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  4. Form Analysis: Redcliffe May 16

Form Analysis: Redcliffe May 16

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

DAPPER (2)
was buried away in the run last start from gate 10 and was making good closing ground when 8m from the winner MR MEDDLE. A good 3rd when going back from gate 4 here 3 starts back he returns to the main draw and from the gate can look to sneak away with the prize in a tough opener.
 
MISTER FANTANGLES (1) found the pocket trail last start from gate 2 and held on behind the big winner ARTIKUKLATE MISS.  A passing lane winner 4 starts back over the 1780m trip he followed that with a 6m 3rd to MONIVAE. The gate helps his chances here.

MR MEDDLE (4) found running line position from the 2nd line last start and made the most of his chances to run home too good for the win. He had been building towards that and with the confidence is in the mix again.

ARTIKULATE MISS (10) is banished to the 2nd line after causing a false start last time out. On the 2nd attempt she held the front and took them all the way for a comfortable 11m victory. Shooting for a hat-trick she can feature.

SELECTIONS: DAPPER (2), MISTER FANTANGLES (1), MR MEDDLE (4), ARTIKULATE MISS (10)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE TWO

LETHAL PROMISE (7) was 2nd up since returning to Qld last start and was working home wide out to get within a neck of the winner. A comfortable all the way winner at his return he has been freshened since the last run and while he will need some luck from the gate, he can take this.

LIFEINHEAVEN (1) tried to take them all the way last start over this trip and was gripping on until she was grabbed right on the line. From the inside gate she can look to dictate again and will be gripping on in the run.

ARBIT MAJOR (3) was buried away in the run last start and didn’t get a decent shot at them behind SKYFELLA CAM. Only beaten a neck and a half-neck at his previous 2 starts he is right in the mix.

LIVE IT LOUD (4) pressed ahead from gate 6 at Penrith 4 starts back and once finding the front held them all off. A good 2nd last start at Bankstown, she makes her Qld debut for NSW visitor Rickie Alchin and stays under notice.

SELECTIONS: LETHAL PROMISE (7), LIFEINHEAVEN (1), ARBIT MAJOR (3), LIVE IT LOUD (4)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 1-3-4-7

RACE THREE

ROYAL TAZ (2) started from gate 2 last week and was never an early factor when settling with running line cover. From there he couldn’t work into the contest. From the same gate this week he can look for the pegs and from the front he gets every chance in this line-up.

TASCOTT LADY (7) was luckless last start from the 2nd line and when she did see space finished off strongly in the latter stages. She will need a slice of luck from this gate but can be closing out late and fill the minors.
 
LITTLE CHANGE (8) is another of the Rickie Alchin travelling team. He looked to take them all the way at Newcastle 2 starts back when starting fav and run down in the closing stages. He can get a nice trail through and is in the mix.

WECANONLYHOPE (6) has the tough gate to overcome but should find this easier than her past few. She did her share of early work last start at Marburg and that followed a mares qualifier. Can fill the exotics in this.

SELECTIONS: ROYAL TAZ (2), TASCOTT LADY (7), LITTLE CHANGE (8), WECANONLYHOPE (6)
SUGGESTED BET:  

RACE FOUR

KAANAPALI (1)
started from gate 3 here 5 starts back over the mile and didn’t get the cleanest shot when 10m from the winner ONE TO TANGO. In the 4 runs since he has started from the 2nd line, the latest when hitting the line in good order. From the ace gate he gets every chance to dictate.

MAJOR TRALEE (7) flashed home from back in the pack to score a good win here 5 starts back and in the 4 runs since found the line nicely behind GLENFERRIE DUSTER 3 starts back. With the perfect cosy trip he will be looking for the gaps late and looks a good quinella play.

OMINOUS FLYER (2) has now had 4 starts back after close to 12 months off the scene and should be nearing a fitness peak. Luckless when looking for space last start at Marburg that followed a 3m 2nd when pressing ahead over the 1780m trip. He is right in this.

VILLAGE CRUISER (3) looked to have found his race last start at Marburg but when stranded 3-wide could only get within 8m of the winner. He looks likely to work again here and has place hopes.

SELECTIONS: KAANAPALI (1), MAJOR TRALEE (7), OMINOUS FLYER (2), VILLAGE CRUISER (3)
SUGGESTED BET: KAANAPALI / MAJOR TRALEE (1/7) quinella

RACE FIVE

THE FORMULA ONE (1) went straight to the front off the three-hole here 3 starts back over this same trip and after walking the opening 800m was never in danger in scoring a 3m win. A tidy 5m 3rd to ARTIKULATE MISS 2 starts back he was too far back from gate 6 last week. From the gate he looks hard to stop.

MO JARNEY (4) is racing well and was the only runner to make any real impression on the leading pair when closing out late from back in the pack after starting from a 2nd line gate. That made it 4 successive placings and with even luck will be in the mix again here.

NICKY MATTGREGOR (7) was buried away 3 starts back and worked home nicely when 7m from the winner. Forget her next run when striking trouble, last start she was grabbed right on the wire. With the cosy trip she will take a closing shot.

ROCKNROLL PROMISE (9) is in good touch and been top 3 at each of his past 6 starts. Last start he was a long way back when running on late to grab the bronze and will be looking to swoop late here.

SELECTIONS: THE FORMULA ONE (1), MO JARNEY (4), NICKY MATTGREGOR (7), ROCKNROLL PROMISE (9)
SUGGESTED BET: THE FORMULA ONE (1) to win

RACE SIX

MY MAGIC MERLIN (9)
will be further tightened from his run in the Triad consolation when 2nd up from a break. Sent forward from the 2nd line to the breeze the effort had merit over the 2138m. He can get forward again here and looks to get his chance.

PARKLANE LASS (10) made the most of gate 1 last start and was able to take them all the way in scoring by a half-head. The gate dents her chances but with some confidence from the victory she can look to trail home late to find the podium.

MAJORESS JUJON (5) will strip fitter following a successful 1st up run last start when returning after a 7 month break. That was a restricted race when working home strongly of this same gate. She is in the mix.

BETTERTHAN TORQUE (7) will need a slice of luck from this gate as she looks in danger of being buried in the run. She looked to take them all the way from gate 4 at AP last start when run-down late. Has exotic hopes.

SELECTIONS: MY MAGIC MERLIN (9), PARKLANE LASS (10), MAJORESS JUJON (5), BETTERTHAN TORQUE (7)
SUGGESTED BET: MY MAGIC MERLIN (9) to win

RACE SEVEN

COME OUT AND PLAY (6) has the tough gate to overcome here but has been meeting harder line-ups than what he takes on here. Only beaten 2m behind COREY WILLIAM last start he was 3.5m from PINUP BOY 3 starts back with both those running the trifecta behind COLT THIRTY ONE in the 3YO Triad final. He can take this.

ITS ALLABOUT ALICE (5) was a Tamworth winner 2 starts back when jumping from gate 5 and finishing best to score. Looking to take them all the way from gate 1 last start she was 7m from BIG BEAT. The gate hurts but is right in the fight.

ART SECRET (7) will need a slice of luck from this gate but did everything right at her Qld debut last start when leading throughout. Fitter from that run when 1st up in two months she has some hope here.

CAUSE A BIG SCENE (4) returns to the draw after a barrier indiscretion saw him banished to the outside. With good early speed he can look to get into the contest early and has some claims in an open contest.

SELECTIONS: COME OUT AND PLAY (6), ITS ALLABOUT ALICE (5), ART SECRET (7), CAUSE A BIG SCENE (4)
SUGGESTED BET: COME OUT AND PLAY (6) to win

RACE EIGHT

SOUTHERN ALPS (5)
pressed ahead from the 40m tape last start at AP over the 2138m trip and from the breeze was too strong to score a good win. He made up a stack of ground here after making an early error 2 starts back when resuming from a spell to grab 3rd behind OLE SUN. He can get forward quickly from the 20m and looks hard to stop.

OLE SUN (4) shoots for the hat-trick after successive wins here from the mobile and then last start at Marburg from a 10m impost. Quick away from the tapes last start he can look to be safely away again here and is right in the fight.

HIGH CLOUD LASS (3) has been consistent without winning and has been in the money at 10 of her past 12 starts. Working hard in the run at Marburg last start she finished 8m from OLE SUN to hold the bronze. From the 10m she will be in the mix again.

GO AHEAD MAKEMYDAY (6) worked home well off running line cover at Marburg last start to finish 4m from OLE SUN. Better suited here than last start at AP, he can fill the exotics.

SELECTIONS: SOUTHERN ALPS (5), OLE SUN (4), HIGH CLOUD LASS (3), GO AHEAD MAKEMYDAY (6)
SUGGESTED BET: SOUTHERN ALPS (5) to win

RACE NINE

DONT BE JEALOUS (2)
was 1st up in almost 12 months at Marburg last start and was forced to work in the run when cutting the breeze and fighting to the line to go under by a head. She had been meeting some handy types during her 3YO term when last in and from this gate she can cash-in.

FRENCH DIVA (8) has placed in both career runs to date and was working home in good order from back in the pack last start. A passing lane 2nd to BIG BEAT on debut, look for her swooping home late.

GRIZZLY MONTANA (7) will be sweating on the 1 holding the front and then getting him to the passing lane with momentum. If that scenario eventuates he will be ready to issue the closing challenge. Buried away in the Triad consolation behind ARK PATROL, he just needs the space.

WEDDING NIGHT (1) led them up from gate 2 last start before fading out to finish mid-field behind MAJORESS JUJON. With good early speed she can look to repel the challengers and will be gripping on.

SELECTIONS: DONT BE JEALOUS (2), FRENCH DIVA (8), GRIZZLY MONTANA (7) WEDDING NIGHT (1)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 1-2-7-8