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Form Analysis: Redcliffe May 3

FORM ANALYSIS BY DARREN CLAYTON - @DASHMAN01

 

Speed maps are based on recent and anticipated racing patterns. For important changes of tactics which may affect the accuracy of this speed map follow @QRICstewards on Twitter.

RACE ONE

ANNAS BEST (1)
showed the benefit of getting back into a slightly easier contest last start and returned a much better effort. Her form prior had been in tougher races from bad gates and 3 of her past 5 have been in mares qualifiers. From gate 1 she gets her chance to go all the way.

RUFFALO (7) has been in the money at his past 3 starts including a win on the grass at Kilcoy 2 starts back. Last week he chased home the all the way winner INVITE ONLY after working hard in the run and holding on for 2nd. With a great trip behind the speed he can take the closing shot.

LUVU GRAZAELLA (3) worked forward from gate 4 last start and cut the breeze when finishing 11m from GLENFERRIE DUSTER. Her run 3 back behind ROCK WITH SAM was good and she has some hope.

COME OUT AND PLAY (5) has the wide gate to contend with but will take good benefit from his last start when resuming from a break. Only 3.5m from PINUP BOY last start he is in the mix.

SELECTIONS: ANNAS BEST (1), RUFFALO (7), LUVU GRAZAELLA (3), COME OUT AND PLAY (5)
SUGGESTED BET: ANNAS BEST (1) to win

RACE TWO

BALTIC BLUE EYES (3) went to the front with ease last start when looking to take them all the way over the 2138m trip. After walking the opening 800m, she set a good closing tempo when run-down in the latter stages. That followed 3 2nd line draws and with good early speed she can fire out and look to dictate.

BUDDY BABCOCK (6) has the wide gate to overcome here but has been in great form here at Redcliffe with a top 3 finish at his past 6 starts in succession. With a half-neck to spare last start after using the passing lane to score, he will be right in the mix despite the alley.

MACH TORQUE (5) resumes from a break and was last seen when leading throughout from gate 2 over the 2040m trip back in February. She was given a trial to prepare and has claims in this.

MAHALO (4) made the most of an improved gate to score 4 starts back here recently. Beaten 5m at AP last start, she gets a chance from this gate to settle close to the tempo and has some claims.

SELECTIONS: BALTIC BLUE EYES (3), BUDDY BABCOCK (6), MACH TORQUE (5), MAHALO (4)
SUGGESTED BET: BALTIC BLUE EYES (3),

RACE THREE

NOT ALWAYS (1) was a Marburg winner 3 starts to shake off the maiden tag and then came here to Redcliffe as a red figure fav off gate 1. From the pocket trail in that event he was beaten 4m. He gets the chance to look to dictate here and can drive through early to hold the advantage.

TAFFY BOY (3) has placed in 3 of his past 4 starts including a tidy effort last start when 3rd to THE FORMULA ONE. In this line-up he can look to find early position and has some claims in race that is easier than his last outing.

MONTANA EXPRESS (4) make his debut for the Brett Cargill barn and is a 3YO son of Rock N Roll Heaven out of the two-win mare Chalondra. His latest two trials suggest he will be right in contention. Market watch.

CURRUMBINKID (8) returns from a break after being a winner at 2 of his past 4 starts, both at Marburg. The latest win was a good effort after making an error in the run and has podium claims.

SELECTIONS: NOT ALWAYS (1), TAFFY BOY (3), MONTANA EXPRESS (4), CURRUMBINKID (8)
SUGGESTED BET:  NOT ALWAYS (1) to win

RACE FOUR

CAMIVISTA (5)
has been drawn off the 2nd line at his past 2 starts with the most recent when making an error in the run and losing all chance. 4 starts back he finished strongly along the inside to claim the silver behind LETHAL PROMISE. He looks to get his chance in this line-up.

BETTING BARON (3) was looking to work into the race in the closing stages in an Aspirational event taken out by NEWMERELLA SHARKIE. His run 4 back was a sound effort behind TRIJET and returning to Redcliffe after his past 3 at AP he can get forward early and give this a shake.

CHIKA MATTGREGOR (7) returns to Qld debut for Dale Belford after transferring from the Sydney barn of Ian Wilson. Freshened since last seen at Penrith back in March, she will need some luck from this alley.

LIZ AU BETTY (1) will enjoy the cosy trip behind the leader and can look to make a closing play when the gaps arrive. Her lone win came when leading throughout and she has podium hopes from the ace.

SELECTIONS: CAMIVISTA (5), BETTING BARON (3), CHIKA MATTGREGOR (7), LIZ AU BETTY (1)
SUGGESTED BET: CAMIVISTA (5) to win

RACE FIVE

VILLAGE CRUISER (4) pressed forward from gate 6 in the Aspirational on Sat night to look for position and after finding running line cover couldn’t go when the closing sprint went on. Luckless the start prior when carted back by a tiring leader, he looks well placed to sneak away with this.

JANIES GOT A GUN (3) was buried away on the pegs at Marburg 2 starts back and once clear did enough to grab the bronze behind LUCKY NED PEPPER. Her lone win since coming to Qld was here at the triangle when working home strongly from gate 6 and she is a big threat.

PONOVER (7) will need a slice of luck from this gate but once in open space he can look to make a closing play to find the podium. 3rd here 3 starts back from the pocket trail he will be probing.

FLASHING GOOD TIME (6) has the wide gate to overcome but still looks to have some hope in this line-up. Luckless at the marble drop in recent starts, she has been coming with a closing run, here effort here 2 starts back a tidy run when 7m from SWAFFHAM WATER.

SELECTIONS: VILLAGE CRUISER (4), JANIES GOT A GUN (3), PONOVER (7), FLASHING GOOD TIME (6)
SUGGESTED BET: VILLAGE CRUISER (4) to win

RACE SIX

DATSGOOD (6)
has the wide gate to overcome as a result of her starting manners but lands an open contest. Her run last start was a strong effort when driving forward to the breeze from this same gate and fighting all the way to the line to go under a nose. Fitter now after 3 runs back.

GOLD REACTOR (4) makes his 3YO return here and has featured in a stable change to now be prepared by Jack Butler. A winner of the Redcliffe Sales Series final 3 starts back he threw his chances out in the Triad final at his last 2YO run last season. He might take a few runs to warm up.

IFOUNDTHEBEACH (5) raced tough last start at AP when facing the breeze and dug in for the fight when finishing 2.5m from the winner PHOTOZEN. In this line-up he can issue a strong challenge.

SISTER FEELGOOD (2) took inside runs last start which saw her land the bronze behind ITSMEGS. Still looking to break the maiden tag she can fill the exotics from this gate in this field.

SELECTIONS: DATSGOOD (6), GOLD REACTOR (4), IFOUNDTHEBEACH (5), SISTER FEELGOOD (2)
SUGGESTED BET: DATSGOOD (6) to win

RACE SEVEN

FALCON VISTA (6) has the wide gate to negotiate yet in an open contest is worth a shot at the stumps against this opposition. Sent forward from gate 4 last start he did his share of early work before cover arrived and was 6m from BONNIE JUJON. Placed in 3 of his past 4 he can sneak this.

LYNCHMAN (10) has placed in 3 of his past 4 also with his run 2 starts back when 3rd to THE FRAME a handy effort after doing some work to work to the front. Luckless last start when carted back behind a tiring leader, he can put his best forward in this line-up to issue a challenge.

CONNIE MATTGREGOR (1) makes her Qld debut for Dale Belford and arrives with just 4 starts to her name. A winner on debut when working hard at Penrith she has been freshened since her last outing when down the line over 2125m.

SOPHIES PRIDE (8) was hitting the line in good order last start when launching a run from well back in the pack. That followed a tough run when fading out in the latter stages. With even luck she has some hope here.

SELECTIONS: FALCON VISTA (6), LYNCHMAN (10), CONNIE MATTGREGOR (1), SOPHIES PRIDE (8)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE EIGHT

LIFEINHEAVEN (3)
sped out form gate 4 here 3 starts back and looked to take them all the way when grabbed in the closing stages by NOVENA ROSE. Starting from the 2nd line at her past 2 starts she can look to make the most of the return to the front and spear out to dictate terms.

THERESACHANCE (1) has started 5 times this prep and been no closer than gate 5 in the past 4 of those. He made an error at his last start, with his best run coming 2 starts back when grabbing the bronze behind MIDNIGHT BENDER. Tightened from his latest run after a 4 week gap he can look to capitalise.

HEY PORSHA (9) was freshened after taking on a mares event 2 starts back and looked to have found her race when returning from gate 1. Leading over the 1780m trip she couldn’t see it out and ended 6m from the winner. Tightened from that she can be closing out here.

MISTER FANTANGLES (6) was the one that run-down HEY PORSHA after using the passing lane to arrive for the win. 3rd in a 2nd division qualifier on Sat night behind MONIVAE, he gets no favours from the gate but is racing well with a top 3 finish in his past 5 starts.

SELECTIONS: LIFEINHEAVEN (3), THERESACHANCE (1), HEY PORSHA (9), MISTER FANTANGLES (6)
SUGGESTED BET: LIFEINHEAVEN (3) to win