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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Sep 18

Form Analysis: Albion Park Sep 18


RACE ONE

The topped-up prizemoney has worked for this race with it being one of the strongest qualifiers for some time. Kept for this race after a slippery first up effort, DEUS EX (2) lands all the favours by landing the good marble. Making his Aus debut on August 17, he was sent to the front over this trip and never in danger thereafter. Fitter for the outing, he has the gate to capitalise.

BALDUCCI (12) heads North for Amanda Turnbull, bringing a smart record that shows 7 wins and 10 minors in 21 outings. A Bathurst winner in slick time over the sprint trip 3 starts back, he has chased behind the smart HES CHIMING at his past 2. The gate is tough but with even luck he can challenge.

KIWIS ARE FLYING (4) is the intriguing runner and faces a task first up from a spell, but he could not have been anymore impressive after arriving in Qld last September. Winning 4 from 4, he went amiss and after a smart trial, tackles this fresh since October 20.

DOUBLE OR NOTHING (1) has been consistent but may have just forgotten what is required to win. Places his past 5 in succession, he has been runner-up his past 2 and the gate is a big aid to his chances.

SELECTIONS: DEUS EX (2), BALDUCCI (12), KIWIS ARE FLYING (4), DOUBLE OR NOTHING (1)
SUGGESTED BET: DEUS EX (2) to win

RACE TWO

There will be good heat generated in front here that should set the profile nicely for a swooper and under that scenario prepared to look a little wider for HENRY HU (9). With 3 runs back from a let up, his past 2 have seen him be sectionally super behind the flying MAKE MINE MEMPHIS on both occasions. Poking through early, he can descend at odds.

JERADAS DELIGHT (6) faces one of the most significant class drops you will see, coming from the G1 Grand Circuit Blacks A Fake into this Band 5 event. Arriving to claim a G1 win against the mares in the Golden Girl, her effort was large in the BAF after striking trouble. Opening the pipes with a smart preparatory trial, she will be charging home.

STREET APPEAL (2) has placed at his past 2 starts when setting the speed in front after charging across from gate 7 on both occasions. Back into the main draw, he should secure an easy lead and if able to pinch a panel or 2 in front can give cheek.

ROYAL AURORA (8) was in the pocket trail last start when forcing into the clear to set out after the leader and running a tidy 3rd. Likely to be buried here, if he can spot a gap, he can be chiming in.

SELECTIONS: HENRY HU (9), JERADAS DELIGHT (6), STREET APPEAL (2), ROYAL AURORA (8)
SUGGESTED BET: HENRY HU (9) each-way

RACE THREE

In super form since arriving in Qld this campaign WAHS FIRE BUG (3) has been in the quinella in all 6 appearances, with 3 of those being victory. Doing it the tough way last start, she was able to graft out victory when parked in slick time. This is a drop in grade, and she looks too classy again.

TOTAL DIVA (1) held the 1x1 trail last week when trying to make a late play, holding the silver behind WAHS FIRE BUG. Releasing from this gate 2 starts back and then grabbing 3rd when 2m from the winner, she has all the options from the gate to throw it down.

WHICH HUNT (5) has hit the board at her past 5 on the bounce with the past 3 being in this mare’s qualifying grade. Within 2m of the winner last start, she can be chiming in again in this.

FAIRIESDELIGHT (2) tried to take them all the way in midweek company 2 starts back when grabbed in the closing stages. Buried in this grade last start and closing nicely when a gap did open, she can be close enough to feature.

SELECTIONS: WAHS FIRE BUG (3), TOTAL DIVA (1), WHICH HUNT (5), FAIRIESDELIGHT (2)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE FOUR

All the favours have fallen with TURN IT UP (1) on paper, as he lands the gate and a small field that looks devoid of any tempo. That should allow him to punch through off the arm and from the front looks set to take his record to 15 wins in 30 starts. Only 5m from COPY THAT in the Sunshine Sprint 2 starts back when leading from gate 7, he can return from a let up in style.

REPLACED EYE (5) is a newcomer to the Qld FFA ranks, joining the Trent Dawson stable. He does have previous experience here at The Creek where 5 starts have netted a win and 3 minors. Resuming from a spell, he was given a good pipe opener at the trials and the small field should help first up.

OUR UNCLE SAM (3) eased away from the inside here 2 starts back to produce at the right time in claiming a narrow victory. Tyring to stick on after sitting parked in a 51.1-mile last start, he might need to do it tough again in this field.

SELECTIONS: TURN IT UP (1), REPLACED EYE (5), OUR UNCLE SAM (3)
SUGGESTED BET: TURN IT UP (1) to win

RACE FIVE

With the options as the lone 2nd line runner in his favour, SAM IS PERFECTION (8) should relish the return to old-timers’ grade after tackling the FFA ranks at his past 2. Overcoming gate 7 in this grade 3 starts back, he was then poking through against the poles when 8m from OUR UNCLE SAM. The speed was too slick last start behind MACH DA VINCI, but this looks ideal.

UNDER WORKED (3) joins the Ron Sallis stable and arrives as a last start Menangle winner when charging home from back in the pack for a smart win. Asked to grind it out when 3rd to ZAHVEN BANNER 4 starts back and finds the right contest to alter his poor record here at The Creek that shows a zero return in six outings.

TWENTYEIGHTBLACK (1) sat in the trail last week from this gate over the mile and taking the closing shot could not hit the target when a neck in arrears. Closing hard the start prior, he has the gate to feature.

JONAH JONES (4) was buried in the run here last week and taking a shot up the passing lane charged through to arrive for the prize. A gritty 3rd here 3 starts back, he will be in the mix again here.

SELECTIONS: SAM IS PERFECTION (8), UNDER WORKED (3), TWENTYEIGHTBLACK (1), JONAH JONES (4)
SUGGESTED BET: SAM IS PERFECTION (8) to win

RACE SIX

With a pair of stylish wins at his past 2 starts, WILL THE WIZARD (7) lands the carpark alley as he searches for the hat-trick. Improving off his sub 52 mile from the front 2 starts back, he put on a power running display here last week in running the third fastest mile ever recorded at The Creek. Despite the tough alley, he can wave the wand for the threepeat.

TOMMY LINCOLN (8) has been racing in consistent form and did some early work last week before being best of the chasers behind WILL THE WIZARD. Scoring a smart win here 3 starts back when sent forward from the wide gate to score a strong 3m victory, the 2nd line options help his chances.

PARAVANI (4) has speed out of the machine and from this alley can look to fire an early shot. Pressing forward and finding cover last start, he was not too far from the dictating winner LOMBO HEAVEN and can be thereabouts once again.

NURBURGRING (5) made the most of the cosy trip here 2 starts back to arrive on the wire for the win. Runner-up last start via the passing lane, he can be chiming in here.

SELECTIONS: WILL THE WIZARD (7), TOMMY LINCOLN (8), PARAVANI (4), NURBURGRING (5)
SUGGESTED BET: WILL THE WIZARD (7) to win

 

RACE EIGHT

KEAYANG KREUZER (3)
eased to the fence from this gate last start and was facing a task from back in the pack as LOMBO HEAVEN dictated in front over the mile. Making a closing play when within 3m of NURBURGRING here 2 starts back, if he can settle closer to the action this week, he gets his chance in a race where the map looks iffy.

NOWHERE CREEK (8) grabbed the bronze here 3 starts back when rolling forward before receiving cover and chasing home behind VIRGIL. Cashing in with the perfect trip at his next start when in behind the speed, gate 7 was his undoing last time out. With 2nd line options he can make a challenge.

VIRGIL (7) worked his way back to form and completed a hat-trick of victories when leading throughout in all 3. Gritty in holding on for the bronze behind WILL THE WIZARD at his next start, not much went his way when not too far away last time. Despite the gate he is right in this.

MISTERFREEZE (6) eased from gate 7 over the mile last start and was too far back in a sharp closing panel to eat into the deficit. A return to the 2138m should suit and a winner from this gate over this trip 2 starts back, he can be chiming in.

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG KREUZER (3), NOWHERE CREEK (8), VIRGIL (7), MISTERFREEZE (6)
SUGGESTED BET: KEAYANG KREUZER (3) to win

 

RACE NINE

Moving away from inside the 2nd line last start in the early stages, SIR FAHRENHEIT (5) was hitting the line smartly when grabbing the silver to be within 2m of the winner. Chasing behind DOUG the start prior when 6m in arrears in a luckless effort, with an even rub of the green, he can arrive.

MORE SHADES OF GOLD (2) made a mess of the start under mobile conditions last week but was still strong to the line when 5m from the winner RED CASTLETON. Making a closing play behind GODOFTHUNDER the start prior, he is safe from the tapes and from this lane can get forward quickly to throw it down.

DOUG (1) was up to his old tricks last week when making an error with his chances expiring in the process. 4m away the start prior when chasing hard over the 2138m, the longer trip is in his favour here. Just cross your fingers and hope.

NORTHERN MUSCLE (8) has grabbed the bronze at his past 2 starts, the latest when asked to do it the tough way in the breeze and only 2m from the winner. Not far away from another win, he can be thereabouts.

SELECTIONS: SIR FAHRENHEIT (5), MORE SHADES OF GOLD (2), DOUG (1), NORTHERN MUSCLE (8)
SUGGESTED BET: SIR FAHRENHEIT (5) to win