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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Feb 16

Form Analysis: Albion Park Feb 16

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter. 

RACE ONE

STATEMENT PLEASE (6)
started from inside the 2nd line last week and was sent forward to find the breeze. She faded off to be down the line behind DAPPER BESSIE. That followed 2nds at 3 of her previous 4 starts and although she faces a tricky gate she can come with the closing shot.

GRIZZLY MONTANA (1) was buried on the pegs last start from this same gate and hit the line in good order once he saw some space. That followed a fast finishing burst when sent back from gate 6 and closing out hard. He will be steaming home if he can see space.

SELECTIONS: STATEMENT PLEASE (6), GRIZZLY MONTANA (1), GOT THE GOODS (5), MAHALO (9)
SUGGESTED BET: STATEMENT PLEASE (6) to win

RACE TWO

NEEDLE (3) will take good benefit from her sole Aus start when he found the line strongly after making an early error to score a 4m victory. She has trialled twice to keep ticking over for this series, the 2nd of those from the tapes when stepping cleanly and hit the line nicely. Just needs to step.

ASTRAL RULER (8) had shown talent in winning successive starts when arriving from NZ back in Nov and then managed to qualify for the DJA final where he made an error. Given a freshen prior to this series, he worked home strongly from a 40m impost at Redcliffe over the 1780m trip. Big danger.

SELECTIONS: NEEDLE (3), ASTRAL RULER (8), JUSTABITCOCO (11), SPIRIT WALKER (7)
SUGGESTED BET: NEEDLE (3) to win

RACE THREE

OUTLAW FELLA (8) worked forward from gate 5 last start in a band 5 event and applying the acid in the run worked hard to fall a nose short of the win over the 2138m. As the only runner he can get away from the pegs early if need be and with there looking to be good tempo can overpower them late.

WITH AUTHORITY (1) will be tightened from his return from a break when taking on a qualifier last Saturday. Sitting 3-wide the trip from gate 7 his condition gave out. His form prior to spelling was strong including a heat win and then a 3rd in the final of an M0 Rising Stars. Right in the fight.

SELECTIONS: OUTLAW FELLA (8), WITH AUTHORITY (1), CHERISH THE MOMENT (6), MASTER WIZARD (2)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-2-6-8

RACE FOUR

NORTHERN MUSCLE (10)
was sent for a break in early December with this series firmly on his radar. Winning successive races over the 2138m trip from 10m marks on a quick back-up he has shown that he can work in his races. Trialling in good style to prepare, he looks a smart type and can return with a win
SOUTHERN ALPS (3) made the most of the big class drop from the DJA to a restricted event at Redcliffe when stepping straight to the front and holding on for a comfortable win. Forget his last run when making an error, from the front line he can look to go to the front and fight all the way.

SELECTIONS: NORTHERN MUSCLE (10), SOUTHERN ALPS (3), QUIETLY SPOKEN (9), DAENERYS STORMBORN (5),
SUGGESTED BET: NORTHERN MUSCLE (10) to win

RACE FIVE

MONKSEATON (1) took on a mares qualifier 2 starts back and after landing the pocket trail found the line nicely in a 27.5 closer to take the silver. Finding running line cover last start she was hampered by a tiring runner. A good beginner she can look to dictate the terms early.

PROFICIENT (6) took on a 2138m event on Tues and despite looking to be struggling 400m from home he continued to fight to the line and picked up the bit again to get within 4m of the winner. That followed a tough run at Marburg and he can apply some pressure here and find the podium.

SELECTIONS: MONKSEATON (1), PROFICIENT (6), FIRE ONE (8)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE SIX

DEANO ROBYN (5)
has placed 3rd at his past 2 starts in similar type claiming races over both the 1660m and the 2138m trip. Last time he was making good closing ground and with 4 runs back from a spell should be fully wound up and ready to land a blow here.

LONG ROAD TO FAME (2) held the front from gate 1 to take them all the way in a qualifier and was only 3m from RUBYS BAD BOY at his next outing in the claiming grade. Beaten by the gate and tempo when going back last start, he can look for the pegs and is a chance here.

SELECTIONS: DEANO ROBYN (5), LONG ROAD TO FAME (2), FLOYD MAYWEATHER (1), GOTTA GLOW (7)
SUGGESTED BET: Wide exotics

RACE SEVEN

INVINCIBLE LOXTON (5) brutalised his opponents last start when rolling forward from gate 4 to find the front over the 2138m trip and then once in control kept them rolling including a 55.6 last 800m to run away from them. Freshened since that run he can roll forward here and looks too strong.

THE MUSE (1) scored a win in a mares qualifier on Sat night when sitting outside FIRE ONE after starting from gate 4 and pulled away from them in the stretch to land a 9m victory. 3 starts back she just missed TOP TRIO up the passing lane and will be right in the mix with the run here.

SELECTIONS: INVINCIBLE LOXTON (5), THE MUSE (1), CHARMS ON A ROLL (11), BELLA RIPPIN (8)
SUGGESTED BET: INVINCIBLE LOXTON (5) to win

RACE EIGHT

OUR MELS DREAM (4)
has found his mojo again and has been top-2 at his past 5 in succession including a hat-trick of wins leading into this. Making the most of an early scrimmage he rushed forward to find the lead and was never headed last time out. He can roll forward to find position and finish over the top here.

BULL MARKET (8) drops back to the claiming ranks and faces a tough gate for his style. Set alight in a mid-race rush over the 2138m it was the winning move as he then was untroubled to score. If he can see space with track time he is a huge threat.

SELECTIONS: OUR MELS DREAM (4), BULL MARKET (8), SUPALINER (1), SHAREAPASSION (3)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-3-4-8