from the winner MAYWYNS BEST. He did plenty of work in the heat of the latest claiming challenge and faded out in the latter stages. In this grade he can challenge.

MAX RICHTER (7) started from gate 12 in Saturdays Claiming challenge final and was settled a long way back in the pack and with 400m to go was over 20m from the lead pair and was 6 wide rounding the home turn. He can be sharper here.

SELECTIONS: RORY MACH (1), WATTLEBANK FLYER (4), NUREYEV (5), MAX RICHTER (7)
SUGGESTED BET: RORY MACH (1) to win