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  4. Form Analysis: Redcliffe Apr 11

Form Analysis: Redcliffe Apr 11

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

LETHAL PROMISE (8)
did everything right at his return to Qld after joining the Grant Dixon barn and from gate 1 was never in danger in scoring a comfortable 8m victory. Despite the 2nd line gate he looks to get his chance once again and with some front line tempo can power over the top.

ONE TO TANGO (1) does her best work when buried on the pegs and saved for one shot via the passing lane. With conditions to suit from the ace gate she can look to turn around some sub-par runs in stronger line-ups and be ready to strike.

KAANAPALI (3) has been off the 2nd line at his past 2 starts which haven’t suited his best pattern. 5 starts back he looked to take them all the way from gate 2 when 5m in arrears of the winner BARON JUJON and from this gate can fire the 1st shot and look to grip on.

SONNY ORLANDO (5) has shown some nice improvement and from gate 4 worked home well out wide to grab the silver behind THE FORMULA ONE over the 1780m trip here 3 starts back. A tidy winner in restricted company at his next outing his last start 3rd behind MACH SAM was a strong effort.

SELECTIONS: LETHAL PROMISE (8), ONE TO TANGO (1), KAANAPALI (3), SONNY ORLANDO (5)
SUGGESTED BET: LETHAL PROMISE (8) to win

RACE TWO

VILLAGE CRUISER (7) will need plenty of luck here but does look to get in well here. Fitter from 2 runs back from a break, he was grabbed on the post in a Marburg Goldstrike heat and then made a meal of the start in the final. In an open field he is worth a ticket if able to force into space.

WEASEL (10) has been working home in his races and will need to come with a closing challenge again here from the gate. Sent forward from gate 6 over the sprint trip 3 starts back he was fighting hard when beaten a head and won’t be too far away again in this line-up.

ANN MATTGREGOR (9) In good form last prep where she made 4 successive Gold Pot finals, she is not without hope here.

LOCKTON ART (8) had been racing well without a great deal of luck and then made the most of the chances at Marburg last start when controlling the tempo all the way from the front. With even luck she can be around the money again.

SELECTIONS: VILLAGE CRUISER (7), WEASEL (10), ANN MATTGREGOR (9), LOCKTON ART (8)
SUGGESTED BET: VILLAGE CRUISER (7) each-way

RACE THREE

CAMIVISTA (4) has been in the money at his past 2 starts when working home in the closing stages on both occasions. He has the benefit of a front-line gate this time and with this line-up looking to be a shade below what he has been facing he gets his chance for an overdue breakthrough.

HOT DOGMA (1) finished best of a chasing pack behind the big winner BANGKOK BRAVADO 4 starts back and his runs since have been from gate 6, 6 and 9. With the options from the ace gate he can be perfectly poised and gets his chance to cash-in.

COLADA RAINBOW (5) settled with running line cover last start and held on for a 3m 3rd behind FEELINGFORAMIRACLE. He can roll forward early to find position and has place claims again.

ARMBROS LAD (3) 2 starts back off gate 6 he was 8m from the winner ARCHIECANO and from this gate can settle handy and finish in the money.

SELECTIONS: CAMIVISTA (4), HOT DOGMA (1), COLADA RAINBOW (5), ARMBROS LAD (3)
SUGGESTED BET: CAMIVISTA (4) to win

RACE FOUR

MACH SAM (4)
has started the punters elect in 4 of his past 5 outings and been in the top 3 at 5 of his past 6. From the 2nd line last time out he worked home strongly over the 2040m trip to arrive in time for a neck victory. There looks to be some early pressure off the front and finding position he can arrive over the top.

WESTERN JEWELS (2) was a winner from the pocket trail 5 starts back and then 3 starts back was working hard in the run from the breeze when proving too strong. Forget her past 2 starts where she has struck trouble in each, she is in the mix here.

HEAVENS HINT(1) was working home in good order last start from gate 5 here over the 1780m trip and with a cosy trip here can be an improver.

SHERIFF JUJON (7) Beaten 2.5m from the pocket trail behind COULDNTBETOLD 2 starts back he found the line well from gate 6 last start and has exotic prospects.

SELECTIONS: MACH SAM (4), WESTERN JEWELS (2), HEAVENS HINT(1), SHERIFF JUJON (7)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE FIVE

NOVENA ROSE (10) lands a tricky gate here but finds a race no harder than what she rounded up last time out at AP when finishing over the top after settling well back in the pack from gate 7. 2nd up from a long break and since arriving in Qld she can look to repeat that run and finish over the top.

OMINOUS FLYER (7) will strip fitter following a long break and returning from this same gate last time out. Chasing hard all the way he held on for the bronze behind LETHAL PROMISE. With another soft trip he will be probing for the gaps to issue a challenge.

DIAMONDSFROMHEAVEN (9) Her last start was behind the clear-out winner BANGKOK BRAVADO and she has some claims in this line-up.

MAKE A POINT (3) resumes from a freshen and limiting the early burn he can be thereabouts.

SELECTIONS: NOVENA ROSE (10), OMINOUS FLYER (7), DIAMONDSFROMHEAVEN (9), MAKE A POINT (3)
SUGGESTED BET: NOVENA ROSE (10) to win

RACE SIX

MICKEE CULLEN (1)
resumes for his 3YO term after a six-start 2YO season that returned a pair of wins. Last seen in the Brisbane APG Final when landing a wide gate and finishing down the line behind PINUP BOY he has trialled well and looks to have his chance 1st up.

NEVERHAVEIEVER (7) has race fitness to call on and will follow the 1 every step and look to out-sprint him with the closing shot. A passing lane winner 4 starts back she followed that with a 1.5m 4th and worked home against the tempo last time. She will be coiled and ready to strike.

DATSGOOD (8) With 2 trials to prepare for her return she can take the soft run early and come with a closing sprint.

REACTOR ONE (9) will see the running line for the 1st time after starting from the inside at his 2 career runs. Beaten 2m on debut behind ONYA DOUG from the pocket trail he has exotic claims.

SELECTIONS: MICKEE CULLEN (1), NEVERHAVEIEVER (7), DATSGOOD (8), REACTOR ONE (9)
SUGGESTED BET: MICKEE CULLEN (1) to win

RACE SEVEN

WAVEDANCER (3) has placed in 5 of 6 appearances this season with the latest a handy effort behind HEAVENS HURRICANE. Sent to the breeze from gate 3 he fought well to hold the silver. With the front-line advantage over the main danger he can look to capitalise.

ALWAYS A JEWEL (8) was a winner from gate 6 here 5 starts back when coming with a well-timed run and cruise by to an 8m victory. Beaten a neck as a red figure fav 2 starts back her last start had merit and she gets her chance in this line-up.

TAFFY BOY (2) He can settle handy from this gate and has place claims.

COBLA MADONNA (5) 4 starts back she didn’t have the best of luck when 3rd behind a tear-away winner and has some hope from the wide gate.

SELECTIONS: WAVEDANCER (3), ALWAYS A JEWEL (8), TAFFY BOY (2), COBLA MADONNA (5)
SUGGESTED BET: WAVEDANCER (3) to win

RACE EIGHT
 

BETTOR BECAUSE (8) has faced the starter on 3 occasions with the last 2 when starting from gate 1. Too far back against the tempo from gate 6 on debut, she has found them a touch smarter at this stage her past 2. Despite the 2nd line, the race experience and back to Redcliffe are in her favour.

SHESFEELINPRECIOUS (1) started from the 2nd line last week at her debut and the weather conditions and the tempo certainly didn’t help anything back in the run. Moving to the front line she has the options here and stays under notice.

SAMS THE BEST (6) led them up here last week and was only grabbed by the smart looking JOVIAL JULIE on the line. The wide gate hurts.

CALL ME CRYSTAL (7) is a Lanercost filly on debut for Kylie Rasmussen. Trialling well against older horses, she will enjoy a great trip from the gate and if able to see space when needed will be in the thick of it.

SELECTIONS: BETTOR BECAUSE (8), SHESFEELINPRECIOUS (1), SAMS THE BEST (6), CALL ME CRYSTAL (7)
SUGGESTED BET: BETTOR BECAUSE (8) to

RACE NINE

HIGH CLOUD LASS (2)
knows how to be the runner-up, having finished 2nd in 7 of her past 8 starts. The latest of those cam at AP when working home from running line cover when 5m from ZAIRE DIVA. A safe beginner she can muster early to find the front and this looks her chance to salute.

DAENERYS STORMBORN (6) had put together a top record that had seen her win 4 of 5 starts for the season and beaten a head in the other. Given a break to ready for the McNeil Series she returned for the 1st round heats and has not been seen since. Resuming here, despite the 30m she is in the mix.

IVANOV (8) Normally a safe beginner he can make light work of the impost and feature.

DOWN UNDER RORS (1) has some hope with a soft trip.

SELECTIONS: HIGH CLOUD LASS (2), DAENERYS STORMBORN (6), IVANOV (8), DOWN UNDER RORS (1)
SUGGESTED BET: HIGH CLOUD LASS (2) to win